Do You Even Math Bro?
Yesterday we took a look at the short priced favourites that tripped the market up to see what Loreen has in common and what pitfalls Sweden need to avoid. You can find that here, but the short version is there's not much. The Staging question marks remain for the time being but it seems very unlikely there'll be enough of an impact here to derail the win (given the margin I'm currently working to).
Instead I offer this statement:
If Sweden are beat, it’s because we have overlooked something else rather than due to an overlooked issue in ‘Tattoo’ as a package.
Whilst I believe that to be true, its quite a rare scenario where a favourite is topped without screwing something up themselves. You're perhaps looking back 15-20 years for the closest examples where Greece '04 and Russia ‘06 somewhat fit the bill.
That brings us to the question, who, if anyone, are we overlooking? Let's have a look through the contenders where the key sticking point for all will become mathematics…
I'm going to set out my stall now and say Sweden will receive a minimum of 300 jury points and 250 televote points giving a target of 550 for any challenger to reach. Who can get to this?
Finland
The problems are mounting for Finland following Eurojury, a metric that I’d expect to be better for them than the actual jury. Favourite bias should ensure they stay in the top 10 somewhere whilst I’ve said before 300 televote points is a generous limit in my opinion. With the best will in the world, Kaarijaa taps out around the 450 pts mark. Almost certainly somewhere from 2nd-5th overall in my opinion.
Ukraine
Still 3rd favourites but any back to back hopes seem to be over. Tvorchi are seemingly a long way off the levels of support Kalush Orchestra were able to get and you're needing incredibly silent and significant support to come through. I’m assuming c.100 jury points everything considered which already rules them out. The televote is difficult to assign still but I’m assuming only hardcore Ukraine supporters (geo-politically/regionally) and diaspora support with very little else. That's still a fair score but something in the 150-200 pt range I’d guess with little confidence. Overall, 300pts seems a reasonable upper limit estimation but they could slip lower still.
France
We enter less certain territory and one that causes a bit of an issue. Firstly, it's not something I personally rate (as like a contender rather than left hand side type entry) making it difficult to evaluate. The statistics are however impressive, and impressively consistent. Fans love it, Eurojury loved it and reviewers more outside the bubble have been keen too. It's path to victory would surely have to be a 2nd/2nd type of outcome however and it's behind Sweden on both estimates. Overall, anywhere from 200-500 pts, there’s more gas than Finland but more room for under-performance and even at the top end it's struggling to catch Loreen.
Spain
A similar range as to France above. In backing Spain instead you're trading more wide-spread appeal in favour of more staging and live performance security. Spain get a narrow pass from me in terms of their pre contest statistics but I would be expecting slightly stronger if this was to be a really strong challenger: love-Hate entries are fine but I'm not seeing quite enough love yet. They get the widest range of anyone for me with a jury 100-250 possible and a televote anywhere from 50-200 wouldn't surprise. I see them maxing out their potential around 450pts in a dream scemario.
Norway
Returning to more certain territory and Norway look set to finish anywhere from 3rd-7th. You can certainly expect a jury drop from the pre contest metrics but they'll be in the top 10 there and higher with the televote. I have it quite likely we get around 5 countries sat in the 220-270 televote points range and Norway is one of them. I'd guess we're looking around 350 pts total, with Alessandra unlikely to make it into the 400s. Still not in contention for me although post semi stats are probably strong.
Israel
We're expecting big things from ‘Unicorn’ live but this is again something I would have liked to see perform a little better in fan polling and Eurojury (around where the UK is for comparison) if there was truly enough here to challenge. For me, Israel are more than capable of launching themselves into the 400 PT range but 500+ looks way beyond them considering Norway and Sweden as direct rivals. In other words I've wrote off the win part in my e/w bets, but not yet gave up on sneaking a place.
Austria
Like Finland, Austria should have performed better in Eurojury to then drop down a few spots and hope for a televote miracle. In position to dominate semi 2 should their staging be up to scratch which could lead to a boost in the final. A best case scenario probably bags them 150 jury points and 200-250 televote points so a rough absolute limit of 400 again. Playing for a place only and leading contentders for the annual post semi smash.
Italy
The last of our real top 4 contenders are Italy. The market has had Marco as the most capped contender and whilst that is probably fair this is shaping up more than solid. 3rd place in Eurojury was a strong showing and a very repeatable feat in the competition proper whilst Italy are a reliable televote favourite year after year and fill the attractive guy gap at the top of the odds well. Mengoni is well on track to better Mahmood and Blanco's points haul from last year and his own result from a decade ago, although a second half draw night be necessary. Overall, something like 200 jury points, 160 televotes for a 360 total is what i’m working with as a top end result but I don't see them dropping much below that.
The UK sits at the same odds as Italy but I'm going to dismiss them with big concerns over the live performance and votability. Cue Mae being smashed in to 20s with the staging of the year…
Czechia have been a big underperformer coming into this and will do well to see the top 10 now and despite being a ‘Future Lover’ fan I have my doubts over Armenia. Switzerland remain the only long odds entry with room to build on their jury credentials live. I also feel it's easier for jury songs/ballads in general to come through the pack and Cyprus might outperform their odds but it's the opposite in Moldova who come closer to my top 10 prediction.
Sweden
Finland
Italy
France
Austria
Norway
Israel
Ukraine
Spain
Switzerland
Moldova
Cyprus
Czechia
UK
Serbia
Lithuania
Armenia
Georgia
Denmark
Portugal
Belgium
Croatia
Slovenia
Poland
Germany
Australia
So as you can see, if there is something posing a serious threat to Loreen I am blind to it and might be going as high as an 80% win chance for Loreen right now, the most confident I've ever been on the win market at this stage so I'll be quite the fool and certainly not rich should I have it wildly wrong. In more seriousness, I've positioned myself as neutral as possible across the potential threats and am holding ammunition back for whoever can convince more in rehearsals. If at least one of Austria, Switzerland, Israel or Italy could make the top 4 I’d be happy too.