Odds Review #14: Week Ending 21/04
This is pretty much the eurojury edition of these odds reviews as the market takes shape based around those results- or at least our estimated averages of those results.
For context- after 27 ‘countries’ have voted, these are the current standings.
Switzerland 156 (7.5 avg per juror)
France 156 (7.2)
Italy 144 (6.9)
Belgium 122 (4.4)
Germany 94 (4.1)
Croatia 78 (3.3)
Israel 60 (2.6)
Sweden 58 (2.9)
Netherlands 50 (1.9)
Serbia 46 (1.6)
Ukraine 44 (2.9) and Greece 44 (1.3)
If these results were to be replicated at Eurovision - which they won’t be- that would put the countries under 50-1 on these Jury numbers:
Switzerland 216-270
France 216-259
Italy 199-248
Croatia 104-119
Israel 80-94
Ukraine 61-104
Netherlands 67-68
Greece 47-61
Naturally, due to threatening the win here and having previously been around the 30 mark, France have attracted much of the backing this week featuring at a new low for Slimane. We have been here before (last year) with France however and residual televote doubts are preventing a further charge. The Netherlands got off to a strong start here causing a move down but their current numbers are not entirely impressive or threatening. Instead, Joost’s momentum, live appearances and self declared ‘big staging’ see them in 3rd with Italy drifting slightly. Ukraine have took the biggest step back however in the odds with a poor start spooking backers and their slow climb back not regaining faith.
Overall, the market hasn’t really gained much confidence so far with the two frontrunners largely unchanged and generally meeting expectations.
