Eurovision 2021- Semi Final One (pre-rehearsals) Preview
Both semis have a fairly similar pattern to them for me- an obvious favourite with less to go on than the chasing pack, a good 7/8 ‘certain’ qualifiers and just the 1 or 2 no hopers. It’s a scenario that has lead to a lot of short odds contenders (12 countries here are odds on last price matched) and a lot of different opinions on that sort of 9th-13th range in each semi- the kind of year most of us will be able to land 8 or 9 out of 10 qualifiers but few will get the full house. Anyway, here’s my current take on the first heat coming at us on the 18th May.
Qualification
Straight of the bat, there are a few countries safe as houses here, they are: Lithuania, Sweden, Cyprus, Norway, Romania and Malta. I don’t think there’s a need to explain any of these really and I’m sure most of us can agree these are strong enough in a semi where just 6 miss out. Norway and Romania are the longest odds out of the bunch but TIX is potentially the most memorable act in a female heavy semi whilst Romania has a decent draw in between two fairly lightweight ethno infused numbers, has good staging potential and some diaspora support.
I’m willing to throw in Belgium as they should gather votes from the ‘serious’ jurors- those taking the ‘music professionals’ tag to heart. It’s the kind of entry that will be highly ranked by some without being punished by others, which is important given the jury ranking system. They will be the jury save of the semi and a big split difference is possible.
Croatia should do decent business picking up consistent 3s and 4s- perhaps more should their staging impress- coupled with a bit of Former Yugoslav love. It’s not one I have interest in backing at current odds but they should be through.
Ukraine are unlikely to be in the jury’s 10 due to it’s divisiveness and regional sound. If there’s one country to trust on staging however it’s Ukraine and they should be able to bring something impressive enough to see ‘Shum’ through to the final as the televote save.
I’m relatively happy with those 9 at this stage but it’s the last spot which is the hard one.
Russia and Azerbaijan, countries that have failed to qualify just the one time each (interestingly both the same year in 2018) have the best case on paper but have big issues and could be value lays.
Russia are severely short of friends here, particularly on the jury side where ethno-rap is a toxic combo and neighbouring support politically questionable. I also don’t think people appreciate how unpopular this is to the diaspora but then who else is it aimed at? Whilst their closest rivals for qualification (Azerbaijan and Ukraine) have also lost out, the disqualification of Belarus hurts Manizha even harder as does going third in the semi.
Azerbaijan have brought very little of a song, find themselves outclassed in the second half of that semi and could get blown away by Ukraine and Malta. They do however have a good track record at staging and there is room to elevate ‘Mata Hari’.
After them, North Macedonia could spring a surprise but will need another huge jury push. They may make the jury 10 but a lagging televote will be the issue for Vasil.
It’s a similar story for Australia’s ‘Technicolour’ - it lends itself to some interesting staging and it’s important not to underestimate their track record but Australia’s jury support hasn’t yet faced a weak composition and weak vocal combined. There’s a danger following Sweden that Montaigne could look amateur in comparison and the televote is a huge concern with a lot of red flags here. Odds of around 2/1 look about right.
It might take a jury top 4/5 placing for either of these to get through and Australia may have the weakest case.
Israel have been getting some love in recent days following their revamp and some good polling and are currently odds on, having looked dead and buried a month ago. I’m still not buying it, they’re in that sort of good but forgettable bracket and this doesn’t really stand out in the running order. Not a contender for the bottom places, but I don’t know if there’s enough room for this to squeeze into the top 10.
We come then to the two least likely to make it through and for me they are Slovenia and Ireland.
Slovenia is simply outclassed and going 2nd will likely kill it, beyond the Former Yugoslav’s, it’s hard to see where any sizeable or consistent points are coming from.
Ireland have the least going for them and are sadly the pick for last place: ‘Maps’ is slightly lacking in a hook, Lesley not the most engaging performer and I’m sceptical about their ‘never been done before staging’ claims, especially given Ireland’s track record. Anything below 4s is too short.
The Top 3
Going back to the top of the pack, if Malta can not win this semi then they have absolutely no chance at the whole thing. It’s sat up as kindly as possible for them which is of course no accident. They are rightly the clear favourite here and it’s theirs to lose, even if I’m still not 100% sold on the televote. There's definitely room for them to win that too for a more comprehensive semi win but I’m reluctant to predict that before we see anything from Destiny live.
Lithuania and Norway are my picks to complete the top 3. Both have big televote potential and may have a small edge on Malta but will probably be too far back with jurors for anything more. It’s the opposite for Sweden with ‘Voices’ pretty much a nailed on top 2 with jurors but an early draw and this not being their friendliest semi ever will hurt their already questionable tv. They’ll be close but may just be lacking a little here.
Romania are a bit of a dark horse pick and could sneak into the top 3 should staging impress, it’s a tall order for anyone else to come through.
Combined Placing (Jury Ranking/ TV Ranking) Points Estimate
Malta (1st/3rd) 290
Lithuania (4th/1st) 265
Norway (7th/2nd) 215
Sweden (2nd/6th) 200
Romania (5th/4th) 190
Cyprus (6th/5th) 175
Belgium (3th/11th) 150
Croatia (8th/7th) 140
Ukraine (13th/8th) 115
Azerbaijan (12th/10th) 100
Russia (14th/9th) 95
North Macedonia (9th/14th) 60
Israel (10th/12th) 55
Australia (11th/15th) 50
Slovenia (15th/13th) 35
Ireland (16th/16th) 15
It’s with little confidence I throw in Azerbaijan to take that last spot given they may just be a little more predictable in terms of scoring than the other contenders for it.
Also just for fun, if my 10 qualifiers happen to be correct, Croatia is the obvious candidate to be called last.
Whilst Malta looks strong here, it strikes me as a year where a lot is going to change from semis to final, not only due to the pre-qualified France and Italy being in the top 4 of the betting currently, and one where the draw is going to have a huge say.
Feel free to leave your comments and predictions below, they are much appreciated even if I need to do some template fixing or something before I can reply!