Odds Review- Week Ending 03/01/20

Now that we are into January and the market is starting to take shape, it's time for our first weekly summary of the odds and any movements.

This first edition will be longer than usual given we haven't had a proper rundown yet.

We have a different market this year, as to be expected with the cancellation of last year's contest, resulting in several countries much higher in the betting than usual. Iceland sit top just briefly tickling single figures with the market having high hopes for a strong sequel to 'Think About Things', an entry which was not too much shorter all things considered and not even the favourite last time around. This price gives the impression Iceland were below 4s or so which was not the case. Expectations are a little too high but Iceland of course should be much shorter than the usual 50+ pre contest.

Bulgaria and Russia follow closely and both are to be expected here. Sweden is down as a lowly 4th favourite compared to other years, and a drop is understandable given we appear to be past 'peak Sweden'. The Melodifestivalen field, which you can read about here, is a decent enough lineup and there's probably more room for Sweden to shorten in the market, although backers might be hopeful of a first time winner at MF.

Italy follow ever so closely and well deserve their place in the top 5 of the betting. The San Remo field is as strong as ever and it can’t be long before Italy finally get over the line.

Next down are 4 countries sending the same act again with Switzerland, Malta, Romania and Lithuania. Of the lot, Malta are most likely to improve upon last year's effort.

France follow, with the market likely overly confident in the chances of 'Voila', which has received the most attention. Norway are their usual starting price of around 30s. That could be generous, but despite ramping up MGP in the last couple of years, the depth of quality may not be there yet. Greece are next and a reasonable position in the odds given the team behind this. Belgium and Hooverphonics start at a more reasonable price this year, and although they have their old lead singer back, it’s questionable whether they have any of the spark that makes them one of the biggest names in the competition.

Armenia have the quality and (usually) the ambition to make their odds look silly despite coming of the back of their two worst results in 2018 and 2019 with “too dark and aggressive” staging being the main downfall. Will most likely select Athena internally and they really could go either way, or potentially not go at all still, given the last few months but I still think they would love to win and bring some more attention to themselves.

Of course, the next country in the odds has to be Azerbaijan. Now, 40s+ is a ridiculous starting price given their track record and ambition, the quality they regularly bring, what they sent last year and Effendi herself. There may be just too much reluctance, even more than usual, to vote for Azerbaijan, although there is a lot of room for them to trade lower.

The UK and Germany are around the same area in the odds and both have the quality to win on their day. The problem is, both are just as likely to finish last. The UK's problem of the BBC sending inexperienced singers with middle of the road songs and pants staging is well documented. Germany are obviously looking the likelier and usually get at least one of song, singer and staging right. Poland are around this same area and their usual starting position of around 50s whilst being as quiet as ever about their plans

A country with potential to trade lower is Cyprus. Elena Tsagrinou is not a strong enough artist live to threaten a win and their effort probably lacking in originality and creativity but there's ambition there again and room for a good song and music video at least. The Greek/Cypriot music scene has fully got behind the latin music trend and ‘El Diablo’ should be a competent effort.

Spain, the last of the big 5, are rightfully nowhere and whilst 60s is harsh on Jeangru's talents, it's probably realistic for the Netherlands' chances.
After those there's little to note, the market gives no chance to Albania, Israel and Estonia who are the only countries to have given us anything to listen to yet. There's little love for Denmark who are usually shorter pre-selection and Australia’s Montaigne lacks support but apart from that, the rest of the odds are similar to most years.

*Odds Estimated where necessarry.

What are your thoughts on these starting prices? Feel free to leave a comment below.