Retturndam: Who Wins and Who Loses
Of course, it’s hard to call any artist who missed out on participating in Rotterdam a “winner”, there are some however who might feel they can perhaps find a stronger song or those who already made a strong attempt and now could struggle to reach the same heights.
A separate list could be drawn up on which countries and delegations can expect to fare better or worse but this is more obvious. Sweden clearly believe they can find a more competitive entry than “Move” whilst the likes of Lithuania will feel like it’s an opportunity missed, even if they do end up sending the same acts themselves.
With that cleared up, let’s take a look at all the confirmed returning artists who have already been selected and whether we expect them to come back stronger or weaker.
Australia- Montaigne
One of many tricky ones to call, but I will commit one way or the other and not play it safe throughout this article. It would have been interesting to see what Australia could Have done with “Don’t Break Me”. The song isn’t bad but on national final form would have struggled to qualify. The voteability of Montaigne and the concept gave me concerns that remain. In fact the strongest part of the package we saw in my opinion was the song, but despite that, I am sure the delegation will support her in the songwriting process to bring a stronger entry overall.
Verdict: Winner
Austria- Vincent Bueno
Poor Vincent was probably the least inspiring internal selection whilst ‘Alive’ was met with a collective shrug. Vincent just doesn’t come across as a natural performer but given the fact Alive’s chances of qualifying were pretty much dead, I have to expect something at least somewhat more competitive this time around.
Verdict: Winner
Azerbaijan- Efendi
Azerbaijan’s ‘Cleopatra’ presents one of the stronger entries in this list and was genuine top 10 potential so presents a higher standard to reach. ‘Cleopatra’ always felt capped however, whilst Efendi is (yet again) one of the stronger internally selected artists. The assumption that Azerbaijan have stopped caring is overly simplistic and has led to some generous odds pre song release on a country which always brings something of note. I expect to see Efendi back around the top 10 in 2021 and if with something more “normal”, perhaps higher.
Verdict: Winner
Belgium- Hooverphonic
An easy one here, Hooverphonic’s confirmation for 2020 was seen as a strong selection and Belgium was immediately installed as one of the favourites. Whilst that was an overreaction to a band whose best days appear behind them, they are capable of much better than ‘release me’, which faced a battle to escape the semi final.
Verdict: Winner
Bulgaria- Victoria
The most interesting country for this question in my opinion is Bulgaria. A country highly fancied both pre and post song reveal, Bulgaria were always going to perform well in 2020. That said, I know I am not alone in feeling that ‘Tears Getting Sober’ isn’t impossible to top- or even improbable. Initial reaction wasn’t that of a winner, although opinions did improve sending them favourite. Arguably, Bulgaria were in the position of default winner as the most likely to score big in both the jury and televote. You have to imagine however that competition in 2021 may be stiffer and for that reason, at least on the jury front, and Bulgaria can rightly feel that this was an opportunity missed.
Verdict: Loser
Czech Republic- Benny Cristo
‘Kemama’ was at its strongest in its original form so maybe time is something Benny could do without. With over a year to prepare from when he was confirmed who knows how overproduced his entry will be? Seriously though, Benny could have been a bit of a surprise package, that something slightly different and lively and could be again. There’s not much in it, but I think he realised his mistake with the revamp and will be better prepared this time around.
Verdict: Winner
Georgia- Tornike Kipiani
A clear one again. Tornike was considered one of the weaker participants and clips from his song recording were met with laughter and sighs. ‘Take Me As I Am’ was a surprisingly strong entry all things considered and stood a fair chance at making the Saturday show. Predictions for much higher than that were optimistic but it is still hard to see Tornike bringing something even stronger this time around.
Verdict: Loser
Greece- Stefania
‘Superg!rl’ was a solid mid table effort from Stefania and the “Dream Team” of Kontopoulos, Fokas et al and something on a similar level is likely again in my opinion. Greece may benefit from Stefania growing over the last year and may have some extra maturity not to look out of her depth.
Verdict: Winner
Iceland- Dadi og Gagnamanid
The last artist to confirm their return (at the time of writing) is probably the one that fans are most excited about yet. Dadi Freya had a sizeable level of support and expectations for Iceland will be raised here, and likely will likely enter the market as an early favourite, but is that warranted? I’ll get it out of the way here that I believe Iceland had a very, very slim chance of winning the contest, and should have not been near the top of the betting. Not only would the jury vote have been a concern but also the potential vote split with Russia and Lithuania. Popularity among fans and hype led to the high predictions for Iceland. The problem this time around is that it will be much harder to generate that support and momentum that saw it rise in the odds. Returns are never easy but even more so for something that falls onto the “novelty” side of things as, obviously, it becomes less novel. ‘Think About Things’ can be equalled or topped, but the momentum of last year may be harder to gain. The one thing in Iceland’s favour this time around is the (as yet) non confirmation of Little Big, and a Lithuania also facing the challenge of matching “On Fire”, songs that would have took votes away.
