Eurovision 2022: A final Pre-Rehearsals Update
The UK feels the place to start given it looks inevitable to exceed expectations both at the time of its release and in my first preview. There are real shades of France last year in my apparent initial misjudgement of this and following push up my predictions. Thankfully unlike Barbara Pravi whom I was forced to cover last minute I have kept well onside of this- know when you don't know and all that + a strong Eurojury (I had 3rd) seemed likely. The Eurojury win means anything out of single figures is probably still generous and something only the case because of the dynamics of the year. Personally this still lacks a moment or something to elevate it to special although the fairly hyped staging could address that. The lack of a full semi final appearance is in the back of my mind too as a negative giving this seems a bit of a grower. Perhaps I've overly adjusted my thoughts on ‘Space Man’ but with a potentially “unsavoury” favourite and the general metrics, I'm very cautious of one of those Dami Im-like crazy jury scores.
My thoughts on the rest of the favourites remain fairly similar. Italy is still in the best position with more certainty around it than the UK. Fan polling has been a little stronger, the 3 minute edit a little disappointing and you can't complain with a solid 2nd place in Eurojury even if the win was ideal so overall, It's par the course pretty much from a month back. What gives Italy the edge for me still is the more possible paths to victory. It could be a 1-1 split, a 2-2, a 1-3, or a 3-1 for example as it feels the more evenly balanced out of the top 4.
Ukraine looks like its locked on for circa 150 with the juries which makes it unstoppable when it picks up 400+ from the televote right? Not really. We really need to question why this is doing so bad on any fan metric. I appreciate the sample cares a lot more about the contest etc and can have unrepresentative views but the whole point of the sympathy idea is Ukraine should be picking up points regardless, not sat outside the top 10 in the OGAE poll behind Austria and with 6.5x less than Sweden and Italy. I’d expect this to do worse in fan polls than reality, but so much worse adds some doubts. Why are there also more casuals who think they're printing money compared to saying 'I'm voting for that'? I'm not dismissing the big sympathy vote (300-350, not the absurd record breaking scores) these things are by their nature unpredictable and unprecedented, but we need to recognise 200 or so is also a possible outcome which leaves them pretty much out of it. Even the midpoint between those leaves them with too much to do most of the time. A contender, not the contender which has been my consistent take. At coin toss odds I take the field no question.
Sweden deserves its mini drift from 6.4s-8.4s despite recovering for a solid 3rd in Eurojury and victory within many of the fan polls. There's still something with 'Hold Me Closer' that I doubt the mass Europe wide televote appeal. 200 points is the sort of region I'm looking at in a fairly best case outcome and there aren't enough signs this wins the jury to compensate. Ideally this would have a hefty lead over Italy heading into the televote reveal before even going back down the Ukraine rabbit hole or throwing the UK into the mix. Cornelia does have an excellent run into the final however having every opportunity to boss semi 2 which could take her a fair distance.
Spain has established itself as the closest outsider and whilst there's a bit more unpredictability here, there's the same basic conundrum as with Sweden in having few ways to reach the top. I'm sure juries will find at least 3/4 entries to place above Chanel and then she's hoping for the big televote in a Ukraine-esque way. I'm expecting mainly a 4-6 type result but it's not a bad shout at 20+ given the lack of (mainstream) up tempo entries.
My thoughts elsewhere are much the same and fairly in line with general opinions so not worth going over in too much detail. Suffice to say nothing has particularly staked a claim to be the outsider to get on board with yet. There's no one dark horse, but plenty of pitch black ones. Finland and perhaps Australia are the only real outsiders to step forward in my estimations whilst Armenia's semi final closing position may mean they have the necessary staging on show. For the rest of the pack, the general drift over the last month is justified with a higher staging 'surprise' looking necessary to get into the mix.
Going off my qualifiers, I have this as a rough 1-26 for now:
1. Italy
2. UK
3. Ukraine
4. Sweden
5. Spain
6. Poland
7. France
8. Finland
9. Noway
10. Australia
11. Serbia
12. Netherlands
13. Greece
14. Albania
15. Moldova
16. Armenia
17. Cyprus
18. Portugal
19. Latvia
20. Czech Republic
21. Estonia
22. Azerbaijan
23. Switzerland
24. Belgium
25. Germany
It feels low for the three female ballads of Netherlands, Greece and Portugal in particular and whilst I've not wrote them off for anything, they need some damn impressive first rehearsals. The queue of solo males trying to dodge the wooden spoon also looks statistically unlikely (even more so than the 4/5 pre qualified in the top 10) but that's what I've got for now and I tend not to worry about that kind of stat too much.
My position
As of now, I'm very happy with practically anything bar a Ukraine victory whilst should the apparent toin coss go against me, I'd be around break even give or take. It's got to the kind of price now where evening it all out simply isn't worth it. My positions across other books are healthy, particularly in the qualification markets where I've mainly been taking on some of the weaker entries (Montenegro, Georgia, Croatia, San Marino in particular) with a few exemptions.
I will of course be following the action from tomorrow and can be found on twitter @escbetting where I'll be sharing any burning thoughts.
Happy Rehearsals!