San Remo 2022 Preview
San Remo is a bit of a potshot. As much as I’d like to brag on last year's genius preview ;)- there's more guesswork here than with most. Whilst we likewise just get a list of names and song titles for Melodifestivalen (preview for that coming next week) we have much more to go on with not just the running order but the more transparent producer intentions. The high quality and absence of real staging are other factors at play too. Nevertheless, we can still have a run through the frontrunners…
Mahmood e Blanco - ‘Brividi’
Mahmood enters this year as favourite following his more unexpected 2019 victory. He's got a high status and good will at the festival this time around and in general Italy does tend to have something in a rap or featured rap high up. Blanco brings a bit more of the same. It’s not exactly a Michelin/Fedez type of duet but the two should compliment each other well and boost what is expected to be a strong public vote higher. The sum of their parts is already strong, if they can become more than that they will be in a very good position.
Emma - ‘Ogni volta è così’
2012 winner and 2014 representative Emma Marrone is another familiar name to Eurovision fans as well as a big one domestically although the hits have not been as frequent or as big in recent years with a bit of career diversification. Since Emma’s victory female soloists have won 1/9 editions and most stats are pretty poor, I’d suggest an unofficial no more than one in the top 3 rule.
A decade on can Emma claim a second San Remo victory?
Elisa - ‘O Forse Sei Tu’
Oh, well the odds seem to think not. Elisa perhaps pips everyone in the field for name recognition but like Emma is hardly prolific now. That ‘like Emma’ may be the biggest problem both these have and I can't see a world in which both are up there in the scoring, there's simply too much crossover. Personally, I'd assume Elisa is slightly more towards ‘participating’ than genuinely competing out of the two.
Sangiovanni - ‘Farfale’
Scrolling through some of the information given on the songs, in a sea of ‘love’ and ‘emotional’ we have “an uptempo song that will make people happy. The song talks about going back to normal, about being in a good relationship and being able to take a breath of fresh air”. This sounds like the type of entry that could stand out and also what some of journalists previewing often lean towards. The metrics in general are positive here.
Achille Lauro - ‘Domenica’
Achille is becoming a regular at San Remo competing in 2019, 2020 and guest featuring heavily last year. It's certainly helped him to gain recognition amongst the Esc crowd but to be brutally honest I don't see the hype and I'm not sure the Italian public do either, at least not enough to catapult him into the top places. Without a significant step up over his other SR entries, 8th or 9th place may be his ceiling. There's also the chance of fatigue with ‘him again’ and some of his glam stylings might be too Maneskin too soon.
Noemi - ‘Ti Amo Non Lo So Dire’
I wasn't the biggest fan of Noemi’s entry last year and I'm expecting something similar. Perfectly fine, competent, performed well but just lacking any real firepower in a tough field. I'm not sure how she betters Emma or Erisa so she's not one I'm considering.
Irama - ‘Ovunque Sarai’
Arguably the most current of the acts, Irama was able to achieve a strong 5th place last year despite relying on a rehearsal tape for covid reasons. On a bit of a roll and is not one to rule out. As a drawback, his entry is described as ‘simple’ so perhaps some of the songwriting flair usually found and which helped ‘La Genesi’ last year is toned down. Will also probably get a mixed Eurovision fan reaction regardless with bonus fan hate points if he rocks up with corn rows or something so may be necessary to ignore the noise.
Fabrizio Moro - ‘Sei Tu’
Meta/Moro worked in 2018 because it brought the former's writing and jury credibility and the latter’s charisma and public appeal. Separately, Meta has underperformed on the public vote and I have a feeling Fabrizio has brought something a little dull and conventional. In the race only if ‘Sei Tu’ is truly emotional.
Rkomi - ‘Insuperabile’
I quite like this guys back catalogue and we've been promised a bit of a mix of genres which is clearly a high risk approach. Not too dissimilar to Irama and they have collaborated. May be a step too far to win just yet with the field heavily stacked with his typical style.
Michele Bravi - ‘Inverno Dei Fiori’
Love ballad incoming which is good to hear as I feel it suits Michele better. Achieved a 4th place finish in 2017 (probably helped by his last spot in the running order on finals night) but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him around that mark again in this lineup.
Ana Mena - ‘Duecentomila Ore’
I believe this is the first act we've come to that has stated they won't take the Eurovision ticket but it's hard to see that becoming relevant much. There's a big lack in young women in the field but that usp may not help her much in terms of scoring. Being non-Italian also has a small negative impact if anything. Likely something a bit different to the rest, but not a threat.
Aka7even - ‘Perfetta Cosi’
Just in case Rai left us in any doubt San Remo is ‘down with the kids’ we have Aka7even. I'm going to sound twice or three times my age now but baring the only real hit ‘Loca’ the rest of what I could find sound indistinguishable. Hard to see him getting past Mahmood and Irama and Rkomi and Achille Lauro and… well you get the picture. Something slightly different to usual has been promised which is a positive but I’d still expect this to be more towards the bottom of the field.
Giusy Ferreri - ‘Miele’
Giusy has probably missed the boat if she was to ever win San Remo, I tend to enjoy her songs but the sound and competition has kind of moved on a little and I’m not sure she can put up a fight against some of the other names and genres in this edition.
Le Vibrazioni - ‘Tantissimo’
Juries could enjoy, the televote will be damaging. Honestly there’s not much to say here. Lack the profile or following to contend if they did end up in the top 3.
La Rappresentante di Lista - ‘Ciao Ciao’
Get a mention here as they were actually one of the more fancied acts heading into last year. The odds this time around are much more realistic for a group that are going to struggle once again against pretty much every bigger name much like Le Vibrazioni.
The rest of the pack is unlikely to turn up too much of a surprise and if it does I wouldn't be able to tell you who. Ranieri and Morandi are the traditional legends dropping by but won’t be competitive, and we’re going back to Le Vib and La Rapp territory of ‘simply not well known enough’ for the rest of the pack including the Giovanni entrants.
So early prediction time- Mahmood e Blanco are right at home in the modern San Remo and should probably be the best example of the genre. Duets tend to do quite well here and the interplay between the two can give an edge and just shake up a performance more in a long night. Worthy favourites. I’ll go for Sangiovanni out of the solo guys- I get the sense he’s going to be a breathe of fresh air slightly. Last spot is difficult and I have it narrowed between Michele Bravi and Emma. I’m not thrilled with it but Emma gets the pick. Although the concerns of her and Elisa getting in each others way remain, the young guys should also be taking votes of each other leaving a bit of a door open to an act I’d expect the juries to respect.
Podium prediction:
Mahmood e Blanco
Sangiovanni
Emma
That’s all for now and the first time we’ll hear anything more really (Facebook self leaks excluded) will be when the show starts. Be sure to follow @escbetting on twitter where I’ll be live tweeting the first showing of the songs on and finals night which takes place on Saturday the 5th.