Saturday 3rd February Finals Preview

We add 4 songs (probably - we'll get to that) to our confirmed entries list, and the average standard of the year should take a welcome boost.

Ukraine/Vidbir

Alyona Alyona and Jerry Heil are expected to dominate here with only a spicy question from Jamala on a small jury offering any hope to the rest of the field. I don’t believe they will be so foolish as to overlook what is by far and away the favourite and a genuine Eurovision contender. Lightyears ahead in the metrics, which are some of if not the best displayed by any Ukraine hopeful, there's not much to pick out from the rest of the field. Melovin is probably being overestimated due to his previous win and Yaktak has some domestic traction but at the end of the day they're playing for second.

Prediction : Alyona Alyona and Jerry Heil

Norway/MGP

Next up we have a country that have proven a tough nut to crack. I go with the odds, an underdog sneaks through, stick my neck out and the market gets it right, it's fortunate not much is on the line here. Gåte enter as favourites ahead of KEiiNO with my AI just keeping touch in third. I expect this will be Gåte given how momentum has shown itself to be very decisive here and the band do have a much stronger Usp than the two ‘fun’ entries (and Gothminister) chasing who are fishing in similar pools. Despite holding the lower end of the 60/40 split, what the juries do is key in determining the outcome. Their willingness to go with the flow last year in particular prevents me from tipping Margaret Berger, Miia or Dag Erik and Anne as surprise contenders. Instead, I expect they'll keep the status quo of having Gåte and KEiiNO at or near the top, although Super Rob and Erika will have to be punished if they haven't improved, ruling them out. I'm fairly happy with the top 2 and bottom 2, but anything could happen in the middle of the pack.

Prediction:

1. Gåte

2. KEiiNO

3. Margaret Berger

4. Super Rob and Erika

5. Dag Erik and Anne

6. Miia

7. Gothminister

8. Ingrid Jasmin

9. Annprincess

Spain/Benidorm Fest

If Spain's national final trumps Italy's in any way it's through making the winner even more apparent. Not content with a list of Qualifiers or a ranking even, you get the whole banana here of an entire point breakdown. St.Pedro is therefore a justified short price to win having received the all powerful juries push. A much improved Angy or an Almacor who can actually get in key are the longshot challengers with the likes of Jorge Gonzalez, Nebulossa and Sofia Coll set to get in each other's way. Maria Pelae looks on for a strong finish but I can't see how she leapfrog to the top.

The only way St. Pedro loses this is if the jury gap narrows and he finds himself low in the televote. Given the numbers voting, it's not an impossible scenario but anyone's guess as to who capitalises and given the split he can probably come 5th or even last in the televote and still win. 1.4 is a pretty good price given what we know.

Prediction:

1. St. Pedro

2. Angy Fernandez

3. Maria Pelae

4. Jorge Gonzalez

5. Nebulossa

6. Almacor

7. Sofia Coll

8. Miss Caffeina

Malta/MESC

Banana.

So there we have it, that's technically all 4 finals previewed for you and if anyone is seriously prioritising Malta tonight - check yourself. In seriousness, I haven't had much interest or incentive to look that one up so don't take the Matt Blxkxxk guess to the bank.

Norway's Gåte was the act mentioned who have threatened to join the whole boycott bandwagon, a scenario that leaves NRK, the runners up and the Ebu in a tough spot and would set a dangerous precedent heading into the rest of the season - all Scandis except our hosts carry an additional risk in trading therefore.

Financially, I don't have much on the line tonight in these four directly, although a good performance of ‘Teresa and Maria’ would not hurt…