Eurovision 2022: Semi Final Two Preview
So here’s the second semi final and for the many bettors out there with books not enjoying the non stop Ukraine shortening it’s a little respite although there’s an even shorter favourite sat at the top of the odds to take this heat. Regarding the semi, I think the entries that qualify in 8th-10th here will be stronger than those that (I assume) did so in semi 1 but overall I don’t think the gap in quality is as big as others. I’m also having an easier time in getting to my 10 than most so I’m cautious of a false confidence. Anyway, on to the predictions:
18. North Macedonia (pre-rehearsals 17th)
I think everyone involved here just wants to go home and be done with this. Nothing is up to standard here unfortunately so lets just move on.
17. Montenegro (pre-rehearsals 16th)
Zero interest here for the televote and juries looking for vocals have options elsewhere in better songs. Serbia the main source of points but will also clean up amongst the diaspora leaving little for this. Unfathomable this was 2.4-3 to qualify for a long time and we’re now at the correct price of 7+
16. Georgia (pre-rehearsals 15th)
Staging is fine but it’s not enough in my view and this is too easy for juries and televoters to dismiss as rubbish rather than some alternative rock experimental piece that it hopes to be. It’s the kind of entry you can’t 100% write off ever just in case it goes down better than expected. I’m strongly against this but having reached the 6s, 7s+ range am happy to trade off a bit. Would be a big surprise but there’s a plausible set of circumstances for it, unlike our first two.
15. Ireland (pre-rehearsals 18th)
Ireland is a distance from qualifying still and it’s from this point on that my surprise at qualification would be bigger than a lot of other bettors. I can’t see how this makes either the jury or televote top 10 so it’s a fairly comfortable NQ for me although not something I have a huge position in. Backers need to remember the pre contest stats for this and question whether the performance, whilst an improvement obviously, is a big enough step up.
14. Israel (pre-rehearsals 13th)
A bit more plausible but still a longshot is Israel. If Latvia was unable to make it from no.2 I see no reason why this should either. It’s performed well and of course being crazily other the top is it’s gimmick but it’s just too easy to mark down, right down, should they be of the more ‘serious’ of types. There’s a niche for it with the televote but that has to be questioned too, perhaps more. Another I don’t have top 10 with either group so it would be a surprise to see them pulled out.
13. Romania (pre-rehearsals 11th)
We saw an Albania overly reliant on diaspora in semi 1 fail to make it and this has looked in a much weaker position than that all season. It’s not performed as poorly but is still jury anathema and stands no chance of being in their top 10. I don’t think the televote will be able to undo the damage probably done last night. Although Romania have never been too far off, this is probably the weakest effort yet in their recent nq streak. A minor surprise were this to make it.
12. Belgium (pre-rehearsals 9th)
This is not a televote qualifier, that much is sure, the structure and presentation of this is just all wrong and offers very little reason to vote for it, a big problem for a country like Belgium with no head start. Jeremie does have a lovely tone of voice but last night was not his best showing or vocal performance and I don’t see much star quality either. To be frank- jurors have better vocal performances, better stagings and much better songs to focus on and should not be pushing this through. The power was with the juries (I assume) in deciding the borderliners on Tuesday and that needs to continue or this is going home early. Value in the NQ.
11. San Marino (pre-rehearsals 14th)
Achille always brings a show and does not disappoint here, to the extent this is probably the minority view that he comes up short despite the odds, or at least it feels that way. The odds have a habit of overestimating the man’s appeal however (seriously, you could have took him at 7s or M&B at 6s in the early San Remo betting this year) and despite money being thrown at this staging is he still too much of a poor man’s Maneskin in the eyes of viewers? The rapturous support for him in the arena is a boost, but Italy are unable to lend any points his way having voted in semi 1. Like Romania- his jury indicators are abysmal and whilst slicker than expected, his staging, image, vocals and song are all turnoffs still and the ranking system does no favours. The televote will need to push him in, and there’s a wide range that could be so he still misses out for me. Not a surprise if he does find a way through and he could be the final qualifier announced if so.
10. Malta (pre-rehearsals 12th)
Not comfortable with this but even if its on a bit early I take the view its a bit of a refresher from the madness of that half rather than completely memory holed. Still, this is another reliant on jury scores but one that might have a bit of a boost in that regard. Gets the nod above San Marino due to being a bit steadier in the scoring but with clearly less potential.
