Eurovision 2021: Semi Final One Preview
I’m not certain what the consensus is really, but I seem to think the semi (and the year overall) is not quite as strong as others do. I’m not even certain whether it’s so far ahead of semi 2 and its certainly nowhere near previous “semi finals of death” such as 2018’s first and 2019’s 2nd. Also just like in semi 2, no real curve balls have been thrown up in the essence of a “Fuego” or a “Truth” springing up from the middle of the pack and on the whole, I don’t think rehearsals have changed too much. That’s kind of explicable by the the fact we’ve had much more time to get to grips with most of the acts but it’s still an anomaly of sorts that no dark horse has really emerged (yet). A few countries have shortened (Cyprus, Ukraine), a few have moved out (Sweden, Lithuania) and some have been hyped without budging in the outright (Russia) but I don’t think the fundamentals here are so different to what was predicted a month back on the whole.
Anyway, let’s jump in…
Malta should be winning the semi with a lack of any strong jury alternatives and a Pimp slot. I see this miles ahead with juries in fact - particularly getting a double go through and their general popularity, but I’m not sure the televote will be as enthralled even here and those post semi stats will reveal whether they are still in with a shout at the whole thing.
Lithuania get the nod for second where they've been pencilled in for much of the season. This works very well as the opener and should be a televote favourite. The jury vote is more doubtful and should this be low with them it wouldn’t surprise even though I’m personally predicting it to punch above some of it’s poor indicators.
It's a little trickier calling the last top 3 spot. I'm not convinced on Cyprus (certainly not as a 4th favourite in the outright) but there might be enough consensus between jury and TV to squeeze this ahead of Ukraine who go fourth. As always, they've done a great job staging this particularly with that backdrop but 'Shum' is still going to have its issues under the jury ranking system.
We take a little jump down then to the next group of countries who are headed by Russia. Will juries go for an authentic, original song and feminist message or be turned of by Russian ethno-rap? It will be in the televote 10, but the early draw, the presence of Ukraine and not a great amount of friends means I've gone for something middling overall.
Norway have a case as one of the few males here so get the next pick. On a side note, it's amazing how this was trading in the 30s a month back and now sits at 200+ (the correct price). I'm not really sure what backers were hoping for with staging.
Sweden have took one of the biggest backwards steps from a national final I can remember but I’ve never really seriously considered an NQ. They’ve pulled themselves even further back from that danger with an improved jury showing last night
Croatia could have done with a cleaner staging and perhaps a more down to earth styling for me though Albina does a good job here and was on form for the jury show. They're one I've had in all season and I'll keep the faith.
Romania are 9th in my book. It's a friendly enough semi with a few diaspora countries and whilst the staging execution is appalling, there's at least something here to latch onto. Getting the second run through was vital for this and keeps it just in.
Last spot then is hard and I don't really have a curved ball to throw in- it's between Israel, Azerbaijan and Belgium. Eden is styled poorly and having thrown so much at 'Set Me Free' to get it in the discussion, staging has tossed this one right back down. It's worth giving a moments thought to the fact Israel aren't too popular right now either.
Azerbaijan timed their 'affairs' much better from the contest's perspective but are probably the laziest they've ever been here. It's hard to say what 'Mata Hari' does best. There'll be a few "generous" scores of course but I think that angle is overplayed slightly.
Belgium offers something more different in the line-up and must hope that juries are kind. Had this not bombed with Eurojury and the Scandi preview shows, they'd be a comfortable tip. I'm not thrilled with it but they claim the last spot with ESC juries more serious and liable to go for the musicianship.
North Macedonia are the strongest of the rest in my opinion despite their hefty price and slightly more likely to gather the jury votes than Slovenia in my view. The two of them slot into 13th and 14th.
Ireland's staging falls flat on it's face, Leslie's uncomfortable and without any real support to fall back on it's hard to make any case. The jury performance was on a par with their less than stellar efforts throughout the week.
Australia fail to impress and asking Europe (juries included) to vote for Montaigne's pre recorded hyper pop is a tough sell.
Combined Placing (Jury Ranking/ TV Ranking) Points Estimate (Jury/T.V)
Malta (1st/2nd) 330 (185/145)
Lithuania (3rd/1st) 250 (100/150)
Cyprus (2nd/4th) 245 (120/125)
Ukraine (6th/3rd) 203 (65/140)
Russia (9th/6th) 150 (60/90)
Norway (14th/5th) 135 (40/90)
Sweden (4th/10th) 130 (85/45)
Croatia (10th/7th) 130 (60/70)
Romania (11th/8th) 125 (55/70)
Belgium ( 5th/ 11th) 115 (80/35)
Azerbaijan (7th/9th) 105 (65/ 50)
Israel (8th/15th) 75 (65/10)
North Macedonia (12th/14th) 60 (45/15)
Slovenia (13th/12th) 60 (30/30)
Ireland (15th/13th) 50 (35/15)
Australia (16th/16th) 30 (20/10)
Ireland, Australia and Israel (swapped for Az last minute) not making it through are my main plays.
I have a free run on Belgium to Q, and a large free run on an admittedly unlikely Russian NQ but its not really worth me trading out of. Lithuania top 3 is the main one I'll have to wait on.
Trying to look ahead, there's a case for pretty much every potential qualifier to shorten, particularly given we have two big 5 favourites and it's not impossible Malta re-take the lead should their stats impress (although I'm expecting something more lukewarm). Italy’s rehearsal will go live and its stats will be keenly studied. Without even their clip being shown and with more casual money entering the market I'd say France are likely to slip back somewhat.