Eurovision 2022: Grand Final Preview
Whatever happens tonight, a lot of people are going to be left looking very stupid. Will it be the vast majority of us bettors who have put forward points time and time again over why it won't be so easy and most of the fans who have continued to believe their favourites have a chance. Or will it be pretty much everyone outside the bubble from punters to journalists and everyone in between who think this has been a done deal for months?
Do we really have an Ocam's Razor situation of the simplest outcome - Ukraine wins cos of the war - being the correct one. Maybe. We'll come back around to this at the end of the run through because there's 24 other entries still in this contest that at least deserve some mention, and from a betting view provide more typical positions to take.
One theory on the year that's forming a part of my assumptions is that we're going to see a hell of a lot of countries pick up very few points/their base vote. The televote has become more and more lopsided in recent years and I expect a top 8 or so to score very strongly almost by default which could have a big impact in reducing a certain big televote projection. Anyway, let's run through…
25. Germany
Germany isn't bad but its too easy to place last and the justified favourite in the market. The televote is going to be painful you feel, especially following Ukraine and at the start of one of the worst stretches for the televote in recent memory. The juries have already shown love to get the next batch of contenders for last into the final and that's not the case here and the pre contest polling we have to go off isn't a great indicator either.
24. Belgium
Pushed through the semi by the juries in all likelihood, when it probably shouldn't have given the weak performance and non descript staging. Should be seeing that support drop off now and will do well to get double figures on the televote.
23. Switzerland
Copy and paste the above. Marius has the earlier draw but there's a little more to 'Boys Do Cry' as a song and may just fetch a higher jury score than 'Miss You'. With the televote being low across both, that could be the difference.
22. Iceland
Still nice, still dull. I can see how it would come last and the televote will be low, perhaps some Nordic points can save it from the very bottom. Stands out ever so slightly more from a jury side than some of the others given the harmonies so I'll put it here.
21. Romania
What's Romania's base diaspora? Because that's the score this gets + some from Moldova. If the juries find new homes for their votes than Belgium and Switzerland, it beats them. If the jurors are stubborn, it doesn't. Somewhere around the bottom 5 surely and a weak spot in the final.
20. Lithuania
That thing about Romania's base vote also applies here, it's very hard to see a neutral voting for this. Thankfully, there are enough non-neutrals to save it, I think. No disrespect to Monika, but this song is outclassed in the final.
19. Azerbaijan
Getting bored yet for me saying base vote? Because this is another that looks that way. The male vocal battle is strong and Azerbaijan probably come with the worst song and worst draw. There's enough here to appreciate however so it should be clear of the fight for last.
18. Portugal
That draw is a huge blow and whilst stats were somewhat promising I'm not sure any neutral or new voter will remember this unfortunately and even the juries could struggle. I don't think it did bad in the semi, its just a victim of the need for spacing in that packed half. Deserves more but difficult
17. Armenia
I fancy Rosa Lin to help Armenia pip their rivals Azerbaijan but the gap is feeling tighter. Marginally more diaspora power and a more appealing televote song even if it's lost in the running order.
16. Czech Republic
Put it last again and you have a potential top 10, from 1st it's much much harder. Not to be wrote off with this having a bit of a niche and should do respectably on both sides. Lack of any voting power comparatively also holds them back.
15. Finland
Another one that should have no trouble reaching mid table is Finland. Rock tends to overperform and Finalnd's usp and Rasmus tag might count for a little. Steady points here and there and a fairly even and consistent spread.
14. Estonia
Aided somewhat by going last as his stats are pretty disappointing. It's understandable why others have had him higher during the season and I've toyed with that too. Ultimately, it's just a very middle of the road, solid entry and I don't think that's enough this year for more than mid table. It's the prime song for juries to fill their top 10 with but I don't see it inspiring too many televotes although I could be wrong.
13. France
Was hopeful for more from France but the draw has not been kind, nor has the emergence of Moldova on top of the Ukraine problem. All three are different styles but this has lost its edge and niche. Jury signs suggest it shouldn't be at the bottom with them and the televote should still be alright. That seems enough for a spot around here.
12. Australia
Going to have to go with the big split scenario with a strong jury and poor televote. Not much else to say but I think he'll do OK overall. I expect a poor TV score for many countries so pulling away from them on the jury side isn't a bad path for Sheldon.
11. The Netherlands
Hmm. The Netherlands is a real head scratcher . As we've seen from the fan love and it's pre contest streaming, there was room for this to connect but I still don't know if that translates into a big score, especially where it has been sandwiched now. Is it one of those whose streams exceed it’s votes or does S10s emotion win over enough viewers. Will jurors appreciate the simplicity and sincerity or has this took a step back even from mediocre pre rehearsal indicators? There’s a lot to ponder and then you question whether it stands out oris overshadowed in the draw- filler or strong? Anyway, from here the songs that get a big score either (or both) sides begin to pull away and I'm not seeing much top end from The Netherlands. I have this just missing the top 10 with more uncertainties around it compared to others.
