What would have happened if ESC2020 went ahead?
It’s fair to say 2020 has been a year few will want to remember, but before we wave it goodbye and see in the new year, lets take one final look at the songs that we never got to see at Eurovision and guess how the final would have played out.
The ground rules: This article assumes that covid never existed. That means no cancelled pre-events, no singing ‘Fai Roumore’ from balcony’s, no virtual performances or travel restrictions and a packed Rotterdam Ahoy. It’s business as usual. Of course, a lot of assumptions are going to be made with regards to staging etc and this is just a bit of fun.
Here is escbetting’s 1-26:
26. France
After spending months as the bookmaker’s favourite for last place poor Tom Leeb limps home to claim the wooden spoon. The occasional 1 or 2 points from neighbouring countries save some blushes but it is an embarrassing night for the French followed by promises to return to a public selection in some form.
25. Belgium
After sneaking through the semi-final ahead of Cyprus and Australia, Belgium find the step-up in quality too much, losing the jury support that pushed them through.
24. Israel
Israel are just happy to make the final and are not too disapointed with their placing. Used to liven up proceedings in a run of dour songs, Eden Alene is well liked but unfortunately very few people’s favourite, picking up small points.
23. United Kingdom
More evidence mounts at the door of the BBC (that is likely ignored) that middle of the road does not cut it. James Newman gets a few points here and there but finds himself around 14/15th with too many juries whilst a dull staging results in very few televote points.
22. Spain
Spain’s average finish position over the last five years is 23rd, so in some ways this is an achievement of sorts. It’s sung and performed well enough but is far too flat to capture anyone’s attention.
21. Netherlands
Jeangru delivers an impressive and professional performance that manages to score quite well with the juries. Unfortunately, his position of 23rd in the running order proves little help as he is surrounded by big hitters, and can only add single figures from the televote.
20. Armenia
Like always, Armenia deliver a dark and attitude filled stageshow which sees them through to the final after being surrounded by dross in the semi. Little support remains beyond the usual countries.
19. Moldova
A poor semi final draw both in terms of position and allies is overcome by a professional performance and a few suspect Greek jury points. In the final, support is found in the usual places and Moldova are relatively satisfied to avoid the bottom spots.
18. Serbia
To the fandom’s dismay, Hurricane’s performance proves to be one of the less stable and the staging only accentuates some of the ‘cheapness’ of the song. A narrow qualifier, Serbia don’t suffer too much of a drop in the final.
17. Romania
After gradually losing faith in Romania following the staging and performance likewise coming across as a ‘worse Bulgaria’, no one is too surprised to see Romania down in 17th. The semi final results reveal Roxen was never in danger of an nq, but despite their recent record, the Romanian delegation are left feeling disappointed.
16. Georgia
The dark horse tag given to Georgia by some is proven to be an exageration, with Tornike unable to build a wide enough support base. The result is still an excellent one given the expectations and remains many people’s favourite.
15. Greece
Giving Fokas Evangelinos more opportunity to use his immagination with a super powers theme, poor Stefania ends up suspended in the air “levitating” (totally not just dangling from a wire) for much of the performance. Comfortably mid table throughout the voting sequence, Greece are quietly pleased with their result.
14. Sweden
Sweden suffer their worst result in years but still achieve a position many countries would be thrilled with. Christer Bjorkman and the Swedish delegation begin to work on plans to prevent such shame ever happening again by further strengthening producer power at Melodifestivalen.
13. Denmark
Ben and Tan become a popular “dark horse” pick with the catchy ‘Say Yes’ but do not score as well as hoped with juries. A low top ten televote helps to squeze the Danes onto the left hand side of the scoreboard.
12. Germany
Ben Dalic does his best but is the weak link in an otherwise strong performance. It’s not his fault, for a selection process designed specifically to match song and singer, the feeling of a square peg in a round hole certainly comes across. Juries appreciate the chartworthy song from Symphonix and an average televote score combines for a decent showing.
11. Czech Republic
Managing to make it to the contest without being remixed another 5 times, ‘Kemama’ proves fairly divisive, although this does not hurt it’s scoring. For everyone seeing this as just loud and annoying, there’s another juror appreciating the variety and modernity of this, and a televoter just having a good time to a catchy song. After qualifying to the surprise of a few, Benny Cristo just misses the top 10 disappointing those with long odds.
10. Ukraine
Ukraine are never considered in any danger of a non qualification and in the end manage to just sneak their way into a top 10 spot. Many don’t appreciate Go_A’s offering but there is an audience for it which comes out and votes whilst juries show it enough respect on the whole.
9. Switzerland
Switzerland remains well liked within the fandom, but slowly drifts further and further as the difference between a good song and a competitive song begin to dawn. A strong jury score is followed by a respectable televote and Switzerland are satisfied with another top 10 finish.
8. Malta
Malta again bring out the kitchen sink with pyro and a big production, but yet again the whole thing doesn’t come across as well as intended. Destiny delivers the vocals ensuring Malta do as well as ever with the juries, ensuring a top 10 despite a disappointing televote.
7. Iceland
A big jump in points then takes us to Iceland. Although still a fan favourite and receiving much media attention, Iceland more and more is seen as something of a hipster’s choice. Low scores in the East hold them back and an overall strong televote is still way below the 300+ some had predicted. ‘Think about Things’ joins the long list of underperforming Icelandic fan favourites, but enjoys post-contest success.
6. Azerbaijan
Azerbaijan take the ancient Egypt theme and run with it, making them one of the more memorable acts of the evening. The songs shortcomings and the level of kitsch is off-putting to a few juries but Azerbaijan always look a comfortable top 10, and a good televote ensures a strong finish.
5. Russia
It is a case of Little and Big for LittleBig who fair poorly with the juries but acheive a top 3 score with the televote, propelled mainly by votes from those who already know the band.
4. Italy
Italy yet again bring a touch of class to proceedings and prove one of the high points of the evening. Everything about Diodato’s performance screams professionalism which propels him into a jury favourite. A strong televote score ensures a good night for the Italians who narrowly miss out on a podium spot.
3. Norway
Norway continue to fly under the radar and are nowhere near the top 5 of the betting by the day of the final, with youtube views, streaming numbers and media attention much lower. Ulrikke appeals to those looking for their “typical eurovision ballad”, with an engaging singer and big pyro moment. Think the likes of ‘Undo’ from Sanna Nielsen or even a Poland 2016 demographic (which, again, was not just the Polish). There’s a market for a big emotional ballad and Norway score well with both the juries and the televote.
2. Bulgaria
As to be expected, 2nd and 1st were the two I spent the most time debating with myself. Bulgaria professionally re-create their music video (minus Victoria’s facial injuries) and top the jury vote, edging out Italy with this metric. After the announcement of many big televote scores, there is visible concern amongst the delegation there may not be as many as hoped left and so it turns out. The phrase “trying too hard” applies to the televote, who opt for the more fun entries, with ‘tears getting sober’ just lacking that little bit of audience connection on the first listen.
1. Lithuania
Lithuania’s jury vote leaves them in no mans land, 50+ ahead of Russia and Iceland but another 50+ behind Bulgaria and Italy. They seem best placed for a late overtake and a score in the region of 300 points allows them to do that. The Roops’ infectious number makes them the most consistent scorer Europe wide and secure’s Lithuania’s first ever win with a very narrow margin over Bulgaria.
What are your thoughts on this prediction (or whatever this is)? Who do you feel would have won the contest? Feel free to leave a comment below and have a great 2021!