Melodifestivalen 2024 Preview
We’ve had the potential representatives for Sweden on home soil released for a good while now and with the start of Melodifestivalen just over 2 weeks away it’s about time we took a first look at the field.
First off, Melfest continues to make tweaks to the format with not a whole lot of purpose in my view. We have 5 semi finals where 2 progress now giving us 10 of our 12 finalists with the last 2 spots decided in a quick vote of the 3rd and 4th placers after semi 5. That may take a few reads over to sink in but the long and short of it is if you can't get straight through you're in more trouble than past years and whilst we have an extra semi to speculate on we look to lose the 'Andra Chansen' markets in entirety given the field will be completed too late before the run off. Any impact on what we’re focusing on at this stage in terms of the winner market?- not really.
The lineup itself is the Andra Chansen this year with a stack of previous 2nd and 3rd placers looking to go one better, let’s have a quick run through in odds order…
Marcus and Martinus
Until the new year I was expecting to be a bit more positive about Marcus and Martinus' (MM) chances. They are still worthy favourites in my eyes but them opening rather than closing the final semi (as the SVT presumptive/preferred winner often does) adds a little more caution to whether this is an all-out attempt at victory. Now this is most likely simply due to Medina making an impact from the pimp slot previously, but still there's a small dampener on their hopes in that a. SVT have declined an opportunity to give them the full on pimping from the get go (which appeared possible and b. Medina have a better show closer which puts their song under the spotlight. Yes this is going down a big rabbit hole based of not very much, but that is what we have for now- acts, song titles and a draw.
Encouragingly however, the concerns over how Sweden would take to a Noweigan duo seem to have been answered as was the more pressing, demographic drop off theory; falling to 7s at worst in the older categories last year illustrated pretty consistent scoring. I was never the biggest fan of 'Air' but if they were bringing that this year they'd have a great chance and on the topic of song titles, ‘Unforgettable’ is one of the snapier and more promising out of the favourites. Not the best performers in the field by any stretch but this will likely be overlooked by the juries too.
Danny Saucedo
Good 'ol Saucey Dan is second favourite at a more reasonable and longer price than his opening one. Apart from name recognition, it's another one a bit hard to read into how serious this attempt at victory is with different writers to the default melfest lot (G:son, Joker, Dino, Debs et al) who throw up a sizeable number of duds between them but often the most favoured and pushed entries too. Danny has been given last in semi 4 (no longer last overall) in a sign of greater strength than 'Dandi Dansa' a couple of years back. A charismatic, capable and well liked performer, but one who doesn't seem too bothered whether he's 1st or 7th, and one who won’t win on name power alone unless this year is particularly poor.
Dotter
An act who definitely is bothered about winning is international fan favourite Dotter who also starts in semi 4, but concerningly in the middle of it. 3rd favourite for the whole thing, but an underdog to win the semi on paper- that doesn’t sit too comfortably. Another red flag is the longwinded and somewhat soppy title making me question how this will play out and if the televote will get on board this time - her fandom popularity is not matched domestically and I’d argue she has underachieved every year, particularly 2020 in losing to The Mamas.
Jay Smith
Jay Smith enters as fourth favourite currently with the thinking perhaps that his entry will be the oasis of authenticity in between Melfest's usual flashing lights and fireworks. It's an angle that can succeed but not something I want to speculate on either way. In the middle of a semi with MM and Medina closing gives him a hard task to get into the top 2.
Smash Into Pieces
Last years 3rd placers are around this mark too which seems pretty fair. They close a pretty weak on paper semi 1. I typically wouldn't think they'd be able to go much higher than they managed last time but this could be a field for them to attack and would make for a good 'host entry', should Sweden feel so inclined.
Liamoo
Liamoo is a more reliable performer and brings better entries than odds above 20 in some places suggest. What is hurting him this year is the bigger named Saucedo and fresher Marcus and Martinus fishing in similar waters, and from the look of the draw SVT may believe he's got the least competitive entry too.
Froken Snusk
Something of a novelty act, Snusk has been sneaking down in the odds and has really caught up now after being given the pimp slot in heat 2. Whether this spells a competitive entry and not just the biggest talking point of the evening is a different matter. Whatever the semi result, Sweden tend to get more serious in the final and with the international juries coming in its impossible to be optimistic here.
Medina
Ranging from 14s-26s, Medina are potentially back-able in top 3 or 5 markets but the win looks a stretch with the assumption being they're closing semi final proceedings for party vibes not as a champion elect, similarly to how Eurovision draws operate in the final.
Semi 3 is the hardest to pick a name from and if you shop around for prices 28s+ outright is available on all the competitors, namely Jacqline, Clara Klingenstrom, Kim Cessarion, and Cazzi Opeia. One of these will enter the final as a semi winner which will definitively not be the case for some much higher in the odds however it’s anyone’s guess as to who that will be. Cazzi Opeia has the most credentials on paper but voteability remains a concern.
Idol runner up Albin Tingwall and a Maria Sur competing without much of a push or sympathy angle are other recogniseable names above 30-1 with the running order for both not promising much. Samir and Viktor and Lisa Ajax are also regulars but diminishing returns (from not the highest of starting points) is very much the case, so much so I shan’t even highlight them in bold- you have to earn that ctrl+b!
My Prediction
1. Marcus and Martinus
2. Smash Into Pieces
3. Danny Saucedo
I was on the early MM odds and am sitting on that but at this stage, I think there’s only some value on Smash who should still be double figures but closer to the 10s mark and above Jay Smith. My rationale is that if the rest of their semi as well as 2 and 3 are as empty as feared that's quite some time for them to solidify a position before the bigger hitters come in.
Overall however, I think the odds are fairly accurate but the relatively wide ranges, particularly away from the top 4 or 5 in the betting highlight how this is a very marginal year- there is an opening for someone to come through, but good luck pinning down exactly who that will be.