Verdict: Loser
Israel- Eden Alene
Israel is the country here with the most to go on following their song releases. Last year, Israel had a few good songs to pick from in Eden’s national final but all were to a similar borderline qualifier standard. The signs are never good when a country extends its song search and so it has proved for Eden, with a distinctly more middle of the road selection to choose from. “Ue La La” is the only entry with any promise and even then it’s splitting hairs on whether this is any better than last year’s attempt.
Verdict: Loser
Latvia- Samanta Tina
Grew on me but it was a bonkers attempt that was unlikely to qualify. It’s good to see LTV who don’t have much of a recent history internally selecting giving Samanta another chance and whilst something more boring and conventional is inevitable, that something might have more of a chance of qualifying.
Verdict: Winner
Malta- Destiny
Like Michaela in 2019, Destiny to me doesn’t come across as comfortable perfoming a higher energy son and I was personally surprised their song choice was so uptempo. Malta are one to watch if they do bring that gospel infused big ballad this time around as a vocal showcase. That, with less of a kitchen sink stage-show that they are prone to, could help them challenge higher up. Were probably looking for a lower top 10 at best last time around but there’s potential here to score much better than that.
Verdict: Winner
Moldova- Natalia Gordienko
‘Prison’ was far from a fan favourite but wasn’t a bad song and had some interesting elements to it, coupled with the backing of Kirkorov and the dream team. Moldova were qualifying in my book and could have got a solid lower mid table finish. The question is how many of those elements will remain. With that uncertainty, I have to edge towards loser here.
Verdict: Loser
Netherlands Jeangru Macrooy
Jeangru delivered exactly what was required with ‘Grow’- a respectable entry that jurors would have saved from the bottom places and not threatened the win at all. The Netherlands will have even less appetite to go back to back now and Jeangru presumably loses his late running order slot. I expect another good song, but probably not something that can threaten.
Verdict: Loser
Romania- Roxen
Another tricky one to assess. Romania provided us with one of the strongest one artist selection shows in years and even before the songs were released there were promising signs in them attempting to improve their process. ‘Alcohol You’ wouldn’t have been my pick but appears to be more fitting to how Roxen wants to come across. We will probably end up with one ballad internally selected this time around and it’s a real coin toss as to whether they can improve and also how close they may be to whatever Bulgaria send too. ‘Alcohol You’ should have been sniffing around the left hand side of the scoreboard, and I wouldn’t turn that down if I was in the Romanian delegation given some recent results. For that reason, I lean slightly on the side of loser here, but Romania remain one to watch.
Verdict: Loser
San Marino- Senhit
‘Freaky’ had some redeeming qualities but fell far too much on the cringe side of things compared to Serhat’s “laugh-a-long” with attempts. Wouldn’t have qualified and whilst it’s unlikely Senhit will find something to really threaten the scoreboard with, something more likely to make the final is not too much to ask.
Verdict: Winner
Serbia- Hurricane
Honestly, Hurricane are likely to send something very similar to “Hasta La Vista” so the only way to call this either way is to look at their semi final and chances of qualifying. I personally felt they had enough to get through last time around and that’s not to be sniffed at. Given we should see some increase in quality from certain countries in there, Serbia might be in a more precarious position in 2021.
Verdict: Loser
Slovenia- Ana Soklic
Call me unprofessional, but I can’t for the life of me remember this one, except for being bored of it at the time. I do recall it wasn’t a bad song, just horribly forgettable and destined to nq, for that reason, Slovenia can’t do any worse.
Verdict: Winner
Spain- Blas Canto
I know the consensus on this one wasn’t great and would agree with predictions Spain were yet again going to hover around the bottom places and certainly on the right hand side of the scoreboard so this should be an easy call right? The problem is that’s par for the course with Spain who achieve an average of 23rd place over the last 5 years, at a time when Latin music (albeit less so from Spain itself) has found widespread success. That’s a missed opportunity that shows the Spanish delegation both don’t care or know about getting a good result, why is it that Cyprus is trying to capitalise on this trend. I’m going to be harsh with this one as I expect other countries to improve more than Blas who is likely to again hover around the lower places.
Verdict: Loser
Switzerland- Gjon’s Tears
Gjon’s Tears was one of the internally selected artists I was most interested in last year, particularly with the Swiss on the up having found a better selection process. I backed the song on release to initial poor market reaction but by the time the contest was called off, my opinion had gone the other way whilst Switzerland climbed the odds. A class song nonetheless and would have been in the hunt for top a top 10. May be difficult to top.
Verdict: Loser
Ukraine- Go_A
One of my personal favourites from the 2020 class, I find it hard to see where Go_A, erm, go_a from here. ‘Solovey’ had something special to it, a great atmosphere and rhythm (better and cleaner before the revamp) that is hard to duplicate. Was never a winner, but an outside shot at top 10 was on. I’ve listened to a few of their tracks and none quite reach the heights.
Verdict: Loser
So there we have it, We will revisit this in a few months from now and see how our predictions fared. Do you agree with our choices? Who do you feel can improve on their entry last year? Feel free to comment below.