Odds Review-Rehearsals Day 5: 04/05/22
Yay, finally some stuff to talk about following the start of second rehearsals, although you wouldn't know it from the shakiness of some of the run throughs.
Albania started the day but was not seen properly until later. It's a messy effort that hasn't come on much since FiK. Shouldn't have an issue in qualifying but shouldn't be threatening the left hand side once there either.
Latvia are next and crucially it's slick enough that it should be replicating it's respectable jury indicators. You can't really dress 2nd up as a good spot, but there's 3 incredibly dull efforts to follow giving Citi I Zeni's salad a palateable aftertaste. Still on my list to get through, though the best value is now in other markets on this.
Lithuania are the first of the dull entries and I don't believe any missing staging would elevate this more- it is what it is and hoping for a low bar to sneak through in 9th or 10th.
Switzerland have moved out in the betting with Mr. Bear not on his top game vocally. I'd say that's an Over-reaction but then he is probably needing 75%+ of his points from the jury so these issues are elevated. He's still in my 10 just about.
Slovenia is way out of its depth and is not threatening the final.
Outright favourites Ukraine are up next and they do an alright job with this although the last minute drags with little purpose. It eases itself back down from it's rousing clap section and main interaction point which is a bit of a flaw. Obviously, the live audience will boost this significantly and they have to. Watching such a long run in succession it's surprising how much Ukraine blends in, even for a sceptic. It's going to be different live on the night but I'm already feeling we shouldn't dismiss the importance of final running order for ‘Stefania’. Ukraine does not want to go early and allow the rest of the show to proceed ‘as normal’ and people to find actual favourite songs. They need to be late and remain the anticipated focus for as long as possible.
The song has always been the main issue for Bulgaria despite competent rock-101 presentation. Shouldn't be finishing last in the semi so that's something for them right?
The Netherlands is a welcome refresher at this point in the running order giving juries in particular something to appreciate. I'm not sensing much magic or emotion here and it's all a little blander than it could have been. It still feels like a top 4 here although the final could prove harder and a first half draw a disaster.
Moldova are another to have brought dissapointingly little to the party and you wonder if anything was dropped late on. Its a professional and charismatic performance but nowhere near as fun as it should be. Looking shaker.
Portugal performed later in the day due to positive covid testing leaving a bit of a cloud over this. I'm edging more towards the ‘boring’ side rather than the ‘captivating’ one with each viewing. Although I'm still open minded, I see it qualifying and coming 16th more than doing anything notable.
That Croatia have made a mess of their staging is obvious, but I still don't think we appreciate how much trouble this was in regardless with poor metrics and an awful draw. The presentation issues are just another nail in the coffin.
Denmark are next and another who offer very little despite an alright performance.
Without caring enough to actually research, it does baffle me why Austria would find an unknown, inexperienced and vocally iffy singer to front this. At least get one of the three. Apart from the vocals which are being covered up as much as possible, this looks every bit as awkward as feared and just doesn't work live, which most of us guessed when selected. Has solidified its position on the out pile following today.
To the benefit of keeping the word count up, Greece were next instead of Iceland. I hate to keep harping on but I'm not really seeing what some do with this. Everything is good, nothing particularly great and it's the sort of entry that probably does worse than it deserves in addition. I'll admit to having this covered at the 60,70+ the other day (like almost everything this year given the length and ease) but this isn't above expectation in any way, and is still in that 8-12 range more than anything. Of course, the limited options in the semi means this will be a minimum of 4th and for my money will be fighting with Norway for 2nd. In the outright market however, we're seeing the same self fulfilling dark horse talk we did with Bulgaria last year and will see the same instant drift once it gains zero traction live.
On to the outright market were we’ve seen some shuffling. The Netherlands and Greece both came in initially before heading back out again. Italy also took a bit of a hit early due to concerns over Sun-Gate affecting their jury credentials with Sweden the main beneficiaries. It’s some pretty deep rabbit hole stuff, but 2 ticks out seems fair- should the EBU be scrambling to get a jury darling over the line Italy may just have lost some appeal. Spain were also heading up until rumours along the lines of “historical staging” re-established themselves in 5th. Ukraine find themselves another few ticks clearer at the top despite performing worse over the polling I’ve been running on twitter and falling behind Greece in YouTube stats and the press poll.
Tomorrow is a big day for the outright with such a highly fancied 5, even without proper footage until Saturday. Italy are without BLANCO and should be the least affected by the LED issues whilst the photos we get from The UK may be the most anticipated with less certainty over their standard and use of their prop.