10. Greece
This would be a good result for Greece despite certain fan sites blowing expectations sky high. I've focused a lot on the negatives with this so will just brush over them quickly in that it doesn't do enough to generate votes. I have Greece pretty much at their base level and the issue is this isn't strong enough regionally. There will be votes for Ms.Georgiadi but Spain, Serbia, Moldova, Italy and realistically Ukraine at a minimum will all be stronger in the Balkans whilst the 'Tenfjord' side won't replace that with enough scandi votes. In addition we already have pretty good evidence Subwoolfer at minimum carry more televote appeal than this. Being the most interesting in a poor section is 50/50 but for me it isn't helping either. Will do well in the jury vote however, Amanda delivers this technically very well and there's no knocking it there.
9. Norway
Don't have too much to say on this with most in agreement it's a low top 10 range. Have the jury and tv quite close together overall and it looks solid. In another timeline this could be in Moldova's running order slot and expect much more but the impact is diluted. Great job keeping the gimmick up for all these months though and the Norwegian delegation are doing good work.
8. Moldova
Moldova just know how to do this. No train? No problem apparently with everyone lapping this up. The thoughts Cyprus could do well in early, predictions can be attributed here better. A completely ordinary song in its genre but one the region will love and that neutrals will see as a massive breath of fresh air. It of course helps the band have heaps of charisma and are pros at this. In my mind there are not 2 halves to the draw but 1 half and another 2 quarters. 13-18 is is a dead zone and then Moldova comes in and restarts the show. That position suggests it did indeed get a great televote in semi one and there's no reason that will change here, if anything it should increase. Easy to get carried away but I have this 2-5th on the tv now whilst the jury will be mid table. Take your top 10 Moldova and I look forward to seeing Zdob back in 2033 for more fun.
7. Poland
I don't rate 'River' as a song and the staging has been overdone in my opinion. Ochman's charisma has been questioned but him and his voice is still the strongest part of the package and he's a bit wasted if anything with this. I don't see him doing amazing with the juries here for the above reasons with there being enough good vocals to throw points at. The diaspora will eat this up and this has appeal in non Western countries too making Ochman a high scorer across the board.
6. Serbia
Serbia is always strong in the stats and was going to be this year sending such a regionally resonant song but dear me it's looking powerful. Neighbours and diaspora will be flocking to this as will the regional juries who lack any of their own interests in the final. Divisive and wtf? for sure but that's no bad thing for the televote. The late draw does no harm either and if there are Russian voters (of the more pro-Putin variety) looking for something Konstrakta probably has the best case if Moldova's messaging is clear. That's a very small consideration but aids the impression this can add to it's base score for a strong finish.
5. Spain
I've gave Spain about a 4% chance of winning for much of the season and that's about where this looks to be going off from. The drift higher with the Greece enthusiasm allowed me to get as high as the other contenders with a lot of ease. Now this is a very slick package and there are jurors that will go heavily for this but on the whole, they'll find a few to put ahead of it because they generally always do. Will obviously score better as a % with the televote than at Benidorm Fest but there is still a warning there. Not as in it being bad or anything like that, but as in people being more motivated to vote for something more resonant, 'meaningful' and of personal relevance. Maybe that is Ukraine, but it's also a regional thing too. The Nordics will connect more to Sweden, the Balkans to Serbia and Moldova and the diasporas to their own entries The path to victory in all likelihood therefore has to be something like a 4/2 split at best if you believe Ukraine are unstoppable on the televote and that makes it awkward. I have this a real 50/50 between 4th and 5th right now.
4. Italy
I've theorised Ukraine might miss out through attrition seeing the pool of sympathy voters switch to favourites but it's an equally fair way of describing how Italy has fallen so far from most peoples top tip. Perhaps its worth it's own post after the event but my take is it's a bit of everything rather than one major error- death from a thousand cuts and what not. Having Spain perform immediately after them and Ukraine later too is the final straw and a partially self inflicted nail in the coffin and white flag raised. I think it was in the first preview of the year I said Italy were a worthy strong favourite but one vulnerable to a usurp and that's sadly how its turned out.
Italy have looked messy before in rehearsals but do more than alright regardless with the televote and those fundamentals are still strong. Should be around the top 5 with both constituencies still so are obviously doing well still. Neck and neck currently in the odds with Spain and that seems right. Fighting for the last place in the top 4 more than the win.
3. Sweden
Sweden overtaking Italy in my predictions is not something I anticipated. 'Hold Me Closer' is strong but a big part of that shift is more to do with circumstance. A great spot in a weak semi has allowed them to build some momentum and of course the second half draw was important for this. I'm not particularly expecting a greatly higher points total for this than at any other time and it more pushes ahead with Italy dropping off. Sweden are getting the maximum potential out of this in a way other's aren't. Anyway, I have this as the jury runner up but feel once we get away from Northern and Western Europe (whose top votes will likely be decided by diasporas) that this will struggle to score as well as some others. I'm open to being wrong but in general, Sweden is one of the countries that I have more confidence in estimating always at Eurovision and that's what gives another challenger to Ukraine the edge.
2. Ukraine
This is a predictions article primarily, but if the juries have this higher than 5th at the absolute most- factoring in sympathy-then what is the point of them? No one is arguing that the best song must win, but this falls short on the performance side too. Remove the context and its 7th-15th overall. '1944' worked despite comparatively little context (Crimea situation is obviously nothing compared to a full blown invasion in European minds) and it's not beyond question this now comes up short despite the context. The majority of the public and fans feel deep annoyance that Ukraine 'are going to win it whatever' but of course there's no negative public vote. As a number, I imagine the sympathy vote to be relatively low, but as a % it is problematic for layers. If just 1-5% of viewers who wouldn't normally vote decide to do so for Ukraine that could lead to a big score. It's hard to come up with solid figures and estimates which of course leads to a worst case scenario (or best, for backers) being projected.
We have to work of a main range of 300-350 I feel, more is possible, as is fewer but that feels a reasonable ball park to start from.
So then it's all on last night. 150 jury points feels the minimum requirement otherwise something will inevitably pip it and I do still think something will. Surely if all the contenders are 100+ jury points ahead which the should be, one of them is able to hold onto that lead. Maybe not the one I've gone for but one of them, maybe more.
1. United Kingdom
At the end of the day, I have put the UK in first place because this looks and sounds like the winner. Its that simple. My earlier thoughts are on here to see this obviously hasn't always been the case but I think everyone has been won over the more we've seen of Sam. It's shortened in the market after every performance and development and rightly so and credit to TAP and the BBC, every decision has been right, whatever the outcome. If the juries are acting to form this should be winning with them with a strong total and then it's just down to the televote. The question is can Sam find the 200 or so points I estimate he needs (lest the jury seriously overrate Ukraine) to cling on for victory, and I think he can.
I'm not putting him in with Salvador, or more particularly Conchita level support but then you can't really until it happens. Both probably exceeded televote expectations to the point of making any doubts look silly but that's what can happen with the televote and the way it skews to the top. It's right to question the appeal, it's wrong to assume this will be another Cesar Sampson nor John Lundvik/Tamara Todevska situation with him completely hopeless on the public vote. Yes, the UK starts at 0 effectively but the comical levels of ineptitude in previous years may actually help. There's no need to go into whether the UK is liked or not because that's kind of irrelevant through a Eurovision lense. Sam's TikTok profile impact is hard to estimate but can only be a help and similar to Ukraine we're talking small numbers could make a big difference when converted to %s. Ultimately, I'd give him a very wide range of 140-270 ish with the public, the mid point of which should get him over the line. I brought up Salvador and Conchita earlier because this feels like the winner in the same way, not in terms of quality or anything tangible but in terms of the momentum and narrative. This is obviously subjective and we've also seen that not materialise (Cyprus 2018) but it would be a fitting piece of irony leaving British viewers stunned if a certainty to win based on politics was edged out by a certainty to be bottom 5 because everyone hates them. That is the way the Ebu surely want this to go and despite Ukraine getting a fair swing, this is the chosen one.
A reminder too that whilst no favourite as strong as Ukraine has ever been seen, The UK (and Sweden) wouldn't be particularly big outsiders to win but the more likely jury winner has to have the edge.
Combined Placing (Jury Ranking/ TV Ranking) Points Estimate (Jury/T.V)
United Kingdom (1st/5th) 505 (310/195)
Ukraine (5th/1st) 465 (160/305)
Sweden (2nd/8th) 450 (275/175)
Italy (3rd/4th) 440 (220/220)
Spain (4th/3rd) 430 (200/230)
Serbia (7th/6th) 300 (110/190)
Moldova (13th/2nd) 290 (60/230)
Poland (8th/7th) 275 (90/185)
Norway (9th/9th) 175 (85/90)
Greece (6th/15th) 160 (115/45)
Netherlands (12th/10th) 140 (80/60)
Australia (10th/21st) 115 (100/15)
France (18th/12th) 95 (45/50)
Estonia (11th/18th) 90 (70/20)
Finland (20th/13th) 90 (40/50)
Czech Rep (15th/16th) 80 (50/30)
Armenia (17th/17th) 80 (45/35)
Portugal (16th/19th) 75 (50/25)
Azerbaijan (19th/20th) 70 (50/20)
Lithuania (23rd/14th) 70 (25/45)
Romania (25th/11th) 65 (10/55)
Iceland (21st/22nd) 60 (40/20)
Switzerland (14th/25th) 55 (55/0)
Belgium (22nd/23rd) 45 (35/10)
Germany (24th/24th) 20 (15/5)
My Position
Like most I feel, a Ukraine win would not be a god night. Depending on side bets and other positions its about break even which obviously is not the goal. Everything else is around or above the target return, skewed a little to the UK which would be a good win.
Those main other positions include Serbia top Balkan, and top 10 and 4 action across that top 7 in my rankings. UK winning the jury vote would also be nice and of course there's many h2h positions with small stakes and the odd thing here and there that's good value- too much to list and not of enough interest or significance.
Best of luck to all and I'm sure many of us are in a similar situation. I'll be back at some point in the next weeks for a few post contest pieces, probably depending on how buoyant or deflated I feel with this outcome.
Enjoy the show!