Semi Final 2: Pre Rehearsals Preview
On the whole, semi final two is a lot more interesting than semi one. Whilst personally this doesn't reach the same highs - it also avoids some of the lows whilst we have the more characterful pre qualified countries also on display. There’s also more to debate at the top of the market with more entries in the running for a top 3 placing and possibly even the win. Before we get to that however, let’s start at the bottom once again…
Czechia are my tip for last. Aiko is actually faring OK away from us in the betting community but I don't see a route out of the semi for her. This is a broadcaster without much of a budget and an act who hasn't convinced me live in really being someone's choice to vote for above all others combined with them starting effectively on 0 here.
Malta is an odd one where there is something just a little 'off' about the whole thing that goes beyond the "Slo mo at home" vibes. Starting the semi may be an indication that SVT have got some faith in this and some more original trimmings are being applied. With vocal support and slick staging, 'Loop' may not be that bad but Malta's lack of televote support and poor record makes qualifying in this semi a big ask whilst all indicators are pretty atrocious.
We start to get a bit more interesting and maybe controversial with the next two picks with Denmark and Latvia tipped to be some way off qualifying. They are grouped together both on points range but thematically too with Dons and Saba both being good singers but lacking much charisma (on stage). They are also bringing more conventional, downbeat and dare I say boring songs and are grouped around the middle of the running order between the more distinctive efforts of Austria, Armenia and Spain/San Marino. Even if those aren't the strongest entries, I am thinking they will drown out 'Sand' and 'Hollow'. In the old system both of these would have a much better chance but with 100% televote semis now their poor records likely continue.
Next up I have the aforementioned San Marino. Like always, the metrics are pretty terrible for the most serene republic but there might be an outside sneak at qualification. Points should be expected from Spain and potentially the rest of the world vote (40% of Spain's admittedly dire TV score in last year's final came from there in I assume a Spanish speaking/Latin American push). Given I have 4 entries already I really don't rate, it’s possible San Marino could add the remaining 2-3 pts per country needed to get over the line. Megara are also more trusted to put on a good show than most of San Marino’s past representatives. The main concern is the ‘rock chick’ aesthetic being a traditional red flag with multiple past failures.
Just missing out in my current prediction is Albania. Going 2nd isn't a huge deal for them in my book - it’s not as if casuals would be voting for this if swapped with Denmark in 7th for example. Instead there are two question's here - how fussy is the diaspora that this isn't very ethnic and can anyone else fall down? Getting 30-50 pts in this favourable set of countries.
That means we are now into my provisional Qualifiers and I have Georgia sat on the borderline. Every indicator so far is just about OK but I do worry if this is a bit forgettable with far more distinctive female led entries on display. The draw is fine but could have also gave more of a helping hand to a country struggling to make the final but clearly stepping up their efforts.
Austria have been one of the main losers from the pre-party season (and Eurojury). I’ve always been on the side this wouldn't do particularly well but do still have this as a qualifier. We are in an era of the contest where vocals don’t really matter given the backing support available and Kaleen can fulfil the rest of this well enough. I would certainly not be backing at sub 1.2 however.
Estonia look fairly enough priced in the 1.3-1.4 range. The draw and lineup is fine whilst this does have a different energy to a lot of entries on offer. This could become certain during rehearsals if the performance has improved from Eesti Laul but for now I’m not 100% sold.
Speaking of not being sold and also entries to have had a bad time over the last few weeks I have Belgium up next. The situation has got so bad for poor Mustii that he’s not only drifting in the win market now but also here, currently sitting in the 1.2-1.3 range. That might be about right; despite the unconvincing appeal this is still far superior to and drawn better than a lot of the alternatives in this semi. The only danger would be if Switzerland eats up all his song appeal and The Netherlands all of his regional appeal.
Armenia is the first entirely comfortable country in my opinion and also one I am fairly happy with slapping here right in the middle. Ladaniva are a reliable live act and this is drawn well with great staging potential. I do have a lower ceiling than some however with this and I’m not particularly considering them for a top 3 in this semi.
We take the next step up in strength now for me where I find Norway in 5th. Drawn second to last is a great position for Gåte who tick both the ethnic sound and rock boxes well. Honestly 5th feels as low as this will go. It’s also the only ‘serious contender’ here we have seen in a competetive contest setting adding a little more certainty.
Greece take 4th in my current prediction and I give them a more serious but still outside chance at winning the semi - mainly due to that 3rd place in the running order (in particular vs a certain other entry yet to be discussed). I do feel there are a lot of big scores on offer from the likes of Albania, Georgia, Armenia and Israel but ‘Zari’ is a lot to take in for a casual westerner on a first listen. I am a fan of the claimed one shot staging concept and a team of Fokas, Majnoon and Marina herself are to be took seriously.
Next up we have current outright favourites Switzerland. Is this low? Is this high? I don't know, Switzerland (on the televote) to me remain almost as volatile as a month ago. The complete car crash scenario looks unlikely but if this was to finish in 5th here that would be understandable too at this stage. Going 4th is a bad draw for a country with not many bankable points and I'm not sure how the back to back with Greece plays out - it’s an odd place for this to have been positioned. Feels like a 2nd-5th but some explosive potential to take the semi win.
Another difficult entry to place is Israel. First without any outside narrative going on we'd probably be discussing this as a 5th-8th. Instead this could be a 1st-6th. What the geo-politics will be in a few weeks time is beyond my pay grade but what I can speculate on is the environment in Malmo; a sea of boos, hostility from vocal fans and potentially but hopefully not something more substantial. Things could be surprisingly calm but there's a dangerous narrative potential and room to motivate votes. Returning to the song, ‘Hurricane’ is actually pretty decent for what it is and does fill a gap in those semi and final quite well anyway.
Finally we come to The Netherlands whose semi it appears to be to lose. Not only is the main speculated televote rival overall in Croatia appearing on the Tuesday night (along with Ukraine and Finland for what it's worth), Italy are not in the running here whilst the running order advantage over Switzerland and Greece is seismic. The strong regional reaction and threat to go viral highlights the potential appeal here whilst we wait to see what staging is brought.
Current Prediction
Netherlands 176 (68% win/100%Q)
Israel 143 (12% win/99% Q)
Switzerland 137 (12% win/99% Q)
Greece 133 (5% win/99% Q)
Norway 127 (1% win/ 99% Q)
Armenia 91 (1% win/ 90% Q)
Belgium 71 (1% win/ 75% Q)
Estonia 57 (0% win/ 70% Q)
Austria 49 (0% win/ 60% Q)
Georgia 48 (0% win/ 60% Q)
Albania 45 (0% win/ 45% Q)
San Marino 39 (0% win/ 33% Q)
Denmark 19 (0% win/ 20% Q)
Latvia 17 (0% win/ 20% Q)
Malta 5 (0% win/ 10% Q)
Czechia (0% win/ 5% Q)
Unlike semi 1 I have actually built up a book around the win market here which has pretty much turned into an ‘anyone but Nemo’ affair. The Netherlands around 1.4 is exiting value territory for now but I do have the other runners closer to Switzerland than the odds suggest. Likewise, there’s a case for backing Greece, Norway and Israel top 3 (Expecting to get 1, maybe 2) or laying Nemo there - I have him in but narrowly.
It’s similar down in the qualification betting; I expect Austria and Georgia to qualify but the value would be on opposing whilst Albania in particular and even San Marino seem underrated by the market. Personally, I’m waiting before moving on any of those with bets against Denmark and Latvia my main play so far.