Odds Review #1:Week Ending 07/01
The first update of the year is always the longest and that's truer than ever this time around with us already having had three favourites before this first preview and what feels like a larger than usual number of artists and songs in place (9 artists, 3 confirmed revamps-pending entries). The early theme of the year is one of familiar names in the running for many countries and a large number of ‘fun’ entries. It’s quite common that the runner up from the previous year provides greater inspiration than the actual winner
The UK currently holds the favourites tag for the first time this millennium I imagine. Single figures is a little flattering to Olly Alexander and overestimates his name power significantly but as part of a total package the BBC are putting together he looks pretty serious and a big game is being talked. Votability and accessibility will be key along with the song of course.
Ukraine follow in the betting and my stance on them has certainly worsened since the blind preview months back. I maintain they have the biggest head start and a good amount of pedigree regardless of any lingering support/increased diaspora but their Vidbir lineup is a big dissapointment. It's never the most predictable or straightforward national final and unknown names (to us international followers) can often have something but Melovin vs Alyona Alyona is pretty weak. The market would tend to agree but another country's rise has also impacted perceptions which we'll get to in a while.
Sweden and Italy are level in the next spots and both are justified. I've been interested in Italy (as per) since betting opened and the SanRemo lineup is frankly ridiculously stacked. You can find my blind preview for that here. My stance on Sweden has changed slightly with the odds. At the opening 7s-8s this was lay territory but 14+ accounts quite well for the concerns over ambition and hosting.
Norway are next and were a country I was nibbling at before the artist and song reveals/leaks the last couple of days which has seen them come in. Unless something has changed in the Eurovision rules and we are yet to be told, Norway are much more likely to be nearly men again than take the title. Super Rob and Erica, Keiino and Gate are all in a top 10 discussion.
Finally we get to Israel who have been on a bit of a slide from favouritism. Unfortunately it wasn't the ditching of Rising Star and surprise return of Noa Kirell but more non song reasons. Should things remain similar and Israel make it to the Malmo stage in May it's important to remember the public can only support them. Jurors however would have both powers and the Ebu will certainly be less keen. Approaching back-able territory at 20+, but a strong artist and song is needed too.
Greece are next with the promising but risky selection of Marina Satti. ERT are showing ambition to right the wrongs of last year. Ambiguity around whether or not a song was in place and what has been submitted is the main concern. Lithuania are also in this area with The Roop in the running again. My expectations on them have cooled a little with 'Discoteque' underperforming expectations somewhat and what's looking a very congested field for hyper, fun, Kaarijaa inspired numbers. Iceland are shorter than usual and have also been attracting backing. Then again, if Dadi Freyr is to believed 1.01 would be value so pile in I guess. Something may be brewing, let's just hope it's not a silly boycott. Finland have also been floating from 20-30 following last year's success.
France follow with our first confirmed song and what they would deem dissapointing odds at this for an act of Slimane's reputation. Estonia have been bobbing up and down, mainly thanks to the unpronounceable effort from 5miinust who are vying for favouritism in the early Eesti Laul odds with Ollie. Another potential TV fav.
Elsewhere the rest of the pack is fairly typical with Armenia, Australia, Poland and Serbia leading the way there in typical starting positions. The internal selections of Joost Klein for the Netherlands, Silla Kapsis for Cyprus, Raiven for Slovenia and Mustii of Belgium haven't attracted much backing regularly above the 50s mark, where Spain have also drifted past following a dissapointing Benidorm Fest lineup.
The returning Luxembourg feature around 70 which seems fair. Finally, you have to scroll right to almost the bottom of the odds almost to find our other two confirmed entries from Albania and Czechia but the first wooden spoon in these reviews belongs to Malta who seem likely to send Matt Bulxukkcx and his Banana.
