Malmo Pre Rehearsals Prediction
So, it's time for the final pre rehearsals prediction. Naturally, many of my expectations and estimations remain pretty similar from a month and a half back so feel free to check out that piece for some additional context - it shall save me from making this overly repetitive.
Anyway, in odds order here are my current thoughts on the entries...
Switzerland
Now the market favourite, I believe we've continued to price in the most optimistic outcomes for Nemo and aren't appreciating the variance with this. What we have learned over the last few weeks is that Nemo should be vocally fine, in studio this is one of the jury favourites and that this has grown on the fan community into one of the favourites (a demographic this would arguably over-perform with compared to the TV audiences). That does not equate to 3s in my book. The staging of this remains perhaps the most unpredictable and volatile of the favourites and the televote in serious doubt - I still have that wide range there where Switzerland could do surprisingly well but more likely than not finishes with c.150: the train of momentum and narrative needed to elevevate this into televote winner territory doesn't seem likely enough whilst this will need to dodge one of the few first half spots. It's also worth considering the producers were not particularly kind with placing this 4th in the semi: a semi this is unlikely to emerge the winner as.
Croatia
Not much has changed with Baby Lasagna and Croatia's chances in isolation. Most fan metrics have this in the top 3 and Eurojury has been fine: assuming he can remain high in the reckoning and the Balkans that are present inflate him he's very much on for that televote 1-2, jury 4-6 that was his expected path to victory. My nitpick of the year centers upon his enthrallment with that arm pumping bridge which I had complained about previously and which seems certain to remain; I appreciate the need for a simple meme-able dance move but that remains an underwhelming aspect to the staging. Perhaps I am alone in this but particularly when main televote competitor Joost is likely going to explode in his bridge, that could be the difference maker. As a Croatia backer, I am really hoping for strong camerawork in that section.
The Netherlands
Joost indeed is now in third, all the way into the 7s having been 600s briefly after release. One way or another the market as a whole will be a bit embarrassed over this. Like Switzerland we have begun to inflate this a little and get swallowed up in the momentum. That is an important element of course, but seeing moves from 8s into 5s the other day as his team reveal they are staging this in the only way possible demonstrates the fear on display. Questions over whether the East will get this as much as the West/Benelux have not been resolved conclusively and 'Europapa' has so far only showed the potential to go viral outside of it's core region- rather than actually do so. Still however, I accept that a 300+ televote score is very achievable and as wrote earlier in the year "it's essential to be open minded on what a televote winner could achieve". The Netherlands are well in that discussion and so have to be respected. Instead my main issue still holding me back is that h2h with Croatia where Eurojury has confirmed 'Rim Tim Tagi Dim' has the higher natural jury potential - as was predicted. It's possible staging can bridge that gap but is Joost going to be able to jump all the jury favourites *and* a fairly equal televote favourite that looks stronger on that side? A 7th place jury, 1st place televote could be a winning outcome, but it’s a bit too weak to trust. My opinion is The Netherlands can win but above anything else may need Croatia to underperform.
Italy have dropped down to 4th in the odds and I don't have a lot to say. 'La Noia' is still within range of winning the jury vote but nothing has indicated to me it would do so by a significant margin or with a 250+ type score. Nor have I really changed my televote predictions that there are simply too many alternatives with a bigger call to vote (CRO, NED, ISR, UKR — even SWI/GRE). Angelina needs to have a stronger appeal than I have her down as and exceed my expectations rather than find some silly 3/3, 2/4 split to victory - you're better just backing the extremes and their snowballing effect than banking on that. Everything is nice and solid with Italy, rightly or wrongly I am just having a hard time buying ‘La Noia's great consistency in the metrics will actually translate into the kind of points haul on the night many others believe in.
Ukraine
Ukraine have took another small step back in my view but I will stress not as big as they have in the market.They are a country proven to overperform at the contest itself and from whom we can expect a good staging. Instead, I am slipping them down a little for the same reason I narrowly tipped Croatia above them: this just doesn't feel like the year or field for this and the increased producer power and semi final prioritisation (Cro/Ned) solidifies that. Remains value, particularly at E/W with their points in the bank.
France
France have had a good time of things in Eurojury and whilst I've nudged them up in jury expectations we've seen numerous overperformances from them in these metrics previously. Regardless, in an absolute winner conversation I don't see Slimane getting anywhere near enough on the televote to threaten - and I say this as someone very keen on Mengoni's ballad last year to which this has been compared.
Israel actually exceeded my Eurojury expectations noticeably: I was expecting a somewhat more fan aligned group of jurors to perhaps be scared to put their name behind this for fear of being cancelled as 'zionists' but that hasn't really panned out. Enough seem to support Israel, or just plain like the song to start to make this genuinely dangerous, whilst the conditions and narrative needed to turn Eden into a televote winner are slowly brewing in Malmo. It's important to stay ahead of the curve and at the minimum a sea of boos and strong media coverage are likely. I am starting to believe Israel could get to 130-150 jury points and from there something is possible. Ukraine were being backed at heavy odds on in 2022 and never went beyond 20s last year, Israel was 5s before the new year, as was Bashar Murad pre selection. To me, current odds are ridiculously cheap insurance at the minimum given the market's recent fear of the sympathy vote. Heck we have Ireland not too much bigger on the estimation they could qualify and be backed in by casuals. Backing this to at least break-even has to be the play, how much higher than that is the part up for debate.
