Odds Review: Week Ending 27/02

Well, it’s been an eventful week to say the least and one were Eurovision has took a bit of a back seat in a lot of peoples thoughts but if there’s one thing instability causes it’s price swings. First off, Russia are no more in this year’s contest for obvious reasons- it may be a while until they are next seen.

Ukraine’s Eurovision chances have technically improved too with them now a narrow second favourite. The ‘smypathy vote’ theory which can be easily argued against of course doesn’t really cover full scale invasion so the move is understandable- Ukraine could send ‘Intention’ and be high in the odds ;) so with a top 10 contender sure. The main issue for anyone backing Ukraine is that the contest is still a couple of months out and as everyone knows that’s a hell of a long time and here’s a mini scenario shortlist that’s far from extensive; Russia retreat/peace, the war gets worse, Kalush replaced with females as they’re in the war effort, other countries get dragged in, Ukraine themselves do something distasteful and of course the main variable- withdrawal. A price in the 4s (when all bets stand) is extreme when the broadcaster or higher powers could pull out at any second.

As hinted at above, Bulgaria caused quite the storm going from 1000 to 10 within hours amid the whole Kostov replacement charade. Innocent fan prank or perhaps a financially motivated intention? Either way any three figure+ layer would have been left with a heart-attack. That and the Ukraine/Russia uncertainty have made the bookies run a mile.

In more ordinary business, the odds on favourites in Australia and Finland both won and sit around the 30 mark. Melfest semi 4 didn’t add any solid esc contenders for Sweden although Cornelia has retaken the betting lead from Anders Bagge leading to some shortening- the field elsewhere is fairly similar with the usual country out the spotlight drifting and only Montenegro making any real jump to semi-relevancy. Italy are still holding onto the top.

The coming week brings The Netherlands’ and Montenegro’s release as well as finals in Denmark, Serbia, Germany, Romania and France with the shortest country in the market at 55…