Eurovision 2022: Semi Final One Preview
Here we are in Eurovision week proper now. The standard and how hard a contest is to call are debateable always, but no-one can disagree with the statement that this is a weird edition and after a cancelled year and a limited lockdown year that’s not something I thought I’d be saying. Not only do we have one of the biggest favourites ever that few amongst the betting community agree on, we have the hosts attempting the double, the much maligned UK playing every card perfectly and Spain back in business with the big 5 shining bright again. Sweden remain in default winner position of 4th favourite heading into the lives so at least there’s some predictable normality in the world. Anyway, enough on the year overall as I need to save some kind of intro for the Grand Final preview.
Onto our first semi final and I’ll again go through these in order from last to first according to my predictions.
17. Slovenia (Pre-rehearsals: 17th)
Sorry LPS but nothing has changed for your fortunes whilst the surrounding entries have managed to pick themselves up a little. There’s a few things that make this incredibly jarring to listen to and this is just outclassed. The odd point here and there but this is my pick for last.
16. Denmark (Pre-rehearsals: 16th)
Reddi are likeable enough and have put in enough work to look respectable. It’s hard to see this coming close to qualifying still but I’ve revised some points up for them and there’s a couple of friendly countries.
15. Bulgaria (Pre-rehearsals: 15th)
I was close to dropping this down following a slightly off vocal last night but this is a more than solid rock-101 staging and isn’t as bad as the fandom suggest- there is a niche for this and I see a couple countries whose juries may overate this shall we say.
14. Croatia (Pre-rehearsals: 13th)
The same concerns as before rehearsals exist with the draw, field and general merits of this but their staging has also took a turn for the worse rather than improve and their jury indicators are poorer than anticipated. Mia remains the best part of a very uneven package. The last of my ‘certain’ goners for the semi.
This next section of 4 from 13-10 is the hard bit…
13. Austria (Pre-rehearsals: 14th)
Was Austria better last night? Yes. Was it enough? I don't think so. This is still a bit messy and not typically supported enough by the juries. Presented how it is, I'm not even sure this makes a great impression to the public and we may not be 100% out of the woods from a dodgy vocal tonight-although not as damaging for it's chances it would still hurt. I think it's better to ignore the roller-coaster of this recovering from a horrible rehearsals possibly clouding the judgment of the final version. Has to miss out on my list but I can easily be wrong on this and the next couple.
12. Switzerland (Pre-rehearsals: 10th)
Marius always needed the jury to push him through and based of what we've seen and the jury rehearsal I dowthink this got enough last night. Everything points towards this receiving a terrible public vote tonight so I'm going to shuffle him on to the out pile.
11. Iceland (Pre-rehearsals: 12th)
This has the trimmings of jury catnip but I don’t know how far in in it is in their list. Eurovision juries are clearly more appreciative of this style of music and the live environment helps them immensely although coming into this the metrics all round were a little poor. Everything considered, this feels like an 8th-10th with them meaning it needs to do some ok business tonight. It’s capable of that but this could easily slip under the radar like it has for much of the season.
10. Lithuania (Pre-rehearsals: 11th)
What on earth is this and where did it come from? I'm a little surprised too and have always had this just on the outside. Given the consensus is it's lost on the stage going that early it feels an odd one to shuffle up. I've basically gone for what is the steadiest out of the four main borderlines as I feel 90 pts is enough for the last spot. Lithuania's diaspora, and a little neighbourly appreciation may just give this enough to get through should the previous 3 underperform.
9. Albania (Pre-rehearsals: 5th)
I can’t say I’m massively surprised but there is a lot of unfulfilled potential here. A throwback to the mid 2000s ethno-pop and perhaps a top 10 could have been possible if everything went well. Instead it’s all gone a bit wonky- messy underwhelming staging, questionable camera work and outfits and a few sketchy vocals. It’s a shame and this worked much better at Festival I Kenges and has gone backwards. Reliable points from the Italian, Greek and Swiss televotes in particular are essential at getting this through and it just about makes my list still.
8. Latvia (Pre-rehearsals: 9th)
Things have gone quite well for Citi Zeni and I’m glad I had this on my list when I did despite some doubts. Where others have regressed (some through their own mistakes, some through the whole sun situation) this has maintained itself well and done perfectly fine for a song of its type in the likes of Eurojury. Despite being silly, it’s a professional performance. 2nd remains a hurdle but look at what it’s surrounded by and it ain’t so bad although Moldova and Norway step on it’s toes somewhat. Overall, this feels like it’s done enough last night and a 8th/9th would suffice on the televote tonight which is achievable.
7. Moldova (pre-rehearsals: 7th)
Despite no train (serious let down by the way) it feels like this works live with the audience well enough and is performed with enough charisma and competence to make it through. This is Zdob’s weakest effort but their record is solid enough that I’ll trust their appeal even with a fairly standard performance.
