Cats,Chickens,Witches and Flamingos: What has changed in rehearsals?
For a quick little update since the last prediction on here and to cover some of the rehearsals changes, I’ve gone through the favourites seeing what momentum is being carried into Eurovision week. The ratings given are based on how well this period has gone for each of the acts in my opinion, relative to their ambitions coming into this.
Croatia have retaken the lead in the odds and from what we have seen, this is justified and current odds of 3.25 are probably fair. Croatia and our innexperienced Marco have seemingly managed to create one of the most professional and eyecathcing stagings of the year, just by improving upon the Dora formula. As much as they are making all the right moves, they will also take encouragement over a certain rival’s less positive time in rehearsals and continued lack of an apparent jury runaway leader. There is a strong case now that Croatia are not only best of the televote rest, but very much on track for a jury 4th place, taking the Maneskin route to victory.
It’s hard to see this shortening much from here however and this is as low as anything should go in this year at this stage. A positive omen for Baby Lasagna is that the market has a very strong recent record at this stage of landing on the winner.
Rehearsals Rating: 9/10
Switzerland have had a more mixed to negative reaction to their rehearsals with doubts over Nemo’s outfit and ability to connect under a highly choreographed performance. Still in second favourite although I am seeing few with Switzerland as their outright prediction compared to the other big 4. The jury win has also drifted with concerns this may not score as consistently as France and Italy. Still a bit hard to read but so far I’ve not been won over into believing in ‘The Code’.
Rehearsals Rating: 3/10
Ukraine are back up to third favourite and well into single figures again having pulled of one of their old staging masterclasses. We are yet to see alyona alyona in action in the 30 seconds released but so far they have exceeded even my high expectations. Will be leapfrogging a lot of countries ahead of them in the various polls and metrics although we do have to remember they were further back than would be ideal and how many new voters beyond the diaspora etc have been gained could be up for debate.
Rehearsals Rating: 9/10
Italy have had a mixed reaction in rehearsals and a more up and down time of things, seeing their stand in leaked. That they have improved upon that and their first rehearsal shows just how seriously Angelina, her team and Rai are taking the contest this year. Overall, I’d say 90% of staunch supporters remain with some a bit more doubtful. As someone who’s never been overly keen, this looks slightly more dangerous by default to me than before rehearsals and in my eyes have solidified themselves as the most televote friendly of the jury reliant entries, with dodging that 1st half having proved vital. I will be surprised if producers are not generous.
Rehearsals Rating: 7/10
Netherlands ‘Europapa’ is still something I wish to see in full and with a crowd but after doing so well dragging the market and fandom into this, there looks to have been a big miscalculation in angling this deeper down the novelty route - to the point were Windows95man is more of a comparison point than Baby Lasagna. The bridge doesn’t look impactful and our emotional ending not convincing in the clip. That is quite a volatile aspect however and could easily look much better on the night- it’s hard to look genuinely emotional the 6th time rehearsing a bit behind closed doors. Overall it’s hard to argue against the drift and their winning chances in my opinion are in the bin now with a jury 3 figure score unlikely. May return to some conversation for E/W or the tele win if it impresses in the post semi stats.
Rehearsals Rating: 2/10
France have edged into jury favouritism and that might be fair in looking the safest destination for pts out of the big three and seeing the likes of potential rivals Belgium further disappoint. Slimane might be trying a bit too hard but sometimes a cheesy approach and memorable gimmick can work well enough. Drawing second half was also obviously great for him and I’ve nudged his expected televote above 100. Realistically, a 280J 170TV taking him into winning range still looks very unlikely to me but he can find himself in the top 4 if the real juries appreciate him as much as Eurojury - not always the case with French entries.
Rehearsals Rating: 8/10
Ireland have seen a bit of an odds crash this week thanks to fan hype and strong visuals. There’s also the expectation of further money coming for this and whether that will be a self fulfilling prophecy or going to cause an abundance of supply for Irish casuals is yet to be seen. The last run on Ireland in 2018 happened due to unexpected success and hype, this time around it sounds like every speculator is waiting to offload Wednesday morning. Undoubtedly had a good time and some really poor rehearsals elsewhere in semi 1 should see this through fairly comfortably. Realistically, the ceiling of a low top 10 looks unchanged.
Rehearsals Rating: 9/10
Israel have had a pretty uneventful time which has seen them drift a little. Eden is good vocally as expected and there’s some strong imagery used but ntohing really out of the ordinary or different to expectations.
Rehearsals Rating: 5/10
The UK are heading back above 100-1 with us having seen their high concept, highly sexualised performance clip. I’m not sure much has fundamentally changed here in actually increasing the appeal of this either to jurors or the televote. More cinematic but is Olly now a less safe destination for jurors to fill their top tens with? Drawing 1st half a blow for any televote hopes which I predict to remain low. I’ve nudged up a few places into more respectable territory but am not conviced and this is not a big triumph in my opinion.
Rehearsals Rating: 6/10
Greece is another I do want to see in full given the concept before coming to a certain conclusion on but some of the styling and colours used are sub-par. I would say 30s-40s up to 100s+ is a bit of an overreaction but there was admittedly such a narrow path for this to threaten that it may not be. Not worried for top 10 ambitions currently.
Rehearsals Rating: 4/10
Other Countries
Outlook Improved: Georgia, Portugal,
Outlook Unchanged: Azerbaijan, Malta, Czechia, Denmark, San Marino, Latvia, Germany, Spain, Austria, Iceland, Luxembourg, Poland, Armenia, Sweden, Finland, Norway, Moldova
Outlook Worsened: Cyprus, Serbia, Australia, Albania, Estonia, Belgium, Slovenia
Current Opinion
The escbetting prediction remains Croatia, as it has been since mid march. Ukraine jump back up a spot as the next most likely for me with my brief affair with Joost over. #Slava. Italy are the next most likely both in my own view and in acknowledging I may simply be underrating the package here. Unless something happens with Israel in the next week it really looks to be one of those three to me at this stage with doubts over Switzerland, France and The Netherlands having the legs for victory. Anything else is very fanciful to go all the way but I wouldn’t oppose something “unexpected” making it into 4th.