Best and Worst Calls
With the 2021 contest kicking into gear join me as I take a look back at some of my most and least successful predictions and see if there is anything we can learn.
The Good…
Portugal/Italy 2017 - I'll combine the two here, as they kind of go hand in hand. There were few people who were not on board the Italy hype train back in 2017 and its easy to forget just how big of an upset it was for Francesco Gabbani to end up in 6th place. After San Remo, there were few willing to suggest ‘Occidentali’s Karma’ would not win. I was one of those sceptical of the chances of this one, partly because of the flaws of appearing too gimmicky, the unconvincing edit and the fact there was good quality elsewhere. Italy's staging also turned out to be a mess which was always possible. Portugal on the other hand was just special, a unique moment in recent eurovision history, and in contrast to Italy, stole all the momentum and got the staging spot on. Italy close to odds on and Portugal available at around 14s or higher for months was a steal. I never imagined such a landslide victory for Portugal - no one did- and Italy somehow managed to finish even lower than I, as one of Italy's biggest doubters expected.
Cyprus 2018 - I'm not going to pretend I picked this out as a winner pre-rehearsals, although I did have a substantial amount on the qualification markets which priced this barely odds on. Instead this is a case of following the rehearsals and being able to judge that the hype was warranted. Getting on this quick set me up well for finals night after a fairly uneventful run up to the contest and other countries I fancied falling to the wayside. You're not always going to be able to lead the charge on a dark horse such as in 2017, sometimes it's enough just to know when to jump on the bandwagon.
Azerbaijan 2019- Of course, I would have made a significant amount more had Chingiz scraped an e/w in the semi or final but, just like the stock market, buying high and selling low is never a bad thing and a reminder that its important to get off at the right time too. 3 figure odds were available until rehearsals despite the respectable performance of 'Truth' in several of the key metrics in the run up. The top 10 market always has value, often too much to cover everything, but odds of 2/1 were overly generous given the Symphonix’s and Azerbaijan's track record (when on form).
Armenia 2019 A slightly different one to the outright picks here and one opposing a country rather than supporting. ‘Walking Out’ is one I felt would underperform by a significant amount. A classic case of a quality song and a good performer not being suited to the competitive environment it found itself in. The first issue was the draw, with walking out not a classic show opener by any stretch. Then there was the level of quality in that semi final, particularly in the second half. There were too many likely televote favourites (Russia, Azerbaijan, Norway) whilst the signs were there that North Macedonia were going to do well- if not quite that well- with the juries. A lot of the points were already hoovered up in my reckoning. Armenia also have a long recent history of staging their entries dark and aggressively, which is exactly what happened here but the decision to insert rehearsal clips with an empty arena into the performance was baffling and perhaps the single worst staging decision of recent times. The markets rapidly lost faith around here and poor Srbuk didn't come close to qualifying.
Hopefully the above calls will help to show how the different ways of making money at eurovision, from calling a false fave/picking a long odds winner and judging the rehearsals to buying high and selling low and getting involved in the qualification markets. Unfortunately it’s now time for me to put on my humility hat.
The Bad…
It’s vital to remember not all your picks are going to come good and anyone pretending they have not made a bad prediction in their time is lying. Let’s see what we can learn from some of my worst calls
Australia 2016 -This is here at the top of the list despite not actually losing me any money. 2016 was the first year of me betting on the contest seriously and for whatever reason I couldn't separate my personal opinion on 'Sound of Silence' from my betting. I backed songs I liked to NQ and put money on others that I would never listen to again so this was fairly isolated just to this one song. I could see the big jury score and EBU push coming a mile away but instead of backing the song just complained about it and convinced myself that the public would not go for it. In the end, I was kind of right but put myself 23 points (9 if we correct the Danish jury scores) away from a big loss rather than a healthy win.
This was thankfully an isolated case, betting on personal taste alone is a sure way to go broke, or at the very least miss out on some good value.
Latvia 2016 -The second 2016 entry to make the cut is an entirely different case as its one I felt would come good but never did. I thought the 20s and 30s pre rehearsal were good value and loaded up at 70+ after the semi final expecting at least a bit of a challenge and maybe an e/w. Nope. Instead Justs came nowhere with either the public or juries. A bit of an acquired taste and Justs did lack the artistry of some of the previous year's successful edgy entries but its still surprising how badly this performed, even losing out in the top Baltic market to Donny Montell which ate into that year's profits. Unlike with Australia, I know I'd probably do similar again with this, sometimes you just fancy something to do well. These failed dark horses come with the territory and are part of the equation. You can't get all of them right. As long as you're getting a good price, have some good reasoning there and balancing your book elsewhere, it's fine to just get one wrong every so often and not really know how.
Greece 2018 -More straightforward stuff here, again I felt Greece were good value at around 40 pre rehearsals. I did have reservations (and always do with any song) about how this would be staged during the instrumental. The rehearsal reaction was overwhelmingly negative with the whole blue hand and Yianna's vocals being off. Any hope of a good result was gone and that money written off. I did think Greece would still qualify despite a tricky semi final and went against the drift here, costing me even more. I've had Greece's number quite well the other years backing the NQ early in 2016 and strongly opposing the win and top 10 in 2019 when some were talking up their chances so this was hopefully a one off lapse in judgment.
Various 2019 -2019 was a good year for me but there was an awful lot I did not expect. On the day of the final I thought Russia would miss the top 5, did not see 'Soldi' coming so close to winning and never would have gave literally no chance that Norway would win the televote or North Macedonia the jury vote (although I had them both top 10 in each). Looking at my 1-26 prediction, this was the furthest out I have been. None of this really mattered however, I knew I didn't have much of a grasp on the whole thing and was cautious. I had fortunately built a good position backing the Netherlands pre song release and shortly after giving myself a lot of freedom to keep anything I had doubts on onside. I suppose the lesson here is 'know when you don't know'. Don't try and force a bet or get involved in everything.
Of course, there are many, many more that can go in both column, these are just the first that come to mind and can provide something to learn from.
What do you think of these predictions and what about your own best and worst predictions? Feel free to leave a comment below.