Eurovision 2024: Grand Final Preview

There was a point a month back when the worst predictions in the back of our minds for this edition were kind of put to one side and instead we were heading for a wide open and interesting year. Then, one by one, all of our challengers began to fall away leaving an underdog and most unlikely odds on favourite predicted to romp the televote and avenge the (zeit)ghost of last year. And then, allora…

Suddenly, the walls of our reality began crashing down like an Olly Alexander prop gone wrong and from that moment on, this edition has descended into a farce I have never seen at the contest and there is a shadow of negativity hanging over the year. I was well prepared for this outcome, but the way in which this has all took hold is quite shocking. Added to that of course Is the scenario with The Netherlands’ DQ (but still voting). We've been on a wild ride with ‘Europapa’ that has come to a sad and controversial ending, however events transpire from here.

Anyway, enough story time and adding to the gloom, let’s get back to the old standard predictions business before re-addressing the serious points and all important winner question.

The Battle At The Bottom

Whilst Windows95man's arse will be last with the juries, there should be enough of a gimmick novelty vote to save him from the lower positions. This is an old school piece of nonsense that I can’t help loving and the contrast between our man running around pretending to be naked before Serbia’s heartfelt balkan ballad is peak Eurovision. Finland look to have performed well in semi 1 as expected (3rd or 4th?) and might be hovering around the top 10 in the televote.

Instead it's the 4 cheeks of Spain that are favourites to be sore from sitting on the lowest rung of the scoreboard and as an automatic qualifier this is fair. Not my thing at all and the performance is poor but I can see the appeal of this to its target audience. There is an anthemic quality to 'Zora' and I think its humorous and self aware enough to charm it's way into few televote top 10s. Bottom 5 on both measures but not disastrously so in my book.

The UK takes a far seedier approach in attempting to grab the gay vote. It's brave and visually well executed but I don't think that more in your face approach works in comparison. I'm expecting a very bad televote here and remain unsure on the jury side. The song is mediocre, the vocal just about passable and the staging controversial.

Norway were more of a semi final song and the fact they look to have bombed there concerns me whilst the jury appeal was dubious to begin with. This was a hit or miss that looks to have roundly missed unfortunately. Germany should be getting enough jury points to avoid last place but a low finish is still tipped as the televote could be non existent. Despite what the odds may say, I don't believe Austria are immune from coming last either despite closing the show. Following Croatia, Georgia and France highlights the jury deficiencies further, the call to action is low and there’s no dependable allies. Estonia have been my long term pick for last place and I believe they could join Finland on 0 from the juries, but without a strong enough televote to save themselves. Slovenia and Cyprus should have enough base points and connections to avoid last but could come into it if everyone else lands well.

The Midtable

I’m not sure how well Lithuania is faring and they also have the problem of following tonight’s big talking point now. Coupled with the poor Eurojury poll might be at their worst case scenario of typical diaspora +30. It could be close between them and Latvia for top Baltic with the latter presenting great value. Dons comes at a good time in the draw for jurors and they might give him the edge needed. Portugal too *should* be rewarded by juries with the best vocal of the night and an effective avant-garde staging. Coupled with a likely Luxembourg 12pt tele and a few regional points here and there expect them to overperform. There are a lot of h2h markets on Iolanda which may be the best bets. Slightly higher we have Armenia and Georgia who both seemingly did well in semi 2. Nutsa also gives one of the performances of the night and blows Austria, Cyprus and Luxembourg out of the water from the girl bops - dare I even say Italy? Armenia however have a package well positioned to get scores from the East and Balkans and should have the televote edge. This is a close battle.

The Top 10

Ireland have been one of the market movers of the year but I think this is where the cap falls. Fairing well on YouTube but pretty poorly everywhere else, it's my belief people are checking this out due to the hype more than anything. Yes it's an 'art piece and visual performance' but still, I'm yet to be convinced it is translating fully into votes that people expect. This is not an unfair prediction in my opinion and removing the fan and western/UK centric bubble this is a great outcome for Ireland. Looking at my numbers, I actually think I’m being too generous now.

Sweden have proved divisive this year between those of us who believe it's close to business as usual and those that have this as a particularly weak package. I will say I'm less confident than I was on this with Sweden pissing off a lot of countries this year and placing Ukraine in second exposes how plastic this is, another reason that move was unexpected. Overall, it's still easy filler for jurors and as a bit of a name, Marcus and Martinus could have more votes to count on than expected.

