Sending Shivers Down The Market: What Happened To Italy 2022?
The list of false favourites in Eurovision is a long one but rarely does an entry pull in as many believers as Mahmood & Blanco's Brividi only to achieve a pretty modest top 10 result. There are plenty also who reached shorter odds than Brividi ever did but none of these quite fill the same criteria. France 2011 and Armenia 2014 both had many doubters, Russia 2016's price was also questioned and also came relatively close anyway whilst yours truly was a vocal doubters on Sweden 2016 and Italy 2017 in the days before this site. In fact, 'Brividi' is the only really false favourite I feel I have 'fallen for' in my time following the contest which is the main reason I'm using this as the case study. If there's some solace- it's that I was not alone on this so let's jump in and start the dissection!
It was always simply 'overrated'.
The easiest answer does hold some truth, particularly when comparing the odds for this compared to where 'Zitti E Buoni' was at the same stage. Different years, different fields and all but there was always a little unease at the comparable lack of value even if it did spend the entire pre season as mine and many others' predicted winner. Whilst the betting community's top pick, it was never *that* high or decisive on fan polling and the like. Whilst they throw up their own false favourites, they can be of use in identifying ours.
There are also plenty of occasions where the first market reaction is wrong but it was only when Brividi emerged as a clear favourite for San Remo with its statistics that it was re-appraised quickly. I myself changed opinion quickly from 'Italy don't have much' to 'that is the one to beat'. How much did group think and herd mentality affect mine and others thoughts?
The False Comfort of Familiarity and Statistics
Specials Betting is unique amoung gambling with a much greater presence of 'art' within the mix of art, science (and luck) and what data we have is also more open to interpretation. This combines to make successful statistical analysis at times wanting. 'Brividi' presented an overload of positive indicators that made it easy to install as the favourite having the most convincing national final result and streaming data. On top of that was Italy's exceptional track record and Mahmood's previous contest success. In a contest with the Ukraine uncertainty and two regular last placers also in the running this helped to push many bettors to run into the reasuring arms of 'Brividi'.
Much like with Sweden most years (and also in 2022), backing Italy was the safe thing to do. The assumptions around Italy and televoters having a penchant for Italian music and styling are not disproved by 'Brividi' falling short- I mean you could even argue that helped it still. The point again is that pre contest stats or national final results, have a relatively loose relationship with what actually happens on that Saturday night in a full field, as does a country's or a performer's track record even.
They are indicators sure, but no more than that and collectively we need to improve at taking each year's entry in issolation and judging what data is and isn't relevant which is where more of the art comes into it.
We also see year after year returning artists who've had some success set out at a much shorter price in expectation they'll be able to repeat their results when again the trend is negative is anything. It's easy to back a more 'known' quantity but rarely is Eurovision so straightforward.
The 3 minute edit
Getting 'Brividi' to work within the time limit was always acknowledged as a challenge. There's no one bit that coul be chopped off without damaging the flow, no amount of surgery without impacting the story being told. Whilst time is quantifiable, the perception of it's passing of course isn't. Going back to the San Remo version, it still holds attention better than songs half it's length and doesn't feel so much longer than the esc cut. I wouldn't label the edit we did get as "wrong" necessarily, but the magic is lost, something I and others weren't definitive enough on at the time. One of the pitfalls of being involved in the contest from early in the season is being left with a first impression that the wider audience will never receive. This can work both ways and it's no coincidence that the main missed runner of 2021 in 'Shum' also saw significant changes from the first version we heard - revamps and edits throw more confusion into the mix.
The Draw
Because of the perceived gap in quality between 'Brividi' and the field, the placing of 9th was given a bit of a free pass at the time. We've seen many winners from this sort of placing of course, but that is skewed by the fact that since the random draw for all countries was done away with, 'potential winners' have been placed around here. 9th is better than 2nd but unarguably worse than 22nd and to be fair, a reasonable few ticks drift was observed at the time. The real issue arrived with the full draw when Spain were placed in 10th and Ukraine in 12th.
A draw like this was more expected:
7th Ukraine
8th (filler)
9th Italy
10th (filler)
11th (filler)
12th Spain
Instead, Italy ended up memory holed in a clear concession of the title which brings us neatly onto the next point...
The Host Factor
Being the reigning champions and the hosting duties that (this year apart) come with that bring's it's own set of complications that could make up an entire separate analysis piece. When a country selects a dud to start with they're simple enough to ignore but any competitive entry is harder to judge. The most successful home acts of the past decade all have accusations of 'toning it down' from Azerbaijan's Mugam and Denmark's flag to Frans' lighting for Sweden in 2016 and with hindsight Italy can be included too but we’ll come onto the performance shortly.
Italy also showed a shadow of the reputation of 1990 and the organisation of the contest and production of the show was undeniably sub-par which came as a surprise to me. The malfunctioning stage of sun-gate became a distraction and a symbol for the unfulfilled potential of Turin. Whilst this is a behind the scenes matter, jury points are very much influenced by who's hot and who's hot and the idea of Italy 2023 was not an appealing one within the delegation bubble- especially with a rejuvenated UK and Spain and the ever reliable Sweden in the running.
The Performance on The Night
As touched on above, Italy's rehearsals were impacted by Mahmood and Blanco's busy schedule and were a bumpy ride to follow. Trust me, there were significantly worse efforts in those run through’s than what we ended up with. Going back to the two main lives after all these months I’d have to say Blanco regressed across all aspects but the performance is still by no means bad or unexpected. I’ve included the links below for a refresher but for me there’s more an issue of comparison versus the field. It’s rare you can regress at all from national final season and win but practically impossible when pretty much every rival ups their game or exceeds expectations. The takeaway for me is that whilst slightly weaker than back at San Remo- Mahmood and Blanco simply fail to stand out amongst the increased competition that Eurovision proper always brings whcih brings us neatly into our final point…
Momentum And The Narrative
We're in abstract territory here but by the time of the final no-one was talking about Italy. Instead of a 'can they do the double?' scenario (which is a bit of a mixed bag anyway for votermotivation) all focus had shifted onto the stories of a resurgent UK and Spain to a lesser extent at the time. Sweden and even Moldova had picked up the post semi boost and positive draws and of course we all know about Ukraine. Being seen as in the running can change perceptions which is why we have seen odds manipulation at many times in the past and a country's movement in the odds in the final days can be more indicative of outcome than their actual position. The lack of positive buzz around Italy due to the previous issues we’ve talked about only compounded them, leaving Italy down in 6th place.
Final Thoughts
I think it's only when you take all those listed factors together you realise how Italy fell below early expectations. You can't attribute a point value to each of the reasons, but can soon see how a -5% drag here and another -3% and so on in theory could snowball together. Add to that our general expectations probably inflating maximum potential to start with and the difference in early predictions to the outcome becomes very understandable.
With hindsight and seeing what score Ukraine were able to achieve, Italy were never going to win, but a top 4 finish or silver medal was very realistic back in February. Every country's final point tally is the culmination of months of branching outcomes rather than being set in stone from day 1 and most of us were too slow to realise Italy were on the wrong path.