Eurovision 2021: A last pre-rehearsal update

With rehearsals due to start tomorrow, there's time for one final update to my predictions and see what's looking stronger or weaker:

Semi 1

1. Malta

2. Lithuania

3. Romania

4. Norway

5. Sweden

6. Cyprus

7. Croatia

8. Ukraine

9. Israel

10. Azerbaijan

11. Russia

12. Belgium

13. North Macedonia

14. Slovenia

15. Ireland

16. Australia

Malta the obvious winner and only Bulgaria 2017 comes close at this stage to an open and shut case in the semis.

I've gone a bit bolder on Romania following some of Sweden's growing issues but in terms of qualifiers have only swapped Israel in for Belgium. It's hard to ignore the contrasting stats for those two and Eden looks more likely to be pushed through by the juries right now. It's not something I'm personally confident or invested in, but should she help another few countries here nq then I'm happy enough.

Azerbaijan are on thin ice but might just have more about them than Russia.

Ireland might actually be one of the more interesting rehearsals tomorrow with less to go off than the others, but it's something I'll believe when I see.

Australia slip to last following some poor jury signs for them and of course the fact they will be using their live on tape.

Semi 2

1. Iceland

2. Switzerland

3. Greece

4. Finland

5. Bulgaria

6. San Marino

7. Estonia

8. Moldova

9. Austria

10. Portugal

11. Albania

12. Serbia

13. Czech Republic

14. Denmark

15. Latvia

16. Poland

17. Georgia

Now I don't think badly about Switzerland, and Gjon remains a solid green in the outright, but he has the worrying record of drifting everytime we see him and I share the concerns. I'm also looking for a very specific staging from them which may not happen. I've kind of been looking for something to beat him here for a month or so and Iceland right now presents the biggest threat, assuming Esc juries are also ready to rank him above his station.

San Marino is a big faller here following their abysmal Eurojury scoring. Without meaning to fanwank, it's a curiously low score for something that is excellent at it's job in studio format. Perhaps the microstate branding and somewhat tacky music video is partially to blame. Whatever the reason, the song was not supposed to be a concern, rather the staging, Senhit's suitability for this and the presence or not (99.9% not now) of Flo. NQ a distinct possibility but they make the provisional list still.

Estonia is one I've stuck my neck out on and the appalling Eurojury scoring for San Marino and Czech Republic suggest 2nd may not be such a bad draw for Uku.

After him and Moldova who still make the cut I'm mainly needing 2 from the 3 of Albania, Austria and Portugal. Albania (much like Israel) has done well to even be in the discussion but they're the one I have to leave out, giving me the same 10 as a month back, just in a slightly different order. Like always, Serbia will be there or thereabouts but I can't put them through yet. Last place should still be Georgia with a bit of diaspora and some dodgy San Marinese points saving Poland.

The final

1. Italy

2. Malta

3. Iceland

4. Switzerland

5. Lithuania

6. France

7. Romania

8. Sweden

9. Bulgaria

10. Greece

11. Norway

12. Cyprus

13. Ukraine

14. Finland

15. Moldova

16. Croatia

17. San Marino

18. Israel

19. Estonia

20. Azerbaijan

21. Portugal

22. UK

23. Germany

24. Netherlands

25. Spain

26. Austria

It's a hard year to call but I'm fairly happy with Italy in 1st which is a non mover from a month back in my rankings. The televote may finally be able to push them over the line this time around.

Malta is almost impossible to see out of the top 2 with the juries so they'll be up there. The televote is still untested and I can see a Dami Im scenario happening and another near miss.

It's the next raft of positions that are the hardest and everything in 3rd-7th could be completely different. Iceland feels really weak to call for a podium spot but they're less vulnerable to the running order than the rest and I fear juries are going to be overly generous. The public will likely be more interested than the fandom have been and scandi support might just push them up. They make it a top 3 comprised of ‘nearly men’. Neither Switzerland or France strike me as a winner yet and I question whether either is what the televote wants this year more than most. The draw is a big concern and if they both draw first, you get the impression one will have to be dumped early. Lithuania's diaspora, some friendly neighbours and a catchy song in its own right should see them high up.

Juries will likely be lifting Tusse into the top 10 rather than top 4 and his concerning vocals may not as much of a deterrent to them as the already suspect TV. A respectable final outing for Bjorkman but nothing more.

Bulgaria is now at that apt dark horse price and a low top 10 looks realistic. They could end up a little higher, draw and staging permitting.

Romania and Greece are the picks from those who aren't odds on but staging expectations are high.

The battle to avoid last place is the most interesting it has been for a long time.

The Netherlands have a late draw but are going to be sandwiched between some heavy hitters. The song is pants but juries might appreciate the message and diversity. Germany performed well in Eurojury but I'm doubtful how it holds up in a 1-26 ranking. Spain and the UK are fairly anonymous and not to be trusted with staging but are (dangerous word) "competent" enough and have 1 or 2 friends each to bolster. Given my qualifiers, I've plumped for Austria as it's the type of thing juries push through and then forget in the final.

Feel free to leave any of your predictions in the comments and be sure to follow on twitter as we enter this crucial period.