Eurovision 2023: The Full Field
This has turned into an alright year in my opinion. The diversity of the entries is particularly high and there's lots that can grab the public's imagination. Semi Two lets the side down massively however and putting my juror's hat on there's a lot less of traditional ‘quality’ to appreciate. Overall, average but a good watch. Personally, it's also cool to see Loreen, Marco Mengoni and Pasha Parfeni all back from a decade ago when I first started really getting into the contest more.
Anyway, let’s take a trip through our significant entries in odds order:
Sweden
Sweden is the obvious favourite and I'm sure even the biggest sceptics would accept that statement and the idea this is a very likely jury winner, possibly by a large margin. The televote is not as sure no but the signs are strong and we could be underestimating it if anything. For reference, perhaps backers can take comfort from ‘Euphoria’ triumphing with the public over ‘Party for Everybody’ in 2012. ‘Tattoo’ is weaker, almost by default being a follow up entry, but I’d argue so is this year's novelty rival in ‘Cha Cha Cha’ which also lacks the Russian bloc support. I could see both in the 270-300 televote point range in which case there's only one winner.
For the negatives we have the idea that this lacks that sense of identity recent televote favourites have had and Sweden underperforming in the televote most years since 2012 in fact. We also have the staging uncertainty literally hanging over this with changes perhaps forced in Liverpool. They have a very solid lead in my estimations making 1.9 reasonable although as we've seen many times with favourites issues can quickly compound and spiral meaning no contest is ever won by this stage, except last year's I guess:/.
Finland
My thoughts haven't changed on Finland much since the review either but in short I still have a big problem making the maths work. At the end of the day, with all the good will and high odds in the world I can't see this getting beyond 150 jury points for reasons that should be obvious, whilst 300 points is a realistic top end televote given 15+ years of evidence and a reduced field, with plenty of alternatives.
Ukraine
Whereas I'm much more confident in capping Finland's score, Ukraine remains much more volatile. Its the “known knowns- known unknowns - unknown unknowns” scenario. Gnomes.
My assumptions with Ukraine are these;
In non war times etc etc this might be around 10th-13th with 150ish points.
Ukraine are fairly easy to place within a jury top 10. I'd expect most to have it 7th-10th with the especially sympathetic having more of an upwards skew than those intent to prevent a second win will have a downward pull. With the ranking system we have they're good for a 130-150pt score.
Ukraine can afford to drop a significant number of raw voters without losing that many points. Last year's score was so unprecedented that I assume they weren't winning all those 12s by a small margin. It was the big oversight of last year that even just 1% of viewers throwing a vote their way for sympathy/solidarity could lead to that sort of landslide. It's the Lithuania diaspora in the UK example, a small engaged group carry much greater weight than a mass, generally apathetic, and much more evenly split one. And then you have the diaspora itself to consider. I really, really, Reilly don't want to be tied to a guess with how all this comes together but I’d shrug and guess 250-300pts to take all the evidence we have together.
I will say, there's a strong argument that their price is an indicator of public support. There have been a few nibbles but the casuals pile on has yet to really happen. You do get the sense the massess feel last year was a one-off deal. Neither the jury or televote score I have puts them within winning reach but like I say, there's more room for me to be just wrong here.
Norway
Beyond some of the early excitement over ‘Queen of Kings’ “going viral” I've not seen anyone push out the case for this winning. It's a simple composition, Allesandra is charismatic but with my critics hat on it's a weak performance and this is already 3rd in the scandi pecking order alone. Perhaps out of any favourite I'm most confident in this one not winning and a top 5 is highly doubtful.
Spain
Spain is the main enigma of the year and it's the hardest to pin down. I am open minded and cautious that it fits the trend so to speak of recent winners and challengers but I can equally see a sub 50pt televote score and a polite reception from the juries rather than it being Sweden's closest rival with them as some have suggested. In general, I think they have already maxed out the potential from a pretty poor song with their national final staging and the rest of the field will catch up or overtake on a level playing field. I'm open to changing my mind with this as I have had to with fellow big 5ers France and The UK the last two years and am keeping it cautiously close everytime it ticks up in the odds. I'm still not at the stage of expecting it to contend but I’ll be interested to see what Eurojury does with this one I’d really take note if it can get a top 3 say.
Israel
This is a really interesting song for me and whilst it can certainly be described as messy I'm on the side that the composite parts come together. This really does build up and I'm sure Israel have thought through the live performance. I have set my expectations high in terms of staging and should they meet them this should find itself somewhere around 3-7 with jurors and televoters on board.
Czechia
Vesna are the jack of all trades this year and if you do have a Czech-list (sorry), this does tick plenty of boxes. Anti-war/solidarity message, appealing to a wide geographic region, “authentic” nature and a good sprinkling of feminism and girl power (which should not be underestimated in boosting jury appeal). Despite that regional appeal on paper, going down the list I don't know where this gets the very big points from and part of the reason for it's relative drift being bigger than others is that it just doesn't feel the standout at anything and has been lost in the pack a little. There are perhaps the biggest live question marks here and I have my doubts how votable the final package will be. 40s is fair cover.
The UK
Performing last in the running order or not, ‘I Wrote A Song’ isn't winning Eurovision. It's one where we really shouldn't need to delve into much analysis but in it's own lose genre it's still behind Sweden, Israel and Norway. I have far more reservations regarding the live and votability of this compared to Israel. To compare the two directly, Israel is built for the stageshow, this is built for the radio. Midtable.
France
Why are France here? Evidently, there are fans of this but it strikes me as the most unrealistically high for what devolves into a very standard retro disco song after a promising open. This further feels like the most vulnerable entry perhaps in the entire contest to the running order. I’d be mildly surprised if this makes the top 10.
Austria
I was too busy channelling my innner Edgar Allen to make much sense in the review but the gist is; the semi 2 win is in their hands but I'm a little concerned around the live performance. Is there any sort of path to victory? Not really. The potential to dominate semi 2 as perhaps the only highlight for televoters opens the door for a heap of momentum but jurors will need to see this high in the odds in order to not slaughter this. The message in this however could help to inflate it with a dig at a lack of financial reward for their craft a good message for ‘music proffersionals’. Overall this has grown on me further and that open goal in semi 2 makes me think this can launch itself well into the top 10.
Italy
A harsh price here in the outright with Italy's track record, Marco's ability as a live performer, this having jury appeal and catering to a so far neglected demographic in this run through. I do think we are under rating ‘Due Vite’ in general and I wouldn't have it chasms below ‘Fai Rumore’ or ‘Brividid’. It's hard to see it having the legs yes but this should be a steady top 10 with both juries and televoters and e/w it's very back able; a jury 3rd, televote 6th kind of outcome is very realistic and could see it place.
Switzerland
You wait for a good ballad to make the list and then two come along at once. There's a lot of potential here however and this could be a very strong jury entry. I’d just be repeating the review but this does tick all the boxes. I don't think anyone is stopping Loreen in the jury vote but Switzerland could be second and are in a reliable pair of hands with Sasha Jean Baptiste on staging. Whilst the televote will inevitably be weaker I do have to stress again that the public don't just rank entries in terms of bpm or how crazy a gimmick is and there's always room for something calmer that is good. In terms of appeal, this is far closer to Gjon than Marius Bear.
Georgia and Armenia
Two more experimental female led entries from the caucasus round of the left hand side (as the odds would have it). Personally I really prefer Brunette's song and I've had it in my head for the last couple of days but Iru feels to have slightly more potential and room for an explosive stageshow. They may eat into each others vote somewhat but both are the alternatives in semi 2 if they impress and/or Austria comes up short. Staging will decide where they fall between 8th or 18th and they're particularly hard to tip for anything or bank on.
Best of The Rest
Croatia are the final country to come in under 200-1 but are 100% hopeless in terms of winning because #JuriesExist. The Finnish appeal is doubtful, the Austrian more dubious, but this is a non-starter. Qualification feels 50/50.
Moldova are worth a mention and should be getting another easy qualification and big televote score. This hits the East hardest of perhaps any entry whilst the West should be down for this too coupled with some Romanian diaspora support. Potential top 10 but again it can't win. My faith in The Netherlands doing anything of note has declined but they're a big enough price to cover and not really care what happens. Serbia holds it's appeal well in the full lineup and I could see them shuffling towards a top 10 with more focused staging and I think that's where anything worth mentioning ends.
The Prediction
As mentioned earlier there's a lot more for the televote to enjoy compared to the juries making the public vote very unpredictable in my view before we get to rehearsals or even the running order for the final.
I'm working from something like this for now although some of the semi 2 Qualifiers are very much placeholders leaning towards diaspora voting;
Sweden
Finland
Ukraine
Switzerland
Israel
Austria
Italy
Moldova
Czechia
Norway
Spain
Serbia
Georgia
Cyprus
The Netherlands
The UK
Armenia
Lithuania
France
Croatia
Estonia
Poland
Denmark
Romania
Slovenia
Germany
In the good old Eurojury Sweden seem the only cert for a top 5 but I'll throw in Switzerland, Israel, Czechia and Finland. Spain, Austria, Italy, Ukraine, Norway to make up the top 10.
My position
I've not really been one for Sweden pre song in recent years but I'm a simple man, I see Loreen in the lineup and I get it covered, especially when whatever comes through rarely drifts. They are a very healthy green and give me plenty of room to maneuver. Ukraine are a backable price particularly as I think the market has over reacted to Maria Sur in Melodifestivalen. They are a small green along with Finland who despite my doubts are unlikely to go anywhere until jury voting. The rest of my book ranges from max red to sizeable greens and I'm sure you can guess where each loosely fall from what I've already said. It is the kind of year where it should be hard to go too far wrong having been on the big favourite early, similar to 2019.