Eurovision 2024: Semi Final One Preview
I remember introducing last year’s semi preview in much the same way but sadly the same one applies: this is quite a small field with just 15 countries looking to make it through and ten available slots. On behalf of everyone involved in speculating on this, the combination of some certainties on both sides means we really should be looking at 9/10 being a par score and the minimum target. There is the added complication of the automatic qualifiers (The UK, Germany and Sweden here) all performing throughout the show. This is new for us and what if any impact there will be is unknown. Might The UK or Sweden affect the vote for Lithuania as similar tracks despite not officially competing? Will those earlier in the evening suffer with an elongated draw increasing the bias towards those at the back? Will drunk Brits try and vote for Ar Lad Olly as song 5? We’re not too sure yet.
As a small spoiler, I agree with many of the odds here (certainly in terms of position at least) and so this might be a more predictable read than semi 2, and a pretty safe list of qualifiers. With that, let’s crack on…
Iceland and Moldova are pretty universally dismissed and for good reason, towards if not at the bottom of any stat you care to look at. Neither came through their national finals emphatically with Hera relying on an anti-vote superfinal and Natalia a jury tie-break. Realistically, both seem to have accepted they are not going to qualify too having not really tried much with staging- particularly Moldova. Azerbaijan have a stronger song (I actually really like this one) and staging so theoretically have more of a shot. Their pre-contest stats are equally bad however and their recent televote record very poor. Overall, this just falls flat live with its cold aesthetic and I find it more likely this ends in single figures than qualifying, the market has also moved heavily against this over the last days. From this maligned trio, I have Hera sneaking the most points with perhaps an ever so slightly underrated casual appeal.
That leaves us with just 12 countries left for the 10 spots, a very low threshold that someone can fall over which looks to be one from Serbia, Slovenia and Australia. And by fall over, I do mean that as all three have ended up as weak packages. Like Azerbaijan, Australia lack a cultural fit with the rest of the countries here and there’s a big question of whether this connects or is entirely dismissed. It’s the most fun of the three by far, the best drawn and has the higher ceiling, but this is a judgement call that I just don't trust the televote to appreciate this, particularly in the East. The performance itself is pretty poor and whilst there’s a nod to the big staging required to make this uplifting, it’s not enough for me. I have big didgeridoubts.
Both Serbia and Slovenia have made a bigger mess of their stagings but the latter is also affected by Ireland in the war of the witches. ‘Veronika’ is an awkward and compromised in-between, almost as off-putting as ‘Doomsday Blue’ but without the real ability to get into this either. Whilst Bambi is love-hate, this is meh-hate. Serbia have took a backwards step since their national final to my eyes and are severely struggling with the weight of the death spot. This package as is wouldn’t do great from anywhere but sets the tone to casuals to instantly dismiss this. They do have a stronger and wider diaspora who should be more engaged with this patriotic song (caveat this is another that didn’t win it’s NF televote) so it is them I am tipping to sneak in in 10th with a very low total, as is their tradition.
For those paying attention and ready to puul me up, yes that means I have all of the first 7 songs qualifying. This is unprecedented and a statistical anomaly, but my primary focus is on song appeal, followed by diaspora and bloc/historical support, and then running order. Should you wish to also have these 7 but are very caught up in the stats, there are mental gymnastics that can be performed to be more comfortable with this outcome:
The UK is technically our 5th entry to perform whilst Iceland has sort of been booted into the first half too. That instead makes it read as 7/9 qualifying for the final. Personally, I’m not getting overly caught up in this and am a believer that just because something hasn't happened, doesn't mean it can't.
Our remaining 9 spots fill themselves pretty much. Luxembourg, Cyprus, Portugal, Ireland, Finland, Ukraine, Croatia, Lithuania and indeed Poland are all somewhere upwards of 80%+ to qualify. ‘The Tower’ sure is random, but this is not some ‘The Ride’ level mess to make Poland miss out in a semi of this standard with such a favourable set of countries historically. Not all of these entries are great, but they look outside the margin of reasonable doubt now to slip from 60+ pts to NQ territory.
Winners and Top 3
Anything other than a Croatia vs Ukraine top 2 here would be a big surprise. Like the odds, I give the overall edge to Croatia. Ukraine is underrepresented in polling including last night’s arena poll and this semi does skew slightly more favourably to them than the final so the value may be on the upset again with ‘Teresa and Maria’ back on the drift. Overall, I wouldn’t be surprised if Serbia end up deciding the outcome here with a guaranteed 12 for ‘Rim Tim Tagi Dim’ and probability of giving Ukraine the lowest score in the semi.
The combination however of me still having Croatia as a narrow victor and fact there’s no payout until Sunday morning means that I have staked exactly nothing on the winner of this semi. Less escbetting and more esc-sitting-on-the-sidelines.
The last spot in the top 3 looks to be between Ireland, Lithuania and Finland in a battle between edgelords, diaspora and drunk casuals. I wasn't considering getting involved here either but I think the market is now underestimating the novelty of Windows95man and I have him narrowly ahead of Lithuania. Bambie is a steady 5th place in my book: it would not surprise me should she climb to 3rd, but that feels the balance between the western centric bubble caught up in the old exceeding expectations hype whilst forgetting the fundamentals and poor lead in this has.
Prediction
Croatia (175) 62% Win (100% Q)
Ukraine (165) 32% Win (100% Q)
Finland (121) 1% Win (100% Q)
Lithuania (115) 0% Win (100% Q)
Ireland (106) 5% Win (90% Q)
Poland (78) (90% Q)
Portugal (74) (85% Q)
Cyprus (72) (80% Q)
Luxembourg (66) (80% Q)
Serbia (45) (60% Q)
Slovenia (32) (30% Q)
Australia (28) (35% Q)
Iceland (14) (10% Q)
Azerbaijan (8) (10% Q)
Moldova (5) (5% Q)
My Position
My main interest will be seeing Poland through to the final which I have been backing heavily, mostly in the 1.3s.
I also have a position against Australia (sold around 1.75) I plan to stick with, although there is risk here and whilst I have it lower than Slovenia in points, there is more range to climb and actually Q. All of Azerbaijan, Iceland and Moldova not making it would also be appreciated. In fact, coupled with Slovenia not to make it I have odds of 4.6 on getting the complete set.
Sells of Ireland around 1.5 were traded out around 1.3, cancelled out by buys of Portugal 1.8+ cashed in.
And lastly the small previously mentioned Finland top 3 around 4s will be what I’m hoping to find in the results release. On a completely unrelated topic - I pray no backup jury is needed…
Going forward, I have also been adding Cyprus to my last place shortlist above 40s. It feels a stretch given they have a good few points in the bank (Greek, Aussie televotes, Israel look friendly, previous Kontopoulos entry’s records) and would be a shame for Silia who I don’t think has been supported enough with the staging but if we get a high scoring last place (around 40pts) they could slip into it or come close.
May the best countries qualify and see you on the other side.