Ireland
As just touched on, this isn't really 40-50s for it's winning potential. Eurojury is OK, fan standings kind of meh, outside indicators not great and my personal trust of RTE and their budget low. Hit or Miss entry in which hit might see them into 9th.
Greece
Marina Satti also remains as you were pretty much but there's a case she may be overperforming in a few indicators - being comfortably in a springer position. I do think this will be a pretty solid top 10 and could be very impressive/inflated live. I'm cautiously expecting good things and current odds do appeal but I don't have the confidence to nail my flag to the mast like for some outsiders in previous years.
Belgium
Rounding out the top 10 is Mustii and it's quite incredible how quickly faith has been lost here - he's now around his highest price all season. At least the part of the last preview in which I described him as the only then favourite I was confident against has aged well. I do expect him to qualify still and be pushed into the top 10 by juries.
Sweden
I think I should mention Sweden being an entry I tipped e/w and once again I do think there's been a bit of an overreaction here. Eurojury could and should be doing better for Marcus and Martinus but them showing up and placing 3rd or something at the actual contest would still not surprise me, and they should still be getting 100ish on the televote. They won't win, but E/W now offers up to 30s they can sneak 4th whilst top 10 and top Nordic around 2s are generous. #DoubleDown
Finally, I want to tip my early runners for last place. I think we'll be looking around 30 points this time around with my current favourites being Estonia and Austria as likely qualifiers who feel a little redundant in the final without much diaspora support and unlikely to receive jury love. Spain is incredible value at 5s+ where I have nicked some and you have my guarantee esc jurors will appreciate this less than Eurojury. Luxembourg are in that picture but with Israel and their region coming in for support I expect them to be clear. Germany are not safe despite Eurojury and neither is the UK - as arguably the weakest performing big 5 overall.
Current Prediction:
1. Croatia 450 (160 J/290 TV)
2. Netherlands 420 (120 J/300 TV)
3. Switzerland 410 (260 J/150 TV)
4. Ukraine 400 (140 J/260 TV)
5. Italy 350 (190 J/160 TV)
6. Israel 330 (120 J/210 TV)
7. Greece 270 (110 J/160 TV)
8. Sweden 260 (160 J/90 TV)
9. France 240 (170 J/70 TV)
10. Belgium 210 (160 J/ 50 TV)
So, this kind of feels like I am getting a little out of line, not necessarily because I'm not listing in odds order: there's always some changes but because of how televote dominated that top 4 is - 3/4 and the entire podium are expected to be TV picks and by a considerable margin. My problem is only Switzerland feels an explosive enough jury entry to comfortably cross the 200 pts barrier and get enough pts banked and even then that 250-270 I have them in for currently does not feel certain/enough to hold on for victory or even a medal.
My expectation is that the televote will be heavily dominated by Croatia, Netherlands, Ukraine who I expect to share around 800pts between themselves. If Israel enter the picture fully that's well over a thousand between the four of them and there simply won't be room for anyone else to score sufficiently.
Further, I've touched on this already but the increased producer power must be accounted for and we simply have to acknowledge the existing signs - Croatia and The Netherlands were both given the best possible draws in their respective semi finals and such pushing is liable to continue - both are heavy odds on to win their heats and it appears we are actively looking for a popular televote winner. It is not only Baby Lasagna and Joost (moreso the Dutch delegation) who have took inspiration perhaps from Kaarijaa, but the EBU too. To varying degrees of legitimacy with Israel being the most serious, there are also theories as to our other contenders not being the favoured hosts. With all this, it's too easy to see this year being pitched as and actually coming down to Croatia vs The Netherlands, a bit similar to how 2018 turned into a showdown between two televote leaning entries. Someone else from that top 6 could absolutely come through, but that is the way the wind is blowing and out of the pair, I'm fairly satisfied with Croatia - the televote may be close, the juries should have Lasagna far enough ahead. Were all the Balkans here, it would be easier to be confident. At the end of the day, I have a low winning total and just 60 pts between the top 4, followed by an unpredictable Israel and an Italy I am (for a change) just missing something with. I don’t and I don't think anyone should have any single country above a 30% win chance - there is a serious chance for 6 countries going into rehearsals - those first six in my prediction, with Greece the only possible outsider in my view.
My Position
Through a combination of luck and skill I've managed to be on the right end or right enough of most of the favourites this year.
From the relevant countries of the odds I'm currently at:
Big Green - Croatia, Israel, Ukraine, Greece
Fair Green - Netherlands
Break Even to Small Green - Switzerland, Italy
The rest of the market is pretty irrelevant - I have my reds and greens but only France present me with a real challenge if I wished to cover.
I’ll be frequently over at x giving my thoughts over the next weeks and will have more in depth updates here. Good luck to all involved.