Cha Cha Cha vs Po Po Po
Before jumping into this I just want to get one thing clear, I don't believe either Finland or Austria will go on to win the contest. Sweden is a justified favourite in my view and despite potential hiccups (it's far from a done deal) I find it more likely Loreen actually performs better than expected on the televote that is the main area of concern.
The second problem is that Finland and Austria (and Ukraine for different reasons) are all relying on a televote win and jury 5th place or something similar to scrape their 500pts together. It's a flimsy, mathematically dubious path to victory but it is shared between the two. If either were to go on to win the contest, would it not be with the same 300~ t.v/ 180~ jury points and an underperforming Loreen? I'm sure it would, so let's examine whether this path is so much more unlikely for one than the other.
For clarity, I'll just list the many similarities that I'm taking for granted here:
Both fall into the fun/novelty categories.
Both are odds-on favourites in their respective semi finals.
Both will pick up more points from televoters than from jurors.
Both are from countries with a mixed track record. (Finland do have more bloc support but that's also more competitive potentially).
Both have the same issues around potential messiness live.
Televoting Potential
The biggest surface level difference between the two is found in the odds: Kaarijaa sits at 6.6, whilst Teya and Selena are floating around the 40s mark. The main reason for this is in the pre contest t.v. indicators. Not only has ‘Cha Cha Cha’ landslided a national final compared to the untested ‘Edgar’ but it currently leads in every fan metric. Finland is in 2nd place across the board whilst Austria floats between 3rd and 6th generally. It’s worse on paper for both on streaming and YouTube views (Italy as usual as well as Poland and Croatia are creating a fair bit of noise) but still advantage Kaarijaa there although his head start should not be forgotten. This all paints a pretty consistent picture that Kaarijaa is looking better with the televote, so far so good for the market pricing I suppose so now let's consider the jury side…
Finland have 99 problems
In a superbly neat result 66% of 99 of you o.g. followers over on twitter have this side of the equation favouring Teya and Selena. The room for the music industry/financial reward message to get out there is key of course. It's relatebale and yes jurors can be that surface level- Konstrakta likely the last to benefit slightly from this last year with the medical insurance for artists angle. There's also a dose of feminism in there which is what they and the delegation have been leading with on occasion in promoting this which I always like to be aware of. North Macedonia 2019 is the poster child for this inflating results but I also believe it netted Israel 2018 a few more points (pun intended). On to the actual criteria and vocal capacity should also be favouring Austria. As compositions I don't think there's much in it but ‘Edgar’ is probably more “mainstream” without the genre pivot. That's four ticks for Austria with Finland's main advantage coming in the form of being high in the odds. Being seen as a more credible challenger makes one a more credible challenger in a way. Austria would be hoping to close a lot of the gap before the semi finals take place, not just after based off streaming stats etc which does take us on to the dynamics…
An Easier Path?
Finland benefit from the more overtly good draw. If I was able to pick, I would rather perform on the Tuesday vs the Thursday as I feel the extra couple days exposure outweighs the recency bias of going closer to the final. Logistically and in terms of rehearsing going first does spread things out a bit better. Also, the ‘pimp slot’ is so called for a reason and ‘Cha Cha Cha’ makes for a fantastic closer. However, the gap in standard between the two semis is perhaps the biggest of all time. I'm not questioning a strong result for Finland but there's a lot competing for attention there. It's not inconceivable we come out of that semi final with Sweden and Norway ahead on metrics whilst Moldova and Israel also have very strong potential appeal. Whilst Kaarijaa might win the semi, dominating it looks unlikely and it's a proposition laced with more risk than semi 2. It can't be understated just how lacking in opposition semi 2 is looking at the moment and whilst something could impress live Austria could also go off even further odds on should their staging just be on par with the field. There are a lot of potential outcomes, but Austria being the only highlight of the show is distinctly possible. Honestly, everything considered Austria have the better launchpad and certainly a less risky one even if correlation to results or even public support in the final is pretty loose.
Conclusion
Oh wait, I haven't really cleared anything up have I? Just reeled off some ideas in favour of ‘Cha Cha Cha’ and some in favour of ‘Who The Hell is Edgar?’ but that's the point really, there's not that much in it. Finland offer slightly more security in having a contest environment live performance to consider but it is a beatable standard too so I wouldn't discount Teya and Selena winning the h2h even if I'll still go along with the market consensus for now but we're talking statistically insignificant margins. I currently have Austria 15pts or so ahead with jurors and Finland 30pts ahead with the televote. At the end of the day however, the returns on Austria just placing on your e/w bet are pretty much equal to your e/w returns if Finland were to win the whole thing and that is simply wrong.