9. Cyprus (pre-rehearsals 6th)
Cyprus should be on safer ground than this but I’m unimpressed with both their staging and Andromache’s performance. The vocal has been questioned but in particular her charisma has also gone missing in the middle of that giant shell. No Greece hurts but this should play well in the Balkans and Israel, add in a bit of diaspora, maybe some Swedish jury support for their songwriters, a bit of summer vibes solidarity from Malta and Spain and there might be enough low but consistent points to get through. This feels the opposite to San Marino in terms of being odds on but generally maligned amongst bettors. I’ll be a bit of a hold out and call it in still although any position on it has been exited no harm done.
8. Azerbaijan (pre-rehearsals 10th)
Going back to Belgium, this is exactly what should be prioritised for any jury push- an average song that they’re getting the best from with a great vocal and a proper concept (even if they have thematically done this better before). Should be a jury top 10 regardless but like Malta may over reach a bit and they have a talent of just doing enough and always being in range on the televote despite an unpromising draw. More comfortable than the previous two but a lot less than everything to follow.
7. Estonia (pre-rehearsals 7th)
There’s not much to say on this. Stefan is a jack of all trades here and this should be safe. A solid low top 10 with both sides seems likely. Moving on.
6. Finland (pre-rehearsals 2nd)
2nd seems optimistic looking back but we were promised a big show and I wouldn’t class a bunch of balloons as such. Vocal was ok at best last night but they should get away with it. Has drifted understandably since rehearsals although this should still be heading to the final.
5. Czech Republic (pre-rehearsals 8th)
Good strides have been took by Domi in addressing the vocals and bringing a big arena staging with coherent concept. Has looked a good prospect to qualify from day 1 but with the improvements made this is on the sure list. Outside shot for a top 3.
4. Australia (pre-rehearsals 3rd)
Australia qualified last night in all likelihood and tonight is all about seeing what can be added to that. Obvious question marks around the televote that there’s no point dragging up again which may tip him out the top 3.
3. Serbia (pre-rehearsals 5th)
The draw is Serbia’s biggest drawback with a lot coming after this- a lot for juries to prefer more and a lot more wackiness for the televote. Serbia is a different beast in voting power compared to other strong diaspora countries commanding the regional vote much stronger and Konstrakta has a sizeable hit here making this a different proposition to other ‘odd’ entries. Will be getting around 40 points from North Macedonia and Montenegro alone and build out from there so qualification is not in doubt. The neutral vote is a bit unknown but like Achille it’s distinctiveness helps and the signs in this regard are far better than for him regardless of diaspora. For the neutral jury- it will be a mess to some, a piece of art to others and a relevant commentary to others so evened out it should be doing ok. Feels the most likely for 3rd at this point.
2. Poland (pre-rehearsals 4th)
More a case of me re-assessing Australia and Finland down than moving Ochman up within the semi or final even. The staging is debateable but hasn’t changed prospects up or down much. Great voice for the juries, alright song, a good draw and strong televote base the clear reasons this does well and it’s not something to spend time debating on here.
1. Sweden (pre-rehearsals 1st)
In the context of the final, Sweden is very much a 4th favourite, arguably 5th with an outside chance but here I don’t think its getting beat. Australia could take the jury from them, Poland or Serbia could both jump it in the televote but combined this would still be top. It’s a good set of opposition to be up against and of course has the best draw and a built in jury boost. Locking up enough money to make taking it worthwhile doesn’t appeal however.
My Position
Sticking with my strategy of recent years I don’t have a huge amount of interest in trying to nail the borderliners correctly. Two I had pre rehearsals are an example of this- what looks a safe Czech Rep is kept and some Cyprus exposure binned off where possible. Belgium is a bit of an exception to that given its generous price and something I have to take on. Main interest is a Montenegro NQ with positions also against Israel and still Georgia but it would be nice were there to be no shocks from Romania down.
Best of luck to all, and for the running order later!
Combined Placing (Jury Ranking/ TV Ranking) Points Estimate (Jury/T.V)
Sweden (1st/1st) 330 (170/160)
Poland (3rd/2nd) 260 (110/150)
Serbia (5th/3rd) 250 (115/135)
Australia (2nd/9th) 210 (150/70)
Czech Rep (4th/4th) 200 (100/120)
Finland (9th/5th) 180 (75/115)
Estonia (7th/6th) 155 (80/75)
Azerbaijan (6th/10th) 140 (80/60)
Cyprus (10th/11th) 110 (60/50)
Malta (8th/12th) 110 (80/30)
San Marino (16th/7th) 95 (20/75)
Belgium (11th/15th) 90 (60/30)
Romania (15th/8th) 90 (20/70)
Israel (12th/14th) 70 (40/30)
Ireland (13th/13th) 60 (30/30)
Georgia (17th/16th) 35 (20/15)
Montenegro (14th/17th) 30 (20/10)
North Macedonia(18th/18th) 25 (20/5)