Odds Review-Week Ending 28/02
A big one this week, with our first bunch of internal selections so lets jump straight in.
The most highly anticipated internal selection reveal of the week was the first with Cyprus’ ‘El Diablo’ The review of that one is here but in short it has the trimmings of a good song that could underperform.
Three predictably unremarkable internal selections followed:
Germany are out of contention following the release of Jendrik's ‘I Don't Feel Hate’, they're now hovering around the 200-1 mark with Jendrik coming across more annoying than likeable and the song a mess. Ireland's ‘Maps’ remains the 100+ from pre song and looks unlikely to make the final. Slovenia debuted their entry to little fanfare on Saturday. Again, this is well in triple figures and in music video presentation is a sure non-qualifier, although there are one or two glimmers of hope.
All the Melodifestivalen songs are out in Sweden with Tusse now odds on. For what it’s worth my take on Sweden is that Dotter, Tusse and Eric Saade are all solid top 10s, pushing Top 5. The Mamas more 8th-12th. My main issues with Eric (the vocals and general level of smugness given off) are less certain and more fixable than the rest and he might have a higher ceiling. Anything except a Mamas win will probably keep Sweden high in the odds.
Russia are up to second in the odds with the now solid rumours of LittleBig returning. Its hard to see juries giving enough for the win but a high placing overall is inevitable and any E/W money could land. Lithuania have took the brunt of this on the market, with Iceland still top of the odds. It looks like the three of them may well end up getting in each others way. France have climbed back up the odds, making most of their gains immediately after Cyprus’ song release rather than the addition of another novelty entry to the mix. Because, of course, France's old school Chanson is what benefits most from Cyprus’ pop number being below the sky high expectations.
Rumours in Poland have been all over the place with a lot of names floating around, Ochman has been catching some market attention as might the possible return of Cleo. Sadly Armenia still aren't looking too hot politically right now although the rumour is still Athena rather than a withdrawal. There's also little else to report from Belarus where Zena is expected, with potentially an announcement in the next week.
San Remo begins on Tuesday in Italy and concludes on Saturday along with the fairly irrelevant (to the outright) Estonia, Denmark and Portugal.
Songs from The Netherlands and Moldova are due on Thursday with Serbia, who have made a big jump up the odds this last week, also expected some time this week. Georgia have also promised an announcement of sorts.
As always the market is quite twitchy at this point when nothing is really standing out so far. It’s looking like either being a convincing winner we haven’t seen yet or a complete free for all. We cross the barrier this week and will soon have heard all the offerings (selected or not) from over half the field.
