Melodifestivalen ‘Semi Final 5’ Preview

The headline early change to this year's MF following Christer Bjorkman's departure was the rejigging and rebranding of Andra Chansen. Instead of 4 duels of 2, we now have two mini heats sending two songs through each. Let's take a look at them:

Group 1

Group one provides the generally safe choice of Anna Bergendahl and the generally hopeless one of Danne Strahad. I don't have anything interesting to say here, Anna should be 1st, Danne should be last. The second spot is between Alvaro Estrella and Tone Sekelius and I'm fairly happy in going with ‘Suave’ to make it through. He has already got the better of Tone in semi 2 where his votes came from the younger demographics in the breakdown compared to Tone’s slight skew old and to the televote. It’s an important distinction to make given the presence of Bergendahl and sure Danne too also skewing old. His consistency was also more impressive, only dropping low in the televote. He’s also won his last two ac duels so has a bit of a track record and this is (slightly) stronger- whether Sweden have had enough of his schtick is a fair point. Tone has the better post semi stats but has always been a bit of a wildcard in terms of their fanbase vs mainstream appeal so this isn’t too much of a surprise- particularly the YouTube domination. I think it’s the competitive stats we need to focus more on to get an accurate picture and that’s where Alvaro looks the pick. I’d be disappointed to be wrong on this.

Verdict: Anna Bergendahl, Alvaro Estrella

Group 2

This is considered the more open group of the two and it's true everyone does have a case here. Lisa is unfortunate to be in this position whilst Lillasyster stand out the most and have less of an anti vote than in the h2h format but they're not my picks. Despite not having a full breakdown, Theoz has already been tested you suspect from outside his main demographic due to the app failure in semi 1. If he wins with the kiddy voting as expected he should also be bolstering that well amongst the older demographics as a safer and more votable package. Having the only (competitive) Swedish entry of the night may also be a boost. Cazzi is my pick for second for similar reasons- I don't think there's a demographic split like there is for the Lillasyster and Lisa and consistent points may be the better route through this new format. I'm less confident in her than Theoz but she slots in second if I force myself to pick.

Verdict: Theoz, Cazzi Opeia