Greece I am fairly comfortable with being in the top 10 and again the theory is I am looking for entries with a proven fan base. The Greek diaspora is not the largest but they are into this. Points from the East and South should be big enough to make up for an indifferent north and west and this should be getting a better jury than maybe expected, again mainly regionally based. Could have done quite well in the semi with one of the better draws available.

Into almost fully secure top 10 territory and we have Italy. It doesn't feel like two minutes ago that I was getting called out for having this 3rd but now 6th doesn't seem controversial at all. My old 'many Geolier's' theory remains the primary televote issue with a weak call to vote whilst staging isn't ideal. 6s to 60s during rehearsals isn't entirely Italy's fault and it's not for the lack of trying but yeah, sometimes the year just gets away from you. I won't stick the boot in.

The contenders

Switzerland is something I've had as a dark horse from the moment I heard it and it's never really gone beyond that for me. In general, I've just been unsure on the televote gravitating to this in enough numbers. The staging is both serious and technically amazing but also manic and silly. Like Ireland, it's cinematic and spectacular, but does it get the casual vote in the numbers expected? Whilst the arena poll win was a good sign, you have to seriously question a result in which the 3rd placer didn’t even perform. We accept Spain and Austria are overachieving in these polls given the fan demographics, it’s my belief Switzerland are too. I also look at the semi stats where this isn’t doing too hot, certainly not compared to our full blooded televote trio. Throw in the more hidden votes for Israel and Ukraine and consider where this might come, and with what sort of points tally. As for the juries, this is certainly in the running for first and heading for an easy 250 ish points in the field. I’m not sure it should be odds-on for the win however.

Into the top 4 where I can't seperate the two entries of second from last France taking on second in the running order Ukraine. Firstly, the blatant attempt to kill off this has mainly had the result of royally angering the Ukrainians but on the other hand they were coming for this to almost maximum potential regardless I feel. The intention is instead to prevent as many casuals coming on board as possible and send a message to the jurors. I do think this will prove very resilient on both sides of the vote and at this stage was a distance behind Croatia anyway and possibly Israel. Net effect? They shuffle from 3rd to 4th with Bjorkman costing them a bronze medal in my predictions.

France is an even more uncomfortable pick for third above Ukraine than it was going to be as midway through this draft Slimane decided to give one of his lesser vocal performances. As watchers who've been seeing him perform his step back from the mic powerhouse displays for months, it's easy to get carried away with the significance and to be blunt, this is still a great performance overall and a very easy package to rank highly across the entirety of Europe. The market in general often overvalue France and they’re a country I don’t have the best read on but this does feel the more obvious jury winner. Stats have been surprisingly promising for an automatic qualifier and you’d expect a higher % of Slimane’s votes would be less visible and vocal than for a few others. I keep saying this, but there feels “too much going on” for this to pull out a big enough televote to win regardless of what the juries do.

Israel is the big talking point of the last few days. Despite strong views, downloads, coverage and non-fan polling, it has took the leak of the Italian televote to create full on panic in the market, and the producer’s minds- if you think tonight’s running order is a bit strange, this is why. For anyone who missed it, Israel received around 40% of the vote in Italy on Thursday, a huge number, although this vote was “partial and incomplete”. Now this can be handwaived away with ‘smaller audience’, ‘they were trying to vote for themselves’ or reading into the “incomplete”, but still, 40%… is a big margin and an unnecessary one to dominate the televote in our scoring system. If that dropped to 15% in the final, when “complete”, they would still be getting the 12 points from Italy and almost every other country. On the whole, there are not a whole lot of reasons why Italy wouldn't be fairly representative of pro-Israeli sentiment and like Ukraine ‘22 we might be looking at only a handful of specific countries where this doesn't do amazingly well. This is still hard to estimate, but I am assuming Israel wins the televote overall.

The juries pose the main question on victory. As stated previously, ‘Hurricane’ performed above expectation in Eurojury and I last said they could get around 130 total which could be enough if the televote really snowballed. However, that leak and jump into second favourite makes me second guess this and my previous assumption we’d have around 20% pro Israel jurors, 40% neutral, 40% marking down (either slightly or extremely). Can jurors really remain neutral now that the win looks so much more real? I’d put myself in that group who isn't personally bothered by Israel's involvement but would hate to see them win (finances non-withstanding) and the chaos that would cause. I’m not sure Israel passes the 100 pt mark that could be needed to see off the favourite…

Croatia Yeah yeah, boring and expected pick from me but I don’t see much reason why I wouldn’t predict this now. You can argue about your google searches with Ireland or your arena poll with Switzerland but realistically, Croatia is by far and away the most consistent performer across any metric and holds the most widespread casual appeal. We’re top of views and leading Spotify (admitted advantage vs semi 2 here) and charting in the most countries. Crucially, we have some Balkans although not a lot where this really should get some 12s banked too, they may also need to do a job in not going in as hard on Israel and Ukraine as the rest of Europe is liable to.

Is an anti-Israel vote a factor? I don’t know. Ironically, we saw the anti-vote work in Iceland earlier this season in a h2h but we also saw the public in Italy unable to do anything about Geolier in San Remo with it’s larger field- relying on the jury heavy system. If people are aware enough this is an effective h2h, it’s possible Croatia could still top the televote but regardless there is room for two heavyweights to co-exist and both storm past the 300 mark. I’m expecting Croatia to comfortably be ahead of Ukraine, and within 50pts of Israel on the televote with that trio dominating.

On the jury side, this will be rewarded heavily. If you want to consider Eurojury with a serious correlation this jumps above the eliminated Belgium by default into 4th and it’s arguable that this now has a live glowup vs the competition where the reverse was speculated. It was at this point in the ‘21 season that after being on Maneskin as a televote push I speculated that it wasn’t impossible for them to also win the jury. In the end that didn’t happen and by a wide enough margin and it’s a stretch for this to also do that. To do so, we need to see the triple dose of extreme favouritism inflation, anti-Israel coalescence and a push for a “popular” winner after last year. I have average odds at 16-1 for that, but more likely is this ‘only’ jumps above Italy into 3rd and the 200s. Sadly- and I mean that ballad lovers, jury tastes are probably too ingrained for more.

Prediction

My estimated score breakdown for the juries (L) and televote is below.

Which adds together to give the final escbetting prediction of the season as this:

Switzerland and France are back-up options for the EBU but realistically I don't see either of them doing enough on the televote, neither inherently or with 2 big beasts and Ukraine still knocking around as one of the stronger packages despite the draw. It’s possible Ukraine could still cause an upset (more 30s than 70s) but are likely squeezed on both sides enough.

This does look like a h2h between Croatia and Israel. A possible h2h between 40 countries next year or 20, a popular winner or complete disrepute. One way or another, I don't think it’s a battle the EBU will let themselves lose and I don’t think it will be lost- I have a huge margin of victory and a high points total for Croatia - particularly considering the low number of entrants this year comparatively. I’d say I’m around 70% certain of Zagreb 2025 and for them to lose I’ll have to be overestimating both sides of the equation significantly as well as having forecasted the Israeli score too low, perhaps on both sides again. I estimate a 25% chance of chaos and a 5% chance I’m completely off and something else takes it.

My Position

I’m sitting at the break even mark on Switzerland should I prove to have just called this wrong and there is enough TV appeal or some huge 300+ jury and big lead. France is a slightly better green whilst Ukraine, Croatia and Israel are heavily covered. I’m still with Israel as the biggest win and am tempted to keep this a little bigger to soften the blow should they go the distance. On the whole it’s been my most successful year at trading the market and more a balancing game now with no real liabilities.

Spain is covered for a small win at last but is a boring prediction and instead all of Estonia, Austria, Norway and Cyprus would be big wins and all offer value at current odds in their own ways. Germany, Luxembourg, The UK and Slovenia could all fall into it in theory and who I don't want to see.

Greece, Portugal (at big odds) and Georgia are the top 10 plays. Sweden should be in there but top Nordic appeals more and is where I’ve shifted too. That looks a bit more dicey also depending on how many of Joost Klein’s votes now fall to Finland.

Croatia (avg odds 16s) and France (4s) with the juries is also backed and I’ll be cheering on at least 3 jury 12s for Baby Lasagna. Based off my maths, I’ve also took some positions on winning margin and total points score which I really was not expecting to do a month ago.

Good luck and meow to all and let us hope the vast majority of us calling this for Croatia are correct. The contest's immediate future could depend on this.