6. Portugal (pre-rehearsals: 6th)
A popular dark horse pick and something I’ve seen glimpses of potential in myself. I think a bit more could have been done with the staging on this but beyond it being a pleasant breathe of fresh air there’s really not enough indicators out there that it will do all to well. Sadly, if it was going to make a move it should have started long before now. I’ve had it cautiously in the middle of extremes all season and now in the middle of my qualifiers.
5. Armenia (pre-rehearsals: 8th)
Yeah, this just does enough everywhere to the extent that it will do well here. Good draw, good enough staging, good enough performance, solid jury indicators, a bit of in built scoring power- there’s no real area to fault it in a qualification context. Making the final looks sure and having been out of it for so long and hosting the junior on their mind that’s plenty good enough for Armenia. Solid job.
4. Netherlands (Pre-rehearsals: 2nd)
I can’t help being disappointed with this staging. If you’re going to rely on lighting alone the camera work and connection needs to be spot on and it simply isn’t here. It’s easy to keep going back to the laser show used on Dutch tv but that generated the kind of progression and intimacy needed whilst also working to make this a bit more interesting in general. That chorus is powerful and the melody strong but it’s hampered here and S10 looks lost on a massive stage. Stands out a mile as a piece of quality in the running order but I’m having televote concerns and see a struggle in the final. Don’t come at me Dutchies, I like this one and it’s a shame to say I’ve lost faith in it doing much on the scoreboard.
3. Greece (Pre-rehearsals: 4th)
Greece may well have and all things considered should have replaced The Netherlands as the jury’s choice in the semi final from what are slim pickings. Add in more reliable support and a later draw and a top 3 looks the minimum here. I don’t particularly see a staging that is above expectations or one that transforms this into a televote magnet. Amanda delivers a strong vocal but I have the odd reservation on her votability in the context of the song and presentation. I remain a bit sceptical with Greece’s top 10 ambitions once in the wider field but here there’s no doubt it’s doing well.
2. Norway (Pre-rehearsals: 3rd)
This does work well in the context of the semi. There are plenty of jurors who aren’t prone to the female ballads which are the main source of ‘quality’ in the semi and for them is the sweet spot of a concept executed well, following in the footsteps of Dadi Freyr with more easy Nordic fun. I’m not expecting a monster televote but it feels the most likely to push Ukraine with that metric so a 2/3-2 split is what I’m going for here which just pushes them ahead of Greece on my count- even if their jury and televote is likely going strong for Ms.Tenfjord.
1. Ukraine (Pre rehearsals: 1st)
Plenty has been said already on Ukraine and it’s best to save whatever else there is, mainly surrounding the performance not quite delivering the impact, for the final preview. On paper 1.44 to beat Greece and Norway et al in this semi is looks a safe investment compared to taking them to win the whole thing against those + the more challenging Italy, The UK, Sweden and Spain. Of course, there are different dynamics in the semi final in terms of the voter base and Ukraine’s support is based on one loose assumption anyway so in a way it does make sense for there to be relatively little gap between their semi and final odds compared to Sweden’s monster gap. I do edge this to Ukraine given it could easily have been 3rd or 4th on the televote on merit so it’s not as much of a stretch here to suggest they now win it and it’s a friendly field with Lithuania, Latvia and Moldova liable to offer neighbourly support regardless coupled with some Western sympathy and a mobilised diaspora. Jury indicators suggest this will be in the top 4 here so mathematically it adds up enough. It’s not something I’m interested in (and if you are seek out the double with what looks an insurmountable Sweden in semi 2).
Combined Placing (Jury Ranking/ TV Ranking) Points Estimate (Jury/T.V)
Ukraine (4th/1st) 310 (130/180)
Norway (2nd/2nd) 290 (135/155)
Greece (1st/3rd) 275 (165/110)
Netherlands (3rd/6th) 210 (130/80)
Armenia (5th/5th) 180 (95/85)
Portugal (6th/8th) 160 (85/75)
Moldova (9th/4th) 145 (45/90)
Latvia (8th/9th) 120 (45/70)
Albania (14th/7th) 115 (35/80)
Lithuania (11th/10th) 90 (40/50)
Iceland (10th/12th) 80 (45/30)
Switzerland (7th/16th) 75 (65/15)
Austria (13th/11th) 70 (35/35)
Croatia (12th/13th) 65 (35/30)
Bulgaria (16th/14th) 40 (20/20)
Denmark (15th/16th) 40 (25/15)
Slovenia (17th/17th) 15 (10/5)
My Position
A Croatian non-qualification and Latvia to make it through are my main interests in here whilst a top 3 for Subwoolfer would be nice to see on Saturday night/sunday morning. It is also closer than 20-1+ to the top by my reckoning. There’s a couple of minor interests and I’d like most of the ‘sure’ to qualify but I’m not overly concerned and will have more nerves during the half draw to follow this and in semi 2 where my plays are much bigger.
Best of luck to all and particularly anyone braver than me in going for more borderliners