A First Look At The 2022 Odds (16/01)
Welcome to the first overview of the Eurovision odds! Like last year, we’'ll be running through the key moves and news on a week by week basis, ideally I’d have had this running from the start of January and there’s already been a bit of a shuffle which will be touched on. Being the first run down, this will be a fairly hefty edition…
Sweden, Russia and Italy are in their usual starting positions at the top of the market which isn’t much of a surpirse. Italy have took the outright lead to do the double following journalist previews of the San Remo entries. Sweden have a typical melodifestivalen lineup headed by Robin Bengtson and Klara Hammarstrom. Russia can blow hot and cold much more and are expected to go with a ‘dream team’ entry again. Norway are just behind this group and haven’t moved much overall since revealing their hand including Elsie Bay and Subwoolfer.
Australia have gradually closed the gap on this top 4 after being in the mid 30s. There’s names and the odd snippet floating around which have built some interest. Germany find themselves considerably shorter than usual in 5th spot. The majority of rumours have circled on Eskimo Cowboy but both the German broadcatser and public are prone to landing on the unexpected. I’m not certain either move is quite warranted until we get full competing entries in each NF. Poland are going with a national final too and the presence of Krystian Ochman (who also briefly excited the market last year) is the main reason they feature high up. ‘Paranoia’ will also be there after doing the rounds in the rumour mill a few weeks back.
Sticking with the Baltics Latvia went favourite for all of two minutes, matched as low as 14. Someone must really like veggies. Or p***y. Aminata is also present with an unfinished ballad as is the increasingly awful Markus Riva. 40+ is available now. Lithuania and Estonia are priced a little higher- both have familiar names but little stands out from either yet.
Finland are in the middle of releasing their UMK songs with The Rasmus taking the headlines. Mid 20s is flattering right now but then many countries are much shorter than usual. One of those is Spain who are using the ‘Benidorm Fest’ to select their act and can be had in the low 20s. I don't follow the scene and am not interested in betting on this so I'm not certain how accurate the odds are but ‘Ay Mama’ is the current favourite to get the ticket.
Cyprus have found themselves on the back of many rumours- Cybc want to break the pop bop cycle but don't seem able to get their first options to do so. Could go several ways yet but they're trying to continue the island's best ever run.
Little news yet from France or Ukraine who usually have something of note at least and will be holding national finals. Armenia are low 30s and the second country linked with a dream team collaboration and Saro Gevorgyan leading. Athena Manoukian is also sitting waiting by her phone and will probably be linked for the next 10 years regardless.
Greece and the Netherlands have their artists revealed and “probably solid, probably not winning” is the consensus. S10’s entry for the Dutch may have been heard already and we have a good idea Greece’s Norway based singer will be bringing something similar to ‘Death of Us’.
A Switzerland in a hot streak follow at 40 as do tight-lipped Azerbaijan. Internal selections will come from each in due course.
Rumours are all over the place with the UK as a different record label team up begins. Baring being disqualified on the night, it's impossible to go worse than last year which is something and same approach with a different label is a sensible reaction. Across the North Sea, Ireland are double the price and the word is not good. Releasing entries at random times throughout the week on the radio followed by a selection on the late late show doesn’t really scream rte have learned does it? If they have anything good, which isn’t impossible, it will be by accident.
Staying with the negatives, I've not listened to Romania's songs but by all accounts they're pretty terrible. Only worth checking in on them again once they've selected really with Selectia National also throwing up odd results.
Focusing now on countries with at least an act chosen (otherwise this run down will take forever and become even more boring) we have Belgium's Jeremie Makiese around 46. All down to what song they can find there as we've seen with previous voice winners and entrants they've used. The Czech Republic are around the 80 mark with the best confirmed entry and Albania have mainly been chilling around 100 since ‘Sekret’ was selected. Both have started to go out in recent days (Albania heading to 200). Montenegro rarely attract much interest with Vladana’s selection not changing that.
Georgia are usually somewhere towards the bottom of the odds and the selection of Circus Mircus would usually guarantee them bottom of the pile. Possibly interesting, certainly hopeless. Bulgaria have come to their rescue however with ‘Intention’, anyone backing this can only hope for a change of act which to be fair has grown slightly more likely with their lead singer dodging the Spanish courts. Something will have to develop there in the coming months before the mainstream media get involved- ‘Eurovision singer on run from the law” is not the type of headline the EBU want.
