Eurovision 2021- Semi Final Two (pre-rehearsals) Preview
Semi Two feels the harder of the two semifinals to predict right now. I’m especially less sure on who breaks into the top 3 alongside Switzerland. I suppose that's natural given the chasing pack in semi one (Lit, See, Nor) have all been seen live and are fairly predictable compared to here. There’s less to go off here for now and as a result little to separate positions 2-6.
But first let’s cover the basics…
Qualification
Our safe qualifiers here are -in running order- Greece, Moldova, Iceland, Bulgaria, Finland and Switzerland. No complaints right? If any need explaining more it's Moldova in a bop heavy semi but the dream team connections should ensure its safety.
San Marino and Senhit can never be called ‘100%’ pre rehearsals although it would take a complete bottle job for them to fail. It's also looking more likely our man will turn up so I'll be generous to them for now.
Estonia was an obvious pick for the death spot but they're one I still think should be through, although potentially following Flo Rida is less than ideal. Baltic support and Finland + dream team allies Greece and Moldova should be able to boost a middling score and let's face it Uku is a good looking chap and should get some housewife votes. From a jury perspective, it’s middle of the road enough considering the ranking formula meaning they shouldn’t be getting any really low votes either. They're not safe by any stretch but might have a strong enough case to get through and are one I've had in my ten for a while.
After Estonia- who are the only one of the borderlines I’m in any way confident on- it gets tricky:
Serbia are never far off the pace but are a mixed bag. It's the worst of the bangers for me but has the later draw, they're well known regionally but Serbia have had friendlier semis. There's potential for this to be very messy and 'Loco Loco’ is unlikely to get enough jury love regardless. The televote will doubtless have Hurricane in the top 10 but how far in is questionable given the competition within the genre.
Portugal has its charms but a poor draw. Will need jury love to be on it's side and they might be the jury save of the semi- I don't see much public support for The Black Mamba who come of as too much of a pastiche in my opinion.
Denmark's pimp slot is obviously a boost to their hopes but should Gjon be on form then Switzerland may be the true closer of the semi- this feels a little tacked on rather than the crescendo of the evening. There's a lot of televote competition, particularly from Iceland who do the 80s disco schtick but with more obvious novelty value. Needles to say jurors really should not be putting it through either.
Austria on the other hand have become something of a jury favourite -with their male entries at least- and 'Amen' is in a similar mould. The televote and Vincent's stage presence are questionable but staging is not a concern. There's potential for another big split here and it's not one I'm looking to get involved with either way.
Albania still feels a bit too anonymous despite the revamp and I’m undecided if it is helped by being placed in between two sleeping pills or if it blends in. It's neither esoteric enough like a 'Ktheju Tokes' to get much attention or 'western' sounding enough for jurors. Standard FiK describes it well enough. There are a few diaspora and neighbouring countries but I see little from elsewhere and I'm less hopeful than some. Odds-on is too short.
The Czech Republic are somewhat lacking a hook making that third slot really bad news for them, particularly as I have songs 1,2 and 4 all down as qualifiers. Benny can bring the charisma required to sell it but the Czech's aren't the most reliable at staging. The price seems about fair here.
After those we are in the long shot territory and three countries that don’t have much hope.
Poland are in trouble and too forgettable for my liking. ‘The Ride’ is incredibly anonymous in the running order and goes nowhere presenting neither jurors or televoters much to grab hold of. The diaspora vote for Poland is relatively picky, poor Rafal doesn’t seem too popular and even then their voting power is somewhat overstated. It's hard to build much of a case here.
Latvia have even fewer credentials and any impact Samanta's effort may have had is lost following Finland before the class of Switzerland. Playing up to hardcore fan tastes only gets you so far and this is quite off-putting. There may be a bit of jury support for strong vocals and some may appreciate the experimentation but this shouldn’t be making the top 10 on either count.
And then we come to Tornike and Georgia who fall into the d.o.a category. Their draw is awful, their song has nothing to it and this semi following the loss of Armenia makes them one of the most isolated countries in any semi final in recent memory. Everything has gone wrong here and they will be very fortunate to avoid last.
The Top 3
Returning to the top of the semi, my concerns over Bulgaria are growing. Georgia, Albania, Portugal is a terrible lead in to a ballad demanding a time investment. This could get seriously overlooked by the televote in that part of the draw and then Finland comes and blasts it away. Neither semi presents an easy running order for producers but beyond swapping Albania and Georgia, you couldn't give Victoria a worse spot.
Finland would have been a good closer but their draw is still pretty great as hinted at above. My doubts over their potential in the final are well documented but the semi may be another matter.
Iceland and potentially San Marino should join them in gathering some public support but remain questionable on the jury side.
Greece are an odd one. Whilst 4th has been getting some producer love in recent years, it seems an odd position to put something 'never seen before'. The staging rumours are still going strong but the key phrase is "if it comes off". They are one to keep an eye on.
The door is of course wide open for Switzerland to win the semi and it makes sense for them to be a big favourite here. I will temper that in saying I have more concerns around Gjon's staging than Destiny's and that there are more countries in the discussion here than in semi one, it’s just not clear which yet.
Combined Placing (Jury Ranking/ TV Ranking) Points Estimate
1. Switzerland (1st/1st) 300
2. San Marino (4th/ 3rd) 220
3. Finland (7th/ 2nd) 215
4. Bulgaria (2nd/ 6th) 210
5. Greece ( 3rd/ 5th) 210
6. Iceland ( 6th/ 4th) 200
7. Moldova (9th/ 8th) 150
8. Estonia (10th/9th) 125
9. Portugal (5th/13th) 110
10. Austria (6th/15th) 110
11. Serbia (14th/7th) 100
12. Czech Republic (11th/10th) 90
13. Albania (12th/ 11th) 85
14. Denmark (16th/ 12th) 65
15. Poland (13th/ 14th) 40
16. Latvia (15th/ 16th) 30
17. Georgia (17th/ 17th) 10
Again, Switzerland is top by default until staging proves otherwise- it's not something I advise backing close to odds on and their high points tally and lead is very much a best case scenario for them and not a result of my confidence in them just yet.
It's the same for San Marino in second and they are the hardest to evaluate right now. Don’t @ me if they creep through in 8th, they have a wide range and I’ve gone for the top end.
Bulgaria in 4th may raise a few eyebrows too but it's rare something goes down in my estimations as strongly as GUIGO has- mostly countries high in the odds are going to appear stronger over time and I'm concerned we're just going along with it as a favourite given Bulgaria's track record and hopes the staging can hugely elevate something which is so far just 'nice'.
As for who will be called last should I have landed the ten, maybe San Marino if they’re on the weaker end of their range or Moldova given I've gone for 3 of the least fan pleasing qualifiers in 8-10.
As always, feel free to comment below your thoughts on this semi.