Odds Review- 11/05
So we’ve now reached the awkward stage where the rehearsal schedule splits up- at the end of tomorrow we will have seen semi 1 twice, semi 2 once and nothing from our 6 pre-qualified acts. After having seen a run through of the semis at least, here’s where we currently stand:
Malta have lost their favourites tag for the first time since song release practically and have just in the last hour shot past 6s. The market was already nervous before the performance with France pulling level as a ‘safe’ option in anticipation. Russia prompted enthusiasm without ever shortening significantly in the outright whilst Ukraine have jumped into the top 10 of the betting.
Elsewhere from semi 1, Lithuania, Sweden, Norway have all seen big drifts with their larger scale yet identical packages not impressing. Romania now reside in the 300s following a pretty disastrous run through- the right concept, horrible execution.
Greece impressed from semi 2 yet remain as you were in the odds, and somehow twice the price of Cyprus. If any bookie reading wishes to take that at face value and offer a h2h that would be much appreciated.
Iceland have closed the gap at the top in the odds- there’s nothing too special around the staging but Dadi and Gagnamanid provide a charismatic 3 minutes that looks set to punch above it’s weight. Bulgaria were creeping back down in anticipation of their staging and following their first rehearsal sit at single figures. Switzerland have moved out slightly with a mixed reception today. Finland too are in national final form yet drifting hard.
So what to make of all this?
Well, personally I think there’s an incredible amount of ‘seeing what you want to see this year’. Iceland and Bulgaria have both been tipped to be movers in different corners and it’s almost a self fulfilling prophecy that they have done.
The same applies to Switzerland, unmoving in the market and likewise France and Italy backers are not worried by what they have seen.
It’s a highly divided market right now, with 6 countries miles ahead of the pack, yet the shortest still at 5s. It’s hard to recall a year like it. By and large the same people sceptical of each entry still are and believers are more emboldened.
One common ground perhaps is the concerns over Malta and they are a hard case to make on the televote right now, particularly as rehearsals have reminded us how many up tempo females (with very similar staging) there are this year. ‘Woman stood in middle of four dancers with a pinkish backdrop’ is a tough sell. On the one hand it’s testament to the influence of Sasha Jean Baptiste on Eurovision staging, on the other we’re in that rabbit hole of imitation rarely working- and that includes self-imitation. I can’t see this beating Italy in the televote, or Iceland, or all of the ballads and potentially 5 or 6 others are ahead too.
With these rehearsals in mind I go back to what I wrote in my first prediction of the year-
“It's also a jury heavy year at the top of the market with 5 of the break away top 6 (Switzerland, Malta, France, Bulgaria, Sweden) being more reliable with the juries - Italy being the exception. That could go both ways: potentially the likes of Italy and the chasing pack in the odds of Lithuania, Iceland and any of the outsiders (that lean TV) could be too far back or, as I feel is more likely- the jury is going to be unable to give any clear/ unassailable lead- think something like 2018.”
Sweden are irrelevant now in the outright, but the point stands. And with Eurojury throwing Iceland and Italy into their top 6 (or 4th and 5th if we ignore the similarly irrelevent Israel), this is shaping up to be an incredibly tight year at the top and I believe it is the televote that will decide this.
Anyway, here are the odds with the changes from Saturday morning just before rehearsals:
