The 2023 escbetting Awards
Eurovision month is officially over so it's time for one last look back at the year that's been and honour the good and not so great in the most important, fairest and prestigious awards ceremony around the contest.
Best National Final Choice
Nominees: Croatia, Portugal, Norway, Estonia
This category is for the countries whose result would likely have been much worse otherwise *and* where the winner wasn't an obvious choice which is why you won't see many of the top entries featured.
This is a very competitive category with the criteria I’m using. The two most successful entries here in Allesandra and Alika also had the most competent understudies and would have surely been in the final but a top 10 would be a stretch. It’s always hard to evaluate the Festival de Cancao winner until we get to the Eurovision stage but Mimicat felt at the time and still does feel like the correct choice with many of the alternatives failing to Q. Croatia’s national final was of such a poor standard that Let 3’s result of both a qualification and respectable finish would not have been topped- perhaps the question there is whether this pick was ‘too obvious’ even if very risky and divisive. Overall, it’s a toss-up between Norway and Croatia but I will lean with ‘Queen of Kings’ for the overall impact on the contest and lowly starting position in the mgp odds.
Winner: Norway
Worst National Final Choice
Nominees: Lithuania, Romania, San Marino, Ukraine
More clearly, this is for any country who likely left something significantly better on the table. Romania and San Marino’s national finals were hardly classics to revisit but both featured entries that could have received more than 0 points. Qualification would remain a dubious proposition however so our focus lies elsewhere. Ukraine had two options that would have kept fear in the market far higher for far longer with Krutь and Jerry Heil. Both would have been more worthy of the top 10 and almost surely climbed into the places. Assuming a 3rd place would be the limit however, it's Lithuania who could have seen the biggest jump in their placement in choosing Petunija which would very likely have been your semi 2 winner and in the top 10, if not deep in there considering the draw and diaspora. Heck Beatrice would also have been a far better choice and Ruta Mur at least more interesting if not more succesfull than what we got. The lesson? Don’t blindly support the returning name.
“Winner” : Lithuania
Most Likely To Return
Nominees: Noa Kirel (Israel), Pasha Parfeney (Moldova), Iru (Georgia), Monika Linkyte (Lithuania)
Speaking of returning names…
Usually the smaller music scenes are your best bet here and Moldova are the most obvious call with Pasha Parfeney’s history in the competition as well as the many familiar faces often in the running. Like Pasha, Monika Linkyte has had two appearances already but I wouldn’t discount a 3rd or at least an attempt at some point in the next decade. Iru was seen as a big hope for Georgia that didn’t quite work out, going back in for a second attempt at the senior contest would seem fairly logical although if Georgia continue selecting through The Voice (pro tip- don’t.) her path could be blocked. Whilst the idea of ‘too big for Eurovision’ is a bit outdated in the modern contest, Noa Kirel is already pushing the boundary of having more to lose than gain- I suspect any return would have to be fairly quick and even more serious but if Israel really want to push for the win again they have their best hope there. Overall, I have to go with Pasha however given Moldova’s history.
Winner: Pasha Parfeney (Moldova)
Best Staging
Nominees: Sweden, Italy, Poland, Spain
Sweden were eventually able to get to 90% of their Melfest staging and that alone deserves props (pun intended). ‘Tattoo’ very much brought that stereotypical slick Swedish production that is hard to fault. As mentioned in the grand final preview, Italy's staging felt incredibly overlooked with the subtlety lost on many observers but not the jurors or public. Compare and contrast the addition of a concept and greater emotion vs Marco’s 2013 appearance or the more highly fancied ‘Brividi’ last year. You can't stage a ballad much better. Poland are my country that exceeded expectations the most and deserve a lot of credit for the end product, starting from a very questionable base. There's not a lot of substance there, but they were able to sell this package very well perhaps unexpectedly given their track record. Whilst the result did not go Spain’s way at all, I can still appreciate the artistry and proffersionalism on display with top tier lighting and camerawork and concept. Ultimately, as a song ‘EaEa’ was an outsider to even make it through Benidorm fest with the live performance carrying much of the load. Ultimately, I'm torn between Sweden and Italy for this, but the national final glow-up and improvement on the acts past attempt makes me swing this to Italy.
Winner: Italy
Worst Staging
Nominees: Iceland, Greece, Romania, The Netherlands
Iceland were able to secure the most points from our Nominees by a margin but I still question the decisions made, particularly surrounding the lighting and general lack of a concept. The Netherlands have far more staging misses than successes to be honest and were unable to connect or convey any narrative. Failing to give the song's climax enough ‘oomph’ is an obvious error. Greece's staging was a bit Σhiτ and one of several examples of an inexperienced artist being overexposed. Trying to give this award to anyone other than Romania is futile however. The basics of colour blocking and focal points are poorly handled whilst the graphics almost seem like intentional sabotage. What clinches the award is also the fact this regressed significantly from its national final.
“Winner”: Romania
Best Price of The Year
Nominees: Israel 40s+, Sweden 7s, Belgium 1000, Finland 10+
This category always ends up very hindsight based but is a nice reminder of what sort of book you could have if you played every country perfectly- there's no other betting market like it. I'm generally not the biggest Sweden backer but Loreen floating around made the pre song 7s+ very appealing and result to one side, some of the best blind value. That also applies for Israel who began the season at some sportsbooks priced with or above the likes of Albania, San Marino and a non competing Bulgaria. Pre song 20+ was generous whilst significant value was present e/w. Finland need to get a mention here too with the 10+ at the start of February probably the best balance of value vs certainty (ignoring just the 40+ smash it in odds, as we do for these purposes). At this time, Ukraine had already shown their hand and ‘Tattoo’ hadn't turned up whilst domestic and fan hype was already high. That was the time to hop on board really. Finally so I'm not just listing our top 4 again (Italy were far too long in every market but ultimately didn't win or get the top 3 necessary for later e/w backers) I will nominate Belgium who would have provided one of the best trading opportunities buying high (1000) and selling at the low (around 140). Ultimately, you're not going to see a starting price as high as Israel were with a singer that serious for a long time so they have to take this.
Winner: Israel
Worst Price of The Year
Nominees: Ukraine c.2.8, The UK c.13-20s, Poland around 20s, Ireland under 50s
You might notice a lot of more obvious candidates such as Spain (17s), France (10s) and Norway (8s) missing from my shortlist but I don't want to be too results focused and can understand the logic on all. Poland is our most dubious nominee and a classic example of something in the national final (Gladiator) being overhyped, in terms of prospects there and at Eurovision. Ireland spent the entirety of the season too short but misplaced faith was at it's worst in the run up to their national final where they were several spots higher in the odds than Israel. It was reasonable to be cautious with Ukraine and I'm not really questioning the pre song starting price but rather the early February push back up the odds with ‘Heart of Steel’ already selected. A cautious 10% win chance until Eurojury and metrics really could kick in was fair of which that was well below. Finally, The UK was the worst place to put your money down ‘blindly’ with prices in the teens throughout selection season and single figures on the UK highstreet. Odds were rightly shorter than the old 40s~ range after 2022 but in the top 4 favourites was a dramatic overreaction after one good year despite better rumours than what we got floating around.
Overall, a country under 3s that fails to place has to take the win here.
“Winner": Ukraine
Over-Performance of The Year
Nominees: Estonia, Belgium, Poland, Australia
Reserved for the act who exceeded expectations the most at one time or another and the only winner here is Belgium. Finishing just 60 points behind Ukraine in 7th place would have been quite the call in January, if not the rest of the season too.
False Hype of The Year
Nominees: Czechia, France, The Netherlands, Spain
Going through this category presented A LOT of options and honourable mentions can also go to Georgia, Armenia, Austria, The UK and Slovenia. France reached the highest hights however and are one that collectively the market, the fandom and the jury metrics all got wrong at one point or another whilst their rehearsal photos fit neatly with the criteria too.
Personal Favourite
Nominees: Armenia, Moldova, Italy, Austria
This year was a very typical Eurovision year for me providing 10 or so songs I like, 15 decent to average ones I would never go out of my way to listen to otherwise and the rest ranging from bad to terrible. ‘WTHIE’ just about keeps it's place but there's not a whole lot in it. ‘Due Vite’ has been a big grower throughout the year despite starting strong. ‘Soarele Si Luna’ could potentially have wrestled my top spot but it's repetiveness doesn't help in a retroactive ranking. Brunette's ‘Future Lover’ is my easy pick at this stage as Armenia returns to their usual spot near the top of my rankings after a few years absent/further down.
Personal Low
Nominees: Belgium, Croatia, Greece, San Marino
Whilst I'm a Eurovision fan, I don't particularly go in for something that's sole usp is “look how camp I am” and the juries overating this imo further annoys so it's a dishonourable mention this time for Gustaph. Greece was by far the weakest of the ‘anonymous’ songs for me and is also one where the selection process doesn't redeem any positive feelings. San Marino is just objectively bad but Croatia is dead last by a margin combining that camp again, not particularly clever satire and a truly abysmal song in one messy package.
“Winner”: Croatia