Manic Mango Math
Italy have been a steady riser in the odds since Sanremo where Angelina Mango was able to secure a convincing victory over domestic favourite Geolier, fan favourite Annalisa and betting pundit favourite Mahmood who was unable to find the top 5. Such has been the climb that Italy are trading in the 5s at the time of writing, coming within a tick of favouritism before being pushed back.
The reason for this is predominantly due to two related factors:
‘La Noia’ is the only entry where there is a consensus and seeming certainty of a strong jury showing. Switzerland and Belgium have their fans but are yet to be seen in a contest/live environment. Sweden is one your’s truly rates highly but they are hampered by performing 1st and whether their package is too lightweight and cliche is a fair debate. France likewise may be lacking in the composition department whilst there’s not been much of a case put forward for anything else to top that side of the vote.
Of those outlined presumed jury win contenders - Italy are also generally acknowledged as having the most televote potential, for fairly similar reasons. Indeed, over at X less than 10% of you believe Belgium will outscore her with the public with Switzerland faring little better at around 16%.
However, those polls also helped solidify my theory that Italy are looking on for a 4th place televote score - under current expectations of course. The Netherlands, Croatia and Ukraine all came out on top and that might be a very realistic outcome should you subscribe to the theory mentioned previously that Angelina is now competing against several Geolier-esque regional powerhouses. Perhaps one of these underperforms, or perhaps something else emerges but lets run with this for now to get to the point of this article;
Can Italy win if they are ‘only’ 4th in the televote?
To answer this, let’s first see what a reasonable 4th place televote score may look like, because relative position doesn’t matter - points do.
Covering the last 10 years (9 editions) the entry coming in 4th with the public has received an average of 213.5 pts (a low of 189 and a high of 255). In more relevant pts per country that’s 5.44 (a low of 4.7 and a high of 6.2). Assuming Italy, as the 4th placer, follows that trend that would give them 201 pts on average (174 worst case, 229 best case).
Ok, that’s all very interesting but getting more to the point the average lead the televote winner had over the televote fourth placer is 137 pts. Adjusting for the smaller field this year that’s 129 pts we would expect Italy to be behind. Taking out Ukraine 2022 gives us 120 pts. In fact, on only 1 occasion has the 4th placer been less than 100 pts behind with that being 2019’s 47pt deficit. I know this is seen right now as tight year, but for the sake of this argument, lets follow the averages.
So following the maths so far, we can conclude Italy - or indeed any jury 1st placer, televote 4th- would need around a 120pt lead over the televote winner with the juries, all things being equal in order to hold on to the overall win.
Now, even if you accept that as the target to aim for in this hypothetical scenario, it is going to be a matter of opinion how reasonable that sounds. To me, that does appear to be an unreasonable lead right now. Italy 250J, Croatia/Ukraine 130J might be a realistic outcome, but that may be the only range in my view, otherwise we are really pushing ‘La Noia’ too high or the others too low - particularly Ukraine who are less vulnerable to a staging cock-up than the Croats. I would expect right now a greater than 120pt lead over The Netherlands however, so positioning them as the televote winner would help Angelina’s chances.
Looking beyond the numbers alone, we are yet to see this breakdown win the contest. Dami Im’s near miss in 2016 was very close to bringing us this whilst Duncan Laurence’s 3/2 split is statistically the weakest win. Indeed, only one entry to finish 3rd in the televote has even won (Sweden 2015), which was not under the current system.
Conclusions
It’s important to stress Italy’s chances at winning the contest (or any substitute country) are not reliant on this singular path to victory we’ve gone over here- it is certainly not out of the question ‘La Noia’ just ends up winning the televote for example. We have also took the average here of course whilst it is a perfectly reasonable view that this is a more open year than many. However, a year’s outcome is never set in stone. That most open 2019 had one of the bigger favourites, whilst 2018 in which half the field came and went as a fancy ended up being very comfortable. If we do follow the math however we can assume a fourth place televote is very unlikely to be enough. A high absolute jury score approaching if not above 300 would be the biggest benefit obviously but a narrower than average year with the public and a very jury unfriendly televote winner would also help. In my opinion, that first point does not look likely for Italy (or any entry this year) but the second two may be although we are playing a dangerous game with how the televote has increasingly coalesced and snowballed. If we are to stretch this further perhaps with Mustii, Slimane and Marcus and Martinus in the crosshair’s and ask if a televote 5th/6th placer could win the answer is categorically no. They would somehow need to climb higher beyond current general expectations. It is statistically far easier for a country to win by us underrating their televote appeal, rather than us correctly labelling them as a 4th placer and the maths somehow landing. Unless you are looking at complete jury poison unable to score 100 pts even winning the televote (Finland, Israel?, The Netherlands?) the simplest solution for landing the winner is simply to find the televote winner/2nd.
As stated, I am very aware Italy have the potential to perform far better on the televote than feared in this scenario but gun to my head - that 4th does look realistic doesn’t it? and that is why I’m still cautious over the chances of this one. I believe 450 pts should be enough this year but there may be an easier path to that than a J1st TV4th.
I am planning on making these math editions a mini series this year and next time we’ll be taking a look at the opposite side of this with a focus on Croatia and The Netherlands’ chances.