Eurovision 2022: A First Preview
I don't really have too much of an overview on the year. The quality is alright, the field is an OK mix and in general the countries expected to do well back in September still are now and most of those who typically struggle will continue to. There’s a couple of exceptions either side but overall, a pretty average year in my opinion so let's just get on with this…
Ukraine
What to do with Ukraine? Of course, this is only favourite based of the politics of the war and would otherwise be 30+ at a minimum (so assumedly Alina Pash would have been 1.2 or something now had they stuck with her).
At this price, there's a heavy weighting on the 'maximum sympathy' scenario for lack of a better term with a 300-350 televote and a 200 ish jury score where they also make a statement rather than judge the merits of 'Stefania'. In reality, we're going to see something between this and the 'business as usual' outcome. Hopefully the situation is better in a month anyway but even if the war is still in the same place there's the possibility it becomes the status quo, rather than something shocking, causing a lower than expected surge in support, at least not to those record breaking levels.
The main question is will Ukraine already be out of the race by the time said televote support is announced and it comes down to how far juries play along too. Something the Bosnia 93’ comparisons have missed is that they didn’t have a strong group of political/cultural allies that Ukraine do. Granted, the likes of Lithuania, Poland and Georgia were always going to be the biggest source of jury points but they’re liable to make those 10s and 12s now as an F.U. to mother Russia that can't be given through blanking them. I think therefore we will see some increase on what ‘Stefania’ would have received from juries but, and here’s where it falls apart for Ukraine, it probably won’t be enough. The 75% of countries who would have blanked this, those not on Nato’s Eastern front are not going to suddenly change their 18th place ranking let’s say into a top 3 en masse. A couple places higher, one sympathetic juror out of 5 sure, but not enough. Overall a nice round 100 jury pts would be realistic.
Eurojury and the scandi preview shows will be more important than ever this year in assessing how much of a boost is in play and I suspect its not going to be a score befitting a 2.5 favourite, no matter what televote comes into it.
Anyway, I'm not going to sit here and say Ukraine can't win right now just that I highly doubt it which is criticism enough of a 2.5 favourite. Too many will be ahead on the jury and at least 1, possibly more will hold on overall. They look on for a very good finish nonetheless.
Italy
Italy is probably the best package in the field but it's one of those that is vulnerable. It's an Aram Mp3 waiting to be usurped by dark horses and circumstance or a Duncan Laurence that always just has enough to keep it's nose in front rather than a Mans Zelmerlow or Loreen. For football fans, it's this season's Real Madrid looking at Atletico and Barca having more problems than them and some outsiders just lacking the gas. It's the only song I'm comfortable assigning a 500+ points tag to and the only thing that looks solidly top 4 in both categories. A later draw would have been better of course but there's something to be said for being the first challenger (which it likely will be in 9th) of the night too. Perhaps it sets a high bar nothing else quite reaches. The duet aspect is what makes this so unique in the field with Mahmood and Blanco playing of each other so well. It's a classy performance of a classy song. Whilst a back to back winner would be 'different' in itself there is the worry that viewers of today want to see something else every year and even if this is a world away from Maneskin, a vote for Italy is still a vote for the same hosts next year. 'Brand Italy' has been more successful than any other however so there may not be much of a net effect.
Sweden
I fully understand Sweden as a contender: it's a very healthy green from when it became clear this would win Melodifestivalen and its something I respect, but I have to say the support for this is extreme. My main disagreement over this is that Cornelia isn't some re-imagining of Sweden at Eurovision. This is still well within the mould of a typical Esc performance for me- good, likeable but hardly a re-invention of the wheel with going barefoot one of the oldest tropes there is whilst there's still the light show we've come to expect from any svt staging. I'm not saying this to rag on Sweden as every country follows an appropriate playbook to some extent but the level of kudos being given just for not sending a guy with a pop song and dance routine is silly. Is this so different to 'Undo' as a classic Eurovision ballad or to John Lundvik who was similarly expected (also by myself in fairness) to challenge in Tel Aviv by bringing a warmth and charisma not seen recently by Sweden?
Anyway, I'm in agreement with the odds in having this in 3rd for now so that rant wasn't even that necessary, I'm just unconvinced this has the real top tier scoring power to go the distance, a bit like Ukraine. The slightly croaky vocals need work if this hopes to top the jury vote whilst I have a hard time seeing it much above the 200pt mark on the televote. 'Default winner'? Possibly, convincingly which some are going for looks optimistic. I'm looking around the 450 pts range for this. Despite that being a great score good for a top 4 spot, that may also be the ceiling.
Just before we move on, it's interesting that 3 of the most successful Eurovision countries are our top 3 in the odds. Obviously, it's no surprise to see any of them that high but worth considering if they are so far ahead of the pack or if we're collectively over-looking something in going for the familiar. Just a thought.
From here it gets more debatable and you could probably ask 10 different people for their pick ignoring the top 3 and get a different answer.
The UK
It is a bit of a surprise that ‘SpaceMan’ is staying closest to that top 3 and stands in contrast to the above where I mention country’s previous success having an influence. Perhaps there's an opposite effect of over-rating the first decent thing sent since 2017. I like Sam, I like the song, there's some potential but this is too short. The 1.7, 1.8 or so about top 10 speaks more on its chances. Even if its a false price, there's probably more downwards movement than upwards for now. Its the type of mainstream, radio friendly entry to excel in Eurojury and the like, there's room for it's streaming stats and fan polls to grow (which aren't spectacular yet) and British money is probably helping somewhat already and can continue to do so.
Greece
'Die Together' could come alive on stage for Greece but could also slip through the cracks. I've said it before but these female ballads are very on the night regarding what connects and what doesn't. It's close to being very good, but just comes up a little short towards the back end of the song and Amanda’s live performance of this and what Fokas has up his sleeve is one of the harder to guess. Not one I'm expecting to challenge.
Poland
Poland looks more of a guarantee for points but having seen Ochman's live performance he by default has less chance to win. Whilst that could improve, the song is still lacking for me and more of a problem than his presence. A higher, narrower but more limited range than The UK or Greece I'd say and probably the 'sensible' tip for 4th. Poland's diaspora always helps but is more on the selective side and this fortunately is up their alley which coupled with a fair jury score will see them safely top 10 at a minimum.
Spain
Channel really does fill a gap in the year and we know they'll bring a professional performance. That BenidormFest televote is still problematic and there does feel a realistic limit on this. 40+ is a good saver price although this is hurt more than any other big 5 through skipping it's semi. Going back to the obvious Fuego comparison, everything fell right for Eleni and she was still unable to cross the line so it's hard to tip this too hard. Unlike others I don't have an issue with the song itself although Channel and The performance are rightly taking more plaudits. Still more 6-10 than 1-5 for me.
Norway
I'm going to speed up this preview by dismissing Subwoolfer without too much concern. Juries won't hate it but it's nowhere close to being their winner and I’m not even certain televoters will love it rather than just like it. I could be wrong with this statement but there’s something about it that feels too forced and they need to go bigger with the show in Turin than what we saw at MGP regardless.
The Netherlands
‘De Diepte’ really is a slice of quality but I'm a bit worried for the televote specifically. There may be a lack of immediacy with it and I've just got a small feeling this will do worse than it deserves. I could also picture it drawing the short straw and going early if say Sweden and Greece ended up in the same half. I get the sense juries will be respectful rather than have this as a top 3 which already caps it. Not to be completely wrote off as there is a little of that unquantifiable ‘magic’ that Greece or Poland might lack but I don’t think we can assume this is a safe top 10 at this stage.
Australia
‘Not The Same’ needs massive improvements and changes from the live performance to come back into the discussion. Even done perfectly the televote will still be a challenge especially with Australia's vote drag. The song is winner-quality, its everything else holding it back, should they correct all the little issues it will trade shorter than the 70+ now, but I don’t think there’s any real hope of this winning overall.
With that market top 10 covered I'll give shout outs to some 'dark horse' fancies although they generally follow straight on in the odds pretty much.
Portugal
I’m still undecided if ‘Saudade, Saudade’ is really mesmeric or a snooze-fest which kind of sums uphow this is a sink or swim effort. There's a great atmosphere and they know how to elevate this stuff. *Should* it connect, it can score well on both sides too which increases the potential. FdC results do tend to be less decisive than this absolute walk home- whether that means it’s to be ignored or a point of confidence is again up in the air and I’m being very open minded with this one.
France
France is a big price in triple figures with a very distinctive entry and a performance that should be stronger on the bigger stage. Of course, juries are rightly not expected to go for something so messy which doesn’t have much relevance to the modern music scene although the juries at the French selection did encouragingly overlook more typical bait. Looking at this pile of entries in front of me, ‘Fulenn’ actually looks like one of the more likely to attract any significant televote support Europe wide.
Cyprus
This feels somewhat overlooked also in terms of the market focusing on previous trends. Like 2018 they're sending something average within it's genre but likeable, distincitve and fitting for them. It's 'Fuego' if Fuego was a Greek midtempo summer song and not Latin infused pop. Just like then, the live performance remains unknown but if they can capture the atmosphere a top 10 is achievable with not too much to rival it in the field. It’s more a both than an either/or for which one the combined Greek/Cypriot diasporas will go for but this is more along the usual lines.
Serbia
‘In Corpore Sano’ is not one I enjoy but it's damn distinctive and it's one were if you do like it, it's probably your favourite. There's often a lot of noise with Serbia so it's not the easiest country to read the stats on but there does appear to be indicators of strong support here, even from outside the hardcore fandom even if it's still early days. The diaspora and region look on board with this too so that's a healthy boost for them too. Non Balkan juries are far too likely to avoid like the plague but if there’s an entry to cause an (irrational) panic move in the win market a la Ukraine in rehearsals and Finland in play last year this is the one. Given how the rest of the former Yugoslavia looks to be wiped out in the semis, you can’t discount for a top 10.
Finally, shout out to the Czech Republic who have one of the strongest entries I remember heading to 1000-1. Of course, it's not winning so you can make a case it's still under-priced but when you look at what's shorter it seems harsh, as is the 15-1 on top 10 compared with Austria’s odds as a direct rival.
So that brings us to Prediction time and my first top 10 of the year:
1. Italy
2. Ukraine
3. Sweden
4. France
5. Poland
6. Greece
7. Serbia
8. Spain
9. Norway
10. UK
That's my current guess on each country's position and not necessarily a ranking of their likelihood to win. Italy is the only thing I'm comfortable in having 1st for now, but that could change down the line. Ukraine in second feels a little high if anything, and I could easily flip it with Sweden though neither convince fully. Portugal, Cyprus and the Netherlands are on my list to break into the top 10 and would complete the lefthand side. It's a year to be open minded, particularly with the entries currently around 7th-13th in the odds, you can’t say there will be a ‘shock’ winner at this stage but the year does have some of the hallmarks of one where a lot of expectations flip in rehearsals.