Melodi Grand Prix (Norway) Preview 2023
Our first 'significant' national final of the year begins tonight and it doesn't take a crystal ball or a loose-lipped lineup of insiders for me to tell you that this edition will be won by a woman. In terms of quality, this is probably the least gender balanced show I can remember. We are also back to having to consider the second chance questions of a couple of years back as 2020's Ulrikke attempts to make it to the Eurovision stage this time making an obvious place to start...
Ulrikke
Ulrikke is back and it's a bit of a let down. One of the problems of this year's Mgp is that every single song sounds like it has been produced in the same studio on the same day by the same people. To be blunt 'Honestly' isn't a noteworthy song and in my opinion there are at least 3 stronger (based of the snippets mind) that I am featuring. There's a lot shoehorned into those 3 minutes and we can expect to add another pyro curtain into the mix when we see this live. Ulrikke will no doubt sell this very well however the main problem in opposing this is of course her popularity and the 2020 angle. The success rate for artists forced to fight for the ticket again in 2021 was 50% (The Roop and Uku Suviste being successful with The Mamas and Aksel falling short) so pretty inconclusive but the bigger names domestically were successfull vs the more left-field 2020 winners. We're pretty certain at this stage we have an exact copy of melfest's scoring system which does weaken Ulrikke vs previous years. In a 100% televote h2h final, she'd be practically impossible to stop given the challengers but bringing the juries in levels things slightly. A worthy strong favourite on name power and lack of one clear challenger.
Maria Celin
There's no country as keen to look to mythology as Norway (seriously we're due a Greek entry about Zeus or The UK to send a King Arthur cosplayer). This year its 'Freya' rather than Thor in the spotlight with a song with obvious staging potential and usp. I can picture this being popular should the presentation be done well and from the snippet there’s nothing too offensive for juries despite the potential for this to come across gimmicky. The most likely challenger.
Akuvi
This is the first time but certainly not the last on these pages that we'll refer to 'Slo-Mo' with this another entry in the Channel/Eleni Foureira mould. It's also a worthy addition to that genre and take the later context and live performances out of the matter and its first impression was just as strong to me. Whether Akuvi and NRK can deliver this live is another question given her very meh 2020 appearance but this is certainly a beneficiary of the new auto-tune being allowed rule. There's also the question of whether Norway is the most receptive to this vs the more typical scandi sounds.
Elsie Bay
The presence of the juries this time around should help Elsie but I'm not convinced she's seriously in the running. I'm not the only one tired with this type of entry and again there is nothing new brought to the table since last year's 'Death of Us'. Fan popularity also exceeds domestic enthusiasm I sense. I’ll be willing to re-evaluate when the full three minutes is out but 33% of the song should be enough to get a handle on this.
Tiril Beisland
Not competitive at all amongst the early stats but I'll give Tiril some love. It's another cookie cutter ballad but a better version in my opinion than the one Ulrikke has. Swap songs and it would be a done deal but I look pretty lonely with that opinion. Looking a long shot but staging and live performance may confirm if this is just supposed to be filler. Even with my thoughts on this being the better song of the two it’s very hard to see how Tiril beats Ulrikke at her own game.
Allessandra
An inclusion based only on the stats and other people's opinions- I would have 'Queen of Kings' nowhere near the podium and qualification isn't a done deal. The international juries will have to have incredibly fan-like tastes for this to go anywhere and even if they do there are better options. Unlikely to challenge Ulrikke or Maria Celin on the televote side either.
Sandra Lyng
The last act worthy of any sort of dark horse mention is Sandra. She'll sell this very convincing no doubt but I can't make much of a case for this to win through above Ulrikke or Maria Cellin who are in similar waters. I guess being fully in Norwegian is the usp but I don't think it's a particularly strong one, particularly when the juries come in.
So my top 3 Prediction overall is:
1. Ulrikke
2. Maria Cellin
3. Akuvi
In terms of competitiveness at MGP, I'd give Ulrikke a pretty certain 9/10- she's beatable, but it's going to take a very strong performance to do so.