San Remo 2023 Preview
Ah San Remo, four long evenings of class and chaos. The national final in which the Eurovision ticket is very much an afterthought and at times in the past a consolation prize. Most importantly it is home to "The Streak"- if 2/2 correct calls can even qualify as such. Can we continue that run here at escbetting with another correct call? Read on for this year's run down;
Marco Mengoni
When I started to draft this preview a month ago much of it was bemoaning why the obvious favourite wasn't so. On name power, track record and popularity Marco holds a clear advantage over the rest of the field. Since polling at the top of journalist previews by a fair margin the odds finally have him in that favourite position. The 2013 winner is the one to beat again 10 years on and the word from Italy is this could be a pretty comfortable victory. Nothing ground breaking is expected which is the main route through for any challenger.
Giorgia
Giorgia started this season as 3rd favourite but has closed the gap considerably jumping above Ultimo in places. I take this more due to her excellent track record rather than having an above expectations song, there's a good few talked up more. Still there are a few things in her favour and last year saw Elisa put up a strong fight as one of the Italian music legends from a similar era. San Remo results do skew male but there's always room for a female on the podium and Giorgia has the best chance. Much like with Mengoni expect a 4 star classic San Remo style entry.
Ultimo
I have a bit of a problem with Ultimo in that there's that lack of something special there, something to elevevate a song from a 7 out of 10 to a 10/10. That's not to disrespect his music but he's on a par in my opinion with the rest at the top of the odds rather than the standout and that's the problem; as mentioned Mengoni is simply more popular and if both bring typical standard San Remo ballads there is only one winner.
It would seem that the Italian journalists who have heard all the entries would agree with me as he is also well off the pace in the early scorecards. Of course these don't always correlate significantly and he's a strong live performer but it's another concern in backing him when there is such an obvious alternative available fishing in similar waters. Has dropped from 1st-3rd since the odds came out and that seems more reasonable to me. A jury win looks necessary.
Lazza
Representing the urban music scene is Lazza who's found some strong chart performances this last year. He's also received the second highest rating from the press and only act apart from Mengoni to pass the 7/10 mark on averages. Given this he has to be considered for a spot in the superfinal but I would suggest he needs his best work yet to threaten the victory. Mahmood would be the closest parallel but I don't think Lazza is at that level of being able to score consistently.
Collapesce & DiMartino
Participants in the high standard 2021 with one of the hits of that summer in Italy with 'Mussica Legerisima'. That effort just failed to make the podium but there's positive rumblings they have at least matched up to or come close to that song. I'd expect them to make it into the 5 song superfinal or not be far off; there's a fair amount of goodwill for these two and they can gather votes from across the demographics very well. Possibly bringing the only (good) fun entry too. The obvious negative is the lads are far from the strongest vocalists or performers and San Remo exposes that more than other national finals.
Madame
Another of 2021's highlights was Madame and my thoughts at the time were 'one to watch for future editions'. Unfortunately, it's looking unlikely she'll go any better this time around. Staying true to her genre is respectable but this is probably too far out there for the jurors tastes. Add in a bit of negative press around alleged fake covid vaccinations and you have an act that isn't in contention for the win in my opinion. Previews are strong but I think overall she'll settle into a 6th-10th spot.
Elodie
Always a fan favourite, San Remo is rarely kindest to female acts particularly with anything less than a classy ballad. I like her and could see a title push one day but the circumstances would need to be just right. Her more pop song effort has received mixed to positive reviews and again I'm expecting something around the 6th-10th spots.
Ariete
A bit of an unknown quantity on the big stage but from what I've seen she is a promising artist. Unlikely to threaten the bigger names and perhaps more one for the future.
Tananai
An act who's found a fair deal of popularity in Italy, helped by the "success" of his appearance last year. Regardless this is an act that is going to struggle with the jury side. For them to buy into the underdog story would require something more than average and I've seen nothing to suggest that's on the cards.
Mara Sattei
I quite like Mara but she reminds me of Rkomi last year in falling into the same ‘in everyone's top 10 but no-one's favourite’ trap. Solid enough performer with some good songs in her back catalogue but nothing to indicate she's strong enough to threaten the bigger names in the scoreboard.
Coma_Cose
The highest odds act I’m featuring- I must admit I rather enjoyed their entry last year but was completely unsurprised to see it finish in 20th position. The press reports however confirm the insider opinions on them having something stronger this time around. I'm expecting a jury favourite here and a superfinal is possible but it will be tough if not impossible to come through the final 5 against acts with more televoting power. They have also picked up the award for best Lyrics for their song in the last week.
Is there anyone beyond these who can realistically challenge? There's no one to really recommend pre song - whilst an underdog can come through, insider rumblings are usually able to pick up on them early. Instead, it will be worth following the stats and momentum.
Here's my pre contest Prediction on how the super final might shape up:
1. Marco Mengoni
2. Colapesce & Dimartino
3. Georgia
4. Ultimo
5. Lazza
It’s a prediction fairly in line with the odds and with strong parallels to last year (Mengoni = Mahmood, Georgia = Elisa, Colapesce and Dimartino = Gianni Morandi).
One theory I have regarding a 5 song superfinal compared to the previous 3 is that it will be very hard for the least televote friendly and least jury friendly acts respectively to win. Consider this similar to Eurovision; a 1-3 split is powerful, a 1-5 and it becomes much more uncertain.
As for Eurovision we have heard that all entrants have provisionally agreed to represent Italy should they win this year which adds a little more certainty, as has Mengoni stating he would like to go again. Something on a par with “L’Essenziale” in the demographics and standard of the year plus greater appreciation for native language efforts since 2013 would probably stay in the teens and is what I'm assuming.