SanRemo 2024: Finals Night Preview
Well, if I was right about one thing this year it was that this edition would be a hard one to call and after a bit of a whirlwind ride these past weeks since press previews came through we are almost back where we started. In fairness, there have been some ok calls here with the early tip of Annalisa showing some promise and technically still in the race just about, whilst the Mango hype train was expected to arrive (and ultimately die out). Mahmood has also been making a nuisance of himself just under the headlines whilst the other early favourites of Allesandra Amoroso and Negramaro haven’t featured at all as expected. Stances on Irama, Il Volo and Diodato have been a little off however whilst Berte goes down as a mixed bag having semi featured after a switcheroo of opinion between my blind preview and post press-release preview.
Ultimately however, one opinion that now has to be reversed is one relevant right at the top in that Geolier would not be able to win due to the lack of apparent jury appeal. What we know is he was outside the top 5 with the Press/TV/Web jury on night 1 and give or take 12th in averaged rankings based on song alone pre-contest, not taking into account the sub optimal live performance. What we also know is that the radio jury (who should be more lenient in theory) did not/could not stop him winning the stacked night 2 and both juries combined could not stop him winning last nights covers edition against the entire field. A night in which any quality gap between him and Angelina Mango was increased perhaps 10 fold, and that’s being generous to his rap medley.
Given he is guaranteed to be in tonight’s superfinal the question is: how on earth does anyone now stop him with ‘I P’ Me, Tu P’ Te’? the song with the most music video views and likes, the song top of the domestic spotify charts. The rumour doing the rounds that he received at least 51% of the vote on night 2 seems plausible considering last nights result. Anyway, as always to see if there is any threat to him we must first try to complete the superfinal. Angelina Mango and Annalisa look certain to join him leaving two spots which should be between Irama, Mahmood, Loredana Berte and Ghali.
Having acheived a 2nd place amongst the radio (who I wouldn’t think were too keen) and televote on the competitive night 2 Irama looks likely to take a spot and benefits from being the only ballad to really take flight. Views and likes are pretty strong also. We then have Mahmood who is sat 2nd on spotify and generally highly competitive on most stats as well as previous success and a large fanbase. Ghali lags behind on most metrics but put in a stronger showing last night. It’s debateable whether 2nd on night 3 shows more strength than Mahmood’s 5th on night 1 but it’s likely he carries more points in the bag. Loredana looks to have lost much of her momentum but does appeal to a different audience than Mahmood and Ghali and could have a more hidden vote. Ghali's case has taken a boost however strong given he has been squeezed in with the favourites in tonight’s running order.
It's quite uncertain, but I will just lean with Mahmood which gives us: Geolier, Angelina Mango, Annalisa, Irama and Mahmood in the final 5.
Given the rumours and the results last night I’m assuming Geolier is able to acheive 55%+ of the televote here. As much as this feels ‘pazza’ it’s impossible to explain his success otherwise and to bring in the Eurovision angle we have seen such numbers reached in other National Finals semi regularly with Ukraine’s Vidbir last week the latest example with 62% of the vote in a field of 11. The argument of any tactical voting diminsishing his lead seems to me a weak one. I’d expect the two other men to drop off a tad in favour of Angelina and Annalisa but nothing coordinated enough and there’s perhaps more possibility of a siege mentality from Naples and the South amongst Geolier’s core fanbase. The juries likewise may not be able to co-ordinate effectively although I do expect some Annalisa backers to jump ship over to Mango given the later’s better results so far and closer odds. There’s a certain amplification effect and self fulfilling prophecy, as well as Angelina being more hard done by last night, otherwise I wouldn’t have much between them. Even with this contrivance however and pretty low socres for Mahmood and particularly Irama (and/or Ghali if he’s in) , I can’t quite get the maths to work enough to oppose Geolier. He should be getting 10% from the main jury and 15% from the radio jury I assume which should be enough. Unprecedented manipulation and tactics is needed to counter his unprecedented televote and that just isn’t as likely. I’d give Geolier a 65% chance with Angelina on 30%, Annalisa on 4% and a 1% chance on Loredana. I’ve played about swapping around the superfinalists but haven’t found a game changing difference. The inclusion of Ghali instead of Mahmood makes things better for the ladies but Geolier would also assumedly increase his jury score too. There’s a difference but not a game changing one. Berte instead of Mahmood does not help the women at all and slightly hurts them whilst if we land on the Mahmood/Berte combo it looks game over.
I’ve said this a few times already but I’ve never been particularly comfortable with the Mango push feeling for lack of a better term- “very un sanremo-esque”. It’s something I’ve barely kept green despite expecting a sweat but for a minute this was looking hers despite my personal bafflement and the train has took longer to come of the rails than I was expecting (not that it really has- she could still win this). The ‘big name just wins it’ is something I can get on board with at SanRemo much easier given the past and Geolier’s re-emergence has given me a chance to make a prediction I am relatively comfortable with, even if I’ve doubted his credentials too until the past few days. Angelina should gather some ground but I'm not sure it will be enough.
Prediction
Geolier
Angelina Mango
Annalisa
Mahmood
Irama
I’ve included a full example breakdown below, it’s not something I’m 100% comfortable with but is a general ballpark I’m looking at.
This is the first year since starting this site that I’ve been forced to change my pre-song prediction as a testament to the increased volatility and unpredictability of this edition, but needs must in order to try to salvage at least part of the streak. If I’m correct and Geolier does go on to win this I don’t look forward to the domestic fallout with this set to be a very controversial win. As for Eurovision, the prevailing opinion seems to be that there are better options so I’m expecting the drift to solidify somewhat. There's a non 0% chance Geolier declines and let’s Angelina presumably take his place as some sort of compromise - boos make people do strange things which would be a shame regardless of stance on the song. If it is Geolier, there might be quite a high ceiling but greater variance.