Sweden- Melodifestivalen Semi 4 Preview
Last week's preview continued the theme for this year with both Direkt qualifiers called and one of the two Andra Chansen places landed. Elisa's last place finish (backed at 5s and 7s) was the standout however. There's nothing quite as juicy in the odds this week-this semi is more about setting up the scene for the final.
Onto the songs:
Tess Merkel – “Good Life”
Tess brings that old school Melfest sound the best this week and will almost certainly be heading to Andra Chansen. This is a predictable but good show opener. Her name recognition as part of Alcazar will also help her have an edge over the lesser known names in this semi.
Lovad – “Allting är precis likadant”
Sweden just doesn't like this kind of entry. It's slow, it's subtle, it's a bit more experimental- the wrong mix to do well here. As much as being an actual disadvantage, going second sends out the message to viewers that this is not strong. The styling is also uninspiring here. There are two other fairly week entries in this semi, but this should be the favourite for last.
Efraim Leo – “Best of Me”
In contrast to the previous entry, this one is not my thing at all but the sort of unchallenging, radio friendly pop that Melfest audiences reward. 4th or 5th.
The Mamas – “In the Middle”
Uplifting, tried and tested act, potential sympathy votes, knack to appeal to all demographics, there is no chance this doesn't sail through in this field. The song is nothing new, but The Mama's are not giving up their ticket to Rotterdam without a fight.
Sannex – “All Inclusive”
Not a particularly strong effort and following The Mama's is a bit awkward. Sannex still bring a bit of fun and are again one that can appeal to a lot of demographics. This is the other 4th/5 for me and will battle it out with Ephraim Leo for the final Andra Chansen spot.
Clara Klingenström – “Behöver inte dig idag”
It seems Svt just didn't bother with staging this one. There's a good melody here and Clara is more vote able than Lovad but she's going to struggle here. Should dodge last but I can't see any way this gets to A.C. Might be worth a break even saver bet for last given the odds discrepancies between sites.
Eric Saade – “Every Minute”
The song is OK but this is all about the name, the hype and the staging. This obviously goes through to the final and could be a threat to win it all. This may be a bit more of acquired taste demographically compared to The Mamas but fans of this and Eric will vote hard.
First and second are a done deal, although the order might not be certain-The Mama's have an uncanny ability to pick up votes from all demographics. Eric Saade has a chartable song, stage-show, pimp slot and name recognition. There's no upset here.
Tess should be a lock for Andra Chansen and the value is here rather than in the Direkt markets. She's not coming top 2 or bottom 3 in this field. That other Andra Chansen spot goes to Ephraim Leo. I feel he should get those important young girl votes and Sweden may just have had enough novelty by now that Sannex's effort falls a bit flat.
The battle for last center’s (of course) on the slower, solo female, Swedish language numbers. Lovad is a worthy favourite here with the coffin slot draw, slower pace and bland styling. Lovad opened a bigger price but evens is still not bad despite Clara also not looking strong.
The Mamas
Eric Saade
Tess Merkel
Ephraim Leo
Sannex
Clara Klingenstrom
Lovad
As for the outrights, I don't think I'm saying anything controversial in that the battle for the win is a 4 horse race. It will start to become clearer in the coming weeks once all entries are released on YouTube, Spotify etc but for now I find it hard to see why Tusse is the favourite of the four. Dotter, The Mama's and Eric all have stronger cases and have built up some sort of narrative at Melodifestivalen (building up to a win, sympathy/likeability, comeback) whereas Tusse ‘only’ has his Idol background. It shows he can gain public support, but it's incredibly rare to get a debutant winner here.