Odds Review 15: The Semi Finalists Rehearse

As has become the custom over the last few years 1st rehearsals are almost entirely closed with photos and a short non-camera feed video all we have to go from and that one week of the year where I temporarily become a fashion critic. I’ll break down some of the developments as broadly as possible in two parts - first looking at the qualifiers situation and then our outright contenders.

Qualification Market

Semi Final 1 initially saw opener Cyprus drift out with an apparently low effort showing, although that has since returned down. Diaspora reliant Serbia and Poland have both seen their odds fall too, for being ‘too boring’ and ‘too hyper’ respectively. Australia also suffered an initial drift with concerns the only place they've gone big is with our lead's dress but have also been backed down again since. The uncertainty elsewhere has made Luxembourg appear safer whilst Portugal seem to be the main unanimous gainer with the rest of the field fairly similar.

My take: Poland to Q is becoming one of the bets of the year whilst Australia at odds on has to be opposed, both on base points theory.

Semi 2 has mainly seen the existing move against Belgium solidify with Mustii reaching 1.3 up from 1.2. In terms of trying to read into pictures I think Belgium is one of the easier to draw conclusions from in concerns over stage presence and self indulgence. Albania have continued to sneak down and are looking to overtake Denmark as the likeliest spoiler - a position many hold them in already.

My take: I still agree with the 10 odds on qualifiers if forced to pick right now, but the value is certainly on going for the upset. Hoping Albania can reach their typical 40-50 and that will be enough is the most reasonable play.

Outright Market

Back to the contenders and typical focus of these updates, Ukraine were up first and expectedly have brought a much improved package on all impressions. Gone are Alyona's monk robes and Jerry's prison guard get up and in come far more neutral, sympathetic outfits. There appears to be a more cinematic and narrative lead staging with a small rock wedge for Jerry to climb. Slow steady drift to 20s reversed back into the low teens.

Baby Lasagna was up next for Croatia and is seemingly unchanged since Dora save for a small costume improvement in going more Balkan. It’s hard to read too much into this one with the main areas of improvement being the performance and direction as a whole, something hard to infer from individual shots. Odds have tended to agree and this has bobbed around based more on others.

Skipping ahead to semi 2 saw Greece take the stage and again this is very hard to judge anything from pictures alone given the one shot camera concept is such a key focus here. It does appear that the madcap energy of the official video has been retained. Initial drift but now shortened in, perhaps with Instagram likes playing a part where this photoset leads the way by a large margin. The Greeks are coming for this hard and Marina’s threat to disrupt the main favourites remains on track for now.

Market leader Switzerland follow with what has proved a very divisive rehearsal. I will be honest in that my concerns have grown substantially here with the most bizarre mix of serious, artistic staging coupled with the most ridiculous outfit possible. Yes, Nemo wearing something like this was always on the cards but I think it's the combination that really throws me. There’s a real cognitive dissonance between the lighting and styling - intentional to be sure with the message but ill judged from a maximising points perspective. The market as a whole has remained steady whilst we wait to see the prop and camerawork in action.

Israel don’t appear to be doing anything extraordinary but have a coherent package with strong national symbolism and lighting as well as one of the better vocalists. They shorten in to low 20s but there is of course more going on here behind that price.

Finally The Netherlands were up last today and in terms of market reaction have suffered the most going from 6s to 9s. Consensus is Joost has overplayed his hand and pushed this too far onto the novelty side of the spectrum. We're still awaiting some key answers in terms of that final 20 seconds and whether he's just messing around still or not but promising this was not.

Italy have jumped back into 3rd by default with them and France still to